HCA · TickerCove

HCAHCA Healthcare, Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Care Facilitiesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $430.43 · now $430.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HCA has typically landed between $380.96 and $485.03 — a range of −11.5% to +12.7% from the issuance price $430.43.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,882 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-03-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($430.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$430.43 · 38% of range

$360.6 low$543.23 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.7%

typical move · IQR 12.2%

−11.5%worst (p90)+12.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

5 buys · 9 sells · 5 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HCA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $430.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $430.43 (+0.0%)
typical $437.55 (+1.7%)
middle 50% $411.19–$463.9
90% range $380.96–$485.03

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,882 windows spanning 2011-03-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−53.9%	−53.9%	+1.2%
2020-02-14	−48.0%	−48.0%	+0.3%
2020-02-20	−46.8%	−53.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18	+69.8%	+0.0%	+69.8%
2020-03-17	+39.8%	−12.0%	+45.3%
2020-07-08	+38.4%	−1.4%	+38.4%

3,882 overlapping windows · 2011-03-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$84.8B

market cap

$29.08

EPS (TTM)

13.1

P/E (TTM)

2026-10-23

next earnings

Revenue$75.6B

'20'25

Net income$6.8B

'20'25

Free cash flow$7.7B

'20'25

Net margin · by yr9.0%

'20'25

ROE · by yr-112.6%

'20'25

Debt / equity · by yr-8.33

'20'25

Fair value — three views i

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.

DCF (intrinsic)$350.28
Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$797.97
Analyst target · range $369.00–$635.00$510.00
Current price · last close 2026-09-16$430.43

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

73%

+6.4%

n=15

Feb

60%

+1.8%

n=15

Mar

67%

+1.0%

n=15

Apr

31%

+0.2%

n=16

May

44%

+0.8%

n=16

Jun

50%

+1.2%

n=16

Jul

63%

+5.1%

n=16

Aug

56%

+0.3%

n=16

Sep

69%

+0.4%

n=16

Oct

47%

+1.3%

n=15

Nov

60%

+4.3%

n=15

Dec

67%

+1.1%

n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-18	McAlevey Michael R	officer	Sale	1,694 @ $533.37	$904K	−16.1% of holding	−2.6%	−36.3%	8,853	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-11	Berres Jennifer	officer	Sale	4,010 @ $526.16	$2.1M	−25.1% of holding	+4.6%	−35.3%	11,993	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Wyatt Christopher F.	officer	Sale	4,000 @ $505.00	$2.0M	−8.3% of holding	+4.6%	−35.3%	44,379	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11	Berres Jennifer	officer	Sale	4,010 @ $503.00	$2.0M	−20.0% of holding	+4.6%	−35.3%	16,003	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03	HAZEN SAMUEL N	director	Sale	14,716 @ $502.95	$7.4M	−19.6% of holding	+8.3%	−29.9%	60,437	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03	HAZEN SAMUEL N	director	Sale	7,395 @ $500.69	$3.7M	−13.3% of holding	+8.3%	−29.9%	48,040	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03	HAZEN SAMUEL N	director	Sale	6,189 @ $500.02	$3.1M	−12.9% of holding	+8.3%	−29.9%	41,851	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03	HAZEN SAMUEL N	director	Sale	5,162 @ $498.80	$2.6M	−12.3% of holding	+8.3%	−29.9%	36,689	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03	HAZEN SAMUEL N	director	Sale	5,002 @ $502.15	$2.5M	−8.3% of holding	+8.3%	−29.9%	55,435	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03	HAZEN SAMUEL N	director	Sale	4,293 @ $498.12	$2.1M	−11.7% of holding	+8.3%	−29.9%	32,396	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03	Cuffe Michael S.	officer	Sale	1,500 @ $498.09	$747K	−4.8% of holding	+8.3%	−29.9%	30,003	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03	HAZEN SAMUEL N	director	Sale	120 @ $497.18	$60K	−0.4% of holding	+8.3%	−29.9%	32,276	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-05	McAlevey Michael R	officer	Sale	3,892 @ $473.79	$1.8M	−52.7% of holding	+1.7%	−17.2%	3,487	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-08	Cuffe Michael S.	officer	Sale	3,836 @ $418.84	$1.6M	−10.9% of holding	+1.4%	+24.0%	31,503	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13	Foster Jon M	officer	Sale	15,698 @ $369.32	$5.8M	−55.4% of holding	−1.9%	+9.0%	12,646	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-14	Berres Jennifer	officer	Sale	5,378 @ $322.31	$1.7M	−25.9% of holding	+12.6%	+18.9%	15,412	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-14	Berres Jennifer	officer	Sale	4,155 @ $322.95	$1.3M	−16.7% of holding	+12.6%	+18.9%	20,790	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2012-04-03	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	300 @ $26.83	$8K	−100.0% of holding	+0.8%	+20.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 4742 days after the trade
2012-04-03	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	112 @ $26.83	$3K	−100.0% of holding	+0.8%	+20.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 4742 days after the trade
2012-03-19	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	25 @ $25.18	$630	ownership Δ n/a	+10.8%	+21.8%	0	Form 4 · filed 4757 days after the trade
2012-03-16	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	25 @ $25.33	$633	−100.0% of holding	+9.4%	+17.0%	0	Form 4 · filed 4760 days after the trade
2012-03-15	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2 @ $25.34	$51	−100.0% of holding	+9.1%	+14.0%	0	Form 4 · filed 4761 days after the trade
2012-03-09	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	2 @ $25.63	$51	ownership Δ n/a	+3.6%	+8.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 4767 days after the trade
2012-03-08	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	1,580 @ $25.28	$40K	ownership Δ n/a	+4.9%	+10.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 4768 days after the trade
2012-03-08	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	1,300 @ $25.31	$33K	−100.0% of holding	+4.9%	+10.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 4768 days after the trade
2012-03-08	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	100 @ $25.32	$3K	−100.0% of holding	+4.9%	+10.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 4768 days after the trade
2012-03-08	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	80 @ $25.31	$2K	−100.0% of holding	+4.9%	+10.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 4768 days after the trade
2012-02-22	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	200 @ $25.46	$5K	ownership Δ n/a	−6.0%	+6.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 4783 days after the trade
2012-02-22	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	200 @ $25.41	$5K	−100.0% of holding	−6.0%	+6.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 4783 days after the trade
2012-02-17	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	1 @ $25.16	$25	−100.0% of holding	−5.0%	+10.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 4788 days after the trade
2012-02-14	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	32 @ $25.17	$805	−100.0% of holding	−2.8%	+3.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 4791 days after the trade
2012-02-14	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	1 @ $25.10	$25	−100.0% of holding	−2.8%	+3.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 4791 days after the trade
2012-02-13	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	1 @ $27.78	$28	ownership Δ n/a	−1.6%	+2.0%	0	Form 4 · filed 4792 days after the trade
2012-02-07	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	32 @ $29.00	$928	ownership Δ n/a	−7.0%	−4.4%	0	Form 4 · filed 4798 days after the trade
2012-02-03	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	1 @ $26.27	$26	ownership Δ n/a	+2.4%	+3.9%	0	Form 4 · filed 4802 days after the trade
2012-02-02	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	148 @ $24.91	$4K	ownership Δ n/a	+7.4%	+8.9%	0	Form 4 · filed 4803 days after the trade
2012-02-01	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	148 @ $25.15	$4K	−100.0% of holding	+8.3%	+8.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 4804 days after the trade
2012-01-25	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	100 @ $26.59	$3K	ownership Δ n/a	+3.5%	+6.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 4811 days after the trade
2012-01-25	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	100 @ $26.59	$3K	−100.0% of holding	+3.5%	+6.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 4811 days after the trade
2012-01-25	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	100 @ $26.58	$3K	ownership Δ n/a	+3.5%	+6.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 4811 days after the trade
2012-01-25	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	100 @ $26.58	$3K	−100.0% of holding	+3.5%	+6.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 4811 days after the trade
2012-01-13	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	477 @ $23.29	$11K	ownership Δ n/a	+8.3%	+19.3%	0	Form 4 · filed 4823 days after the trade
2012-01-10	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Sale	477 @ $21.90	$10K	−100.0% of holding	+18.9%	+29.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 4826 days after the trade
2011-07-26	BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	670 @ $27.97	$19K	ownership Δ n/a	−17.1%	−4.3%	0	Form 4 · filed 4994 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

144 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-26	McAlevey Michael R	officer	Other acquisition	7,769	0	Form 4
2026-05-07	Marks Mike A	officer	Gift	3,336	46,576	Form 4
2026-05-07	Marks Mike A	officer	Gift	3,336	0	Form 4
2026-04-28	MICHELSON MICHAEL W	director	Award / grant	925	12,576	Form 4
2026-04-28	Riley Wayne Joseph	director	Award / grant	509	15,029	Form 4
2026-04-28	Smith Andrea B	director	Award / grant	509	4,666	Form 4
2026-04-28	Frist William R	director	Award / grant	809	13,740	Form 4
2026-04-28	Johnston Hugh F	director	Award / grant	809	4,475	Form 4
2026-04-28	FRIST THOMAS F III	director	Award / grant	1,041	15,858	Form 4
2026-04-28	DEPARLE NANCY ANN	director	Award / grant	509	21,910	Form 4
2026-04-28	CHIDSEY JOHN	director	Award / grant	809	1,305	Form 4
2026-02-13	McAlevey Michael R	officer	Withheld for tax	3,306	10,547	Form 4
2026-02-13	McAlevey Michael R	officer	Option exercise	5,000	13,853	Form 4
2026-02-13	McAlevey Michael R	officer	Option exercise	5,000	8,860	Form 4
2026-02-10	HAZEN SAMUEL N	director	Withheld for tax	21,323	64,842	Form 4
2026-02-10	Foster Jon M	officer	Withheld for tax	5,888	23,062	Form 4
2026-02-10	Cuffe Michael S.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,501	32,080	Form 4
2026-02-10	McAlevey Michael R	officer	Withheld for tax	3,006	8,853	Form 4
2026-02-10	Berres Jennifer	officer	Withheld for tax	2,515	20,013	Form 4
2026-02-10	Marks Mike A	officer	Withheld for tax	1,690	3,336	Form 4
2026-02-10	Wyatt Christopher F.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,034	48,379	Form 4
2026-02-10	Rossitto Erica	officer	Withheld for tax	418	10,407	Form 4
2026-02-10	Marks Mike A	officer	Award / grant	5,026	5,026	Form 4
2026-02-10	Cuffe Michael S.	officer	Award / grant	9,628	35,581	Form 4
2026-02-10	Foster Jon M	officer	Award / grant	15,696	28,950	Form 4
2026-02-10	HAZEN SAMUEL N	director	Award / grant	54,934	86,165	Form 4
2026-02-10	McAlevey Michael R	officer	Award / grant	8,372	11,859	Form 4
2026-02-10	Rossitto Erica	officer	Award / grant	1,676	10,825	Form 4
2026-02-10	Wyatt Christopher F.	officer	Award / grant	3,350	49,413	Form 4
2026-02-10	Berres Jennifer	officer	Award / grant	7,116	22,528	Form 4
2026-02-06	HERCULES HOLDING II	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	36,629,188	32,282,889	Form 4
2026-02-06	Frist William R	director	Other acquisition	36,557,141	36,557,141	Form 4
2026-02-06	FRIST THOMAS F JR	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	36,557,141	36,557,141	Form 4
2026-02-06	Frisco Holding II	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	36,557,141	36,557,141	Form 4
2026-02-06	Frist William R	director	Other acquisition	36,629,188	0	Form 4
2026-02-06	Frist William R	director	Other acquisition	36,557,141	36,557,141	Form 4
2026-02-06	Frisco Holding II	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	36,629,188	0	Form 4
2026-02-06	Elcan Patricia F	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	36,629,188	0	Form 4
2026-02-06	Elcan Patricia F	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	36,557,141	36,557,141	Form 4
2026-02-06	FRIST THOMAS F JR	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	36,557,141	36,557,141	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Alan Armstrong	Senate	purchase	2026-07-21	2026-03-27	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-06-09	2026-05-15	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-04-07	2026-03-30	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-03-09	2026-02-17	$15–50K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-11-06	2025-10-27	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-11-06	2025-10-27	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-11-06	2025-10-27	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	sale	2025-10-22	2025-09-11	$1–15K
Valerie Hoyle	House	sale	2025-09-12	2024-12-27	$1–15K
Valerie Hoyle	House	purchase	2025-09-12	2024-10-29	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	purchase	2025-09-12	2025-08-19	$1–15K
Jared Moskowitz	House	purchase	2025-06-27	2025-05-15	$1–15K
Jared Moskowitz	House	purchase	2025-06-27	2025-05-15	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-06-10	2025-05-07	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Fair value — three views i

Seasonality · by month i