Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.82 · now $15.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HBAN has typically landed between $13.92 and $18.05 — a range of −12.0% to +14.1% from the issuance price $15.82.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HBAN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.82 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.88 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.92–$16.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.92–$18.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-01-05 | −81.5% | −81.5% | +0.0% |
| 2009-01-02 | −77.2% | −77.2% | +0.0% |
| 2009-01-06 | −76.8% | −81.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-08 | +204.4% | +0.0% | +204.4% |
| 2009-04-09 | +165.3% | +0.0% | +165.3% |
| 2009-04-07 | +121.8% | −2.4% | +121.8% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$35.2B
market cap
$1.34
EPS (TTM)
13.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$12.5B
'20'25
Net income$2.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr17.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr9.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.76
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$1.83
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$21.95
- Analyst target · range $18.00–$22.00$21.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$15.82
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
−0.8%
n=18
Feb
63%
−1.5%
n=19
Mar
47%
−2.0%
n=19
Apr
42%
+4.5%
n=19
May
47%
+1.6%
n=19
Jun
53%
−1.3%
n=19
Jul
63%
+4.1%
n=19
Aug
58%
−0.5%
n=19
Sep
42%
+1.0%
n=19
Oct
56%
+1.8%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.3%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.0%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Kowalski Kendall A | officer | Sale | 27,570 @ $17.20 | $474K | −28.2% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Kowalski Kendall A | officer | Sale | 401 @ $17.20 | $7K | −0.4% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 97,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Hingst Marcy C | officer | Sale | 10,568 @ $18.00 | $190K | −3.8% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 267,859 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Sale | 223,522 @ $17.35 | $3.9M | −26.7% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 612,155 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 4,798 @ $20.30 | $97K | +92.2% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 5,202 @ $20.35 | $106K | ownership Δ n/a | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,202 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 873 @ $16.46 | $14K | +7.8% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 11,127 @ $16.50 | $184K | ownership Δ n/a | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Kleinman Scott D | officer | Sale | 19,425 @ $16.20 | $315K | −4.0% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 464,336 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 3,029 @ $21.05 | $64K | +46.8% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 6,500 @ $17.09 | $111K | +130.0% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 1,971 @ $21.05 | $41K | +43.8% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Kleinman Scott D | officer | Sale | 65,530 @ $15.28 | $1.0M | −12.0% of holding | +5.2% | −4.4% | 481,676 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | STEINOUR STEPHEN D | director | Purchase | 32,277 @ $15.49 | $500K | +2.3% of holding | +5.2% | −4.4% | 1,442,845 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Nateri Prashant | officer | Sale | 10,171 @ $15.50 | $158K | −10.8% of holding | +5.2% | −4.4% | 83,819 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 1,091 @ $25.39 | $28K | +38.0% of holding | +2.5% | −7.6% | 3,964 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 36 @ $25.38 | $914 | +0.9% of holding | +2.5% | −7.6% | 4,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 85 @ $17.65 | $2K | +1.7% of holding | +0.1% | −8.7% | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 4,915 @ $17.65 | $87K | ownership Δ n/a | −0.8% | −12.6% | 4,915 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 500 @ $21.40 | $11K | +12.5% of holding | −1.9% | −12.2% | 4,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $21.75 | $87K | ownership Δ n/a | −2.0% | −10.1% | 4,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | ROLLINS JAMES D III | director | Purchase | 2,873 @ $25.38 | $73K | ownership Δ n/a | −2.0% | −10.1% | 2,873 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | TORGOW GARY | director | Purchase | 14,200 @ $17.81 | $253K | +1.5% of holding | −9.6% | −14.9% | 943,341 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Lawlor Brendan A | officer | Sale | 17,200 @ $18.93 | $326K | −28.9% of holding | −12.9% | −14.2% | 42,398 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Lawlor Brendan A | officer | Sale | 255 @ $18.94 | $5K | −0.3% of holding | −12.9% | −14.2% | 76,631 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Standridge Brantley J | director | Sale | 5,830 @ $19.14 | $112K | −1.7% of holding | −12.2% | −19.6% | 327,676 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Dhingra Amit | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $18.50 | $185K | −6.0% of holding | +2.2% | −10.3% | 155,634 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Kowalski Kendall A | officer | Sale | 2,481 @ $17.80 | $44K | −3.4% of holding | −1.4% | −11.6% | 71,566 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Hingst Marcy C | officer | Sale | 12,832 @ $18.00 | $231K | −5.1% of holding | −2.4% | −12.2% | 239,473 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Kowalski Kendall A | officer | Sale | 1,547 @ $17.93 | $28K | −1.3% of holding | −2.4% | −12.2% | 115,643 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Houston Helga | officer | Sale | 64,587 @ $15.38 | $993K | −10.8% of holding | +8.0% | −11.6% | 534,640 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Hingst Marcy C | officer | Sale | 6,416 @ $15.65 | $100K | −2.5% of holding | +11.0% | −9.7% | 252,305 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Inglis John C | director | Purchase | 6,506 @ $15.30 | $100K | +7.8% of holding | +10.6% | −0.9% | 89,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
267 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Miller Timothy W | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,465 | 74,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | NEU RICHARD W | director | Award / grant | 2,965 | 119,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Sit Roger J | director | Award / grant | 1,803 | 50,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Shea Teresa H | director | Award / grant | 866 | 11,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | CRANE ANN B | director | Award / grant | 1,803 | 106,276 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Diaz-Granados Rafael | director | Award / grant | 2,489 | 37,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | CRANE ANN B | director | Award / grant | 886 | 104,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Kline Katherine M. A. | director | Award / grant | 43 | 5,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wasserman Zachary Jacob | officer | Award / grant | 2,245 | 393,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Diaz-Granados Rafael | director | Award / grant | 295 | 34,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Phelan Kenneth J | director | Award / grant | 914 | 107,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Kleinman Scott D | officer | Award / grant | 3 | 366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Diaz-Granados Rafael | director | Award / grant | 393 | 46,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Standridge Brantley J | director | Award / grant | 2,345 | 447,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dhingra Amit | officer | Award / grant | 61 | 7,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | White Donnell R | officer | Award / grant | 161 | 26,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tate Jeffrey L. | director | Award / grant | 44 | 5,203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | White Donnell R | officer | Award / grant | 11 | 1,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dhingra Amit | officer | Award / grant | 600 | 181,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Maloney Nancy E | officer | Award / grant | 1,414 | 165,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | STEINOUR STEPHEN D | director | Award / grant | 483 | 56,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | NEU RICHARD W | director | Award / grant | 986 | 116,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Miller Timothy W | officer | Award / grant | 640 | 76,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | NEU RICHARD W | director | Award / grant | 1,520 | 491,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | STEINOUR STEPHEN D | director | Award / grant | 6,030 | 1,461,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Kleinman Scott D | officer | Award / grant | 1,847 | 466,183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Kowalski Kendall A | officer | Award / grant | 594 | 97,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nateri Prashant | officer | Award / grant | 475 | 84,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Kowalski Kendall A | officer | Award / grant | 59 | 6,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Kline Katherine M. A. | director | Award / grant | 854 | 100,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Pohmer Sarah E | officer | Award / grant | 1,438 | 168,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Santhanakrishnan Senthilkumar | officer | Award / grant | 709 | 83,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Phelan Kenneth J | director | Award / grant | 527 | 62,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | PORTEOUS DAVID L | director | Award / grant | 128 | 14,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Shea Teresa H | director | Award / grant | 93 | 10,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sit Roger J | director | Award / grant | 1,577 | 207,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Rodriguez Alice L | director | Award / grant | 80 | 17,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | CRANE ANN B | director | Award / grant | 1,307 | 234,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Inglis John C | director | Award / grant | 1,057 | 113,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | PORTEOUS DAVID L | director | Award / grant | 582 | 67,424 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Tina Smith | Senate | sale | 2025-11-26 | 2025-11-21 | $100–250K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-09 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-09 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-12 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.