HAYWHayward Holdings, Inc.Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.93 · now $12.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HAYW has typically landed between $10.82 and $15.26 — a range of −16.3% to +18.0% from the issuance price $12.93.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,364 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HAYW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$10.82worst · -16.3%$15.26best · +18.0%
  • now $12.93 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.85 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.98–$13.71
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.82–$15.26
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,364 windows spanning 2021-03-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2021-12-28−28.4%−28.4%+5.3%
2021-12-27−27.8%−27.8%+4.5%
2022-06-28−26.4%−26.4%+0.0%
3 best
2021-04-15+50.2%−0.7%+50.2%
2022-12-30+48.4%+0.0%+48.4%
2021-04-16+47.5%−0.9%+49.9%

1,364 overlapping windows · 2021-03-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+2.7%
n=5
Feb
20%
−0.9%
n=5
Mar
20%
−5.7%
n=5
Apr
50%
+2.2%
n=6
May
50%
+3.2%
n=6
Jun
50%
+3.5%
n=6
Jul
50%
−0.5%
n=6
Aug
50%
−2.4%
n=6
Sep
33%
−4.1%
n=6
Oct
80%
+0.3%
n=5
Nov
60%
+3.5%
n=5
Dec
40%
+1.9%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$17$132026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $692K — HOLLERAN KEVIN2026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $53K — Canning Susan M.2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $766K — HOLLERAN KEVIN2026-07-01: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — HOLLERAN KEVIN2026-06-30: 1 insider sale, $854K — HOLLERAN KEVIN2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $722K — HOLLERAN KEVIN2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $764K — HOLLERAN KEVIN2026-04-30: 1 insider purchase, $29K — Canning Susan M.2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $703K — HOLLERAN KEVIN2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $219K — Jones Eifion2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $824K — HOLLERAN KEVIN2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $841K — HOLLERAN KEVIN2026-01-05: 1 insider sale, $838K — HOLLERAN KEVIN2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $977K — HOLLERAN KEVIN2025-11-03: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — HOLLERAN KEVIN2025-10-29: 1 insider sale, $438K — Jones Eifion2025-10-01: 1 insider sale, $918K — HOLLERAN KEVIN2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $952K — HOLLERAN KEVIN2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $330K — Jones Eifion2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.3M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $952K2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $1.4M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $1.0M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $977K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $838K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $841K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $1.0M2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $29K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $703K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $764K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $2.1M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $818K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $692K↑ buys↓ salesdirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Canning Susan M. — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed same daydirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2026-06-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Canning Susan M. — Purchase on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Jones Eifion — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Jones Eifion — Sale on 2025-10-29, filed 2 days after the tradedirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HOLLERAN KEVIN — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Jones Eifion — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale50,000 @ $13.85$692K−6.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open701,234Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Canning Susan M.officerSale3,500 @ $15.00$53K−2.0% of holding−10.0%not yet — horizon still open171,411Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale50,000 @ $15.31$766K−6.7% of holding−12.6%not yet — horizon still open701,234Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-01HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale120,000 @ $17.28$2.1M−14.6% of holding−11.0%not yet — horizon still open701,234Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-30HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale50,000 @ $17.07$854K−6.7% of holding−10.5%not yet — horizon still open701,234Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale52,389 @ $13.79$722K−7.0% of holding+22.6%not yet — horizon still open701,234Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale52,389 @ $14.57$764K−7.0% of holding−7.1%not yet — horizon still open701,234Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-30Canning Susan M.officerPurchase2,242 @ $12.76$29K+2.2% of holding−12.2%not yet — horizon still open103,837Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-01HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale52,389 @ $13.42$703K−7.0% of holding+1.6%not yet — horizon still open701,234Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09Jones EifionofficerSale15,000 @ $14.57$219K−4.5% of holding−3.8%−22.5%316,100Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale52,389 @ $15.73$824K−6.5% of holding−11.3%−24.4%748,540Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale52,389 @ $16.05$841K−7.8% of holding−2.2%−11.6%623,540Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale52,390 @ $15.99$838K−7.8% of holding+2.4%−9.0%623,540Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-05HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale60,571 @ $16.13$977K−8.9% of holding−4.0%−16.7%623,540Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-03HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale60,571 @ $16.74$1.0M−8.9% of holding−1.2%−17.8%623,540Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-29Jones EifionofficerSale25,000 @ $17.50$438K−8.0% of holding−3.6%−17.8%287,231Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-01HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale60,571 @ $15.16$918K−8.9% of holding+11.3%−10.9%623,540Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-03HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale60,571 @ $15.72$952K−8.9% of holding−5.1%−7.7%623,540Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13Jones EifionofficerSale20,000 @ $16.50$330K−6.5% of holding−7.5%−6.2%287,231Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale60,571 @ $15.27$925K−8.9% of holding−1.3%−9.7%623,540Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-30Jones EifionofficerSale15,000 @ $15.50$233K−5.0% of holding+2.7%−4.4%287,231Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-03HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale60,571 @ $14.20$860K−8.9% of holding+7.9%+1.2%623,540Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-01Jones EifionofficerSale10,000 @ $14.50$145K−3.4% of holding+6.3%−0.6%287,231Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-16HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale60,574 @ $13.71$831K−8.9% of holding+2.2%+2.3%623,540Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10Jones EifionofficerSale30,000 @ $14.31$429K−9.5% of holding+0.8%−4.2%287,231Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03MSD Partners, L.P.directorSale153,474 @ $13.92$2.1M−11.4% of holding−4.5%+1.1%1,192,998Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-05HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale50,000 @ $14.06$703K−7.4% of holding−5.0%−4.2%623,540Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-03HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale50,000 @ $12.52$626K−7.4% of holding+8.0%−1.2%623,540Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale50,000 @ $14.08$704K−7.4% of holding+0.9%−2.7%623,540Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale50,000 @ $14.52$726K−8.7% of holding+4.6%+3.0%522,799Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorSale50,000 @ $15.32$766K−8.7% of holding−9.1%−11.2%522,799Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-11-06MSD Partners, L.P.directorSale73,459 @ $16.38$1.2M−5.6% of holding−4.6%−9.0%1,231,935Form 4 · filed 211 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

155 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise50,000751,234Form 4
2026-09-01HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise50,0001,930,236Form 4
2026-08-03HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise50,000751,234Form 4
2026-08-03Lewis Raymond H JRofficerWithheld for tax1,23645,970Form 4
2026-08-03Gallagher KevinofficerWithheld for tax1,13235,924Form 4
2026-08-03Ramirez Dario VicarioofficerWithheld for tax59811,570Form 4
2026-08-03HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise50,0001,980,236Form 4
2026-07-30Soucy Arthur LdirectorAward / grant1,50161,576Form 4
2026-07-30Felice Stephen JdirectorAward / grant2,152366,485Form 4
2026-07-30Keating Ronald CdirectorAward / grant1,50160,672Form 4
2026-07-30Brown Kevin D.directorAward / grant1,5013,222,933Form 4
2026-07-01HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise120,000821,234Form 4
2026-07-01HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise120,0002,030,236Form 4
2026-06-30HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise50,000751,234Form 4
2026-06-30HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise50,0002,150,236Form 4
2026-06-06Canning Susan M.officerAward / grant71,074174,911Form 4
2026-06-01HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise52,389753,623Form 4
2026-06-01HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise52,3892,200,236Form 4
2026-05-21WALKER LORI AdirectorAward / grant10,60859,407Form 4
2026-05-21Brown Kevin D.directorAward / grant10,6083,221,432Form 4
2026-05-21Dayhoff DianedirectorAward / grant10,60857,407Form 4
2026-05-21Felice Stephen JdirectorAward / grant16,094364,333Form 4
2026-05-21Keating Ronald CdirectorAward / grant10,60859,171Form 4
2026-05-21Soucy Arthur LdirectorAward / grant10,60860,075Form 4
2026-05-21Silber Lawrence HarrisdirectorAward / grant10,60867,407Form 4
2026-05-21Ward Edward DdirectorAward / grant10,60850,055Form 4
2026-05-05HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise52,389753,623Form 4
2026-05-05HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise52,3892,252,625Form 4
2026-05-04Sejourne EricofficerWithheld for tax2,21563,178Form 4
2026-04-30Keating Ronald CdirectorAward / grant1,41648,563Form 4
2026-04-30Brown Kevin D.directorAward / grant1,4163,210,824Form 4
2026-04-30Felice Stephen JdirectorAward / grant2,082348,239Form 4
2026-04-30Soucy Arthur LdirectorAward / grant1,41649,467Form 4
2026-04-01HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise52,389753,623Form 4
2026-04-01HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorOption exercise52,3892,305,014Form 4
2026-03-09Jones EifionofficerOption exercise15,000331,100Form 4
2026-03-09Jones EifionofficerOption exercise15,000905,375Form 4
2026-03-04HOLLERAN KEVINdirectorWithheld for tax18,919701,234Form 4
2026-03-04Jones EifionofficerWithheld for tax4,821316,100Form 4
2026-03-04Canning Susan M.officerWithheld for tax3,235101,595Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.