HAWKHawkEye 360, Inc.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.17 · now $16.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HAWK has typically landed between $10.65 and $21.03 — a range of −34.1% to +30.0% from the issuance price $16.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

70 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-05-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HAWK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$10.65worst · -34.1%$21.03best · +30.0%
  • now $16.17 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.8 (-20.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.16–$15.44
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.65–$21.03
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 70 windows spanning 2026-05-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-05-26−39.4%−39.4%+1.7%
2026-05-29−38.7%−40.4%+0.0%
2026-06-01−35.6%−37.9%+0.0%
3 best
2026-07-08+30.7%−7.8%+30.7%
2026-07-13+28.4%−10.7%+28.9%
2026-07-14+27.4%−10.1%+29.8%

70 overlapping windows · 2026-05-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$35$162026-09-11: 1 insider sale, $821K — MONEY ARTHUR L2026-05-08: 2 insider purchases, $380K — Finelli Francis Alphonse …2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $380K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $821K↑ buys↓ salesdirector MONEY ARTHUR L — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Finelli Francis Alphonse — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Finelli Francis Alphonse — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11MONEY ARTHUR LdirectorSale50,000 @ $16.41$821K−47.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open54,545Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-08Finelli Francis AlphonsedirectorPurchase9,615 @ $26.00$250Kownership Δ n/a−26.6%not yet — horizon still open9,615Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-08Finelli Francis AlphonsedirectorPurchase5,000 @ $26.00$130K+14.3% of holding−26.6%not yet — horizon still open40,026Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

297 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11MONEY ARTHUR LdirectorOption exercise50,000104,545Form 4
2026-09-11MONEY ARTHUR LdirectorOption exercise50,00067,136Form 4
2026-06-03MONEY ARTHUR LdirectorOption exercise45,00054,545Form 4
2026-06-03MONEY ARTHUR LdirectorOption exercise4,0008,545Form 4
2026-06-03MONEY ARTHUR LdirectorOption exercise1,0009,545Form 4
2026-06-03MONEY ARTHUR LdirectorOption exercise45,00030,000Form 4
2026-06-03MONEY ARTHUR LdirectorOption exercise1,0000Form 4
2026-06-03MONEY ARTHUR LdirectorOption exercise4,0000Form 4
2026-05-08Spoto MarkdirectorConversion83,4020Form 4
2026-05-08DEWALT DAVID GdirectorConversion33,9090Form 4
2026-05-08Serafini John SheldondirectorConversion4,5450Form 4
2026-05-08DEWALT DAVID GdirectorConversion84,7510Form 4
2026-05-08Spoto MarkdirectorConversion311,1860Form 4
2026-05-08DEWALT DAVID GdirectorOption exercise13,5350Form 4
2026-05-08NightDragon Growth II, L.P.otherConversion271,1020Form 4
2026-05-08NightDragon Growth I, L.P.otherOption exercise85,2730Form 4
2026-05-08DEWALT DAVID GdirectorConversion12,2470Form 4
2026-05-08Serafini John SheldondirectorConversion8510Form 4
2026-05-08Spoto MarkdirectorConversion313,0730Form 4
2026-05-08DEWALT DAVID GdirectorConversion278,6350Form 4
2026-05-08Spoto MarkdirectorConversion1,371,3020Form 4
2026-05-08Winnefeld James A JrdirectorConversion6,3630Form 4
2026-05-08DEWALT DAVID GdirectorConversion263,3980Form 4
2026-05-08Serafini John SheldondirectorConversion3,1810Form 4
2026-05-08DEWALT DAVID GdirectorConversion15,0390Form 4
2026-05-08NightDragon Growth I, L.P.otherConversion212,0500Form 4
2026-05-08NightDragon Growth II, L.P.otherConversion263,3980Form 4
2026-05-08NightDragon Growth I, L.P.otherConversion36,1960Form 4
2026-05-08NightDragon Growth II, L.P.otherConversion1,060,2520Form 4
2026-05-08Spoto MarkdirectorConversion343,9340Form 4
2026-05-08DEWALT DAVID GdirectorConversion116,8250Form 4
2026-05-08Spoto MarkdirectorConversion835,7400Form 4
2026-05-08NightDragon Growth II, L.P.otherConversion33,9090Form 4
2026-05-08NightDragon Growth I, L.P.otherConversion220,1620Form 4
2026-05-08NightDragon Growth I, L.P.otherConversion278,6350Form 4
2026-05-08NightDragon Growth II, L.P.otherConversion101,4770Form 4
2026-05-08Serafini John SheldondirectorConversion46,5690Form 4
2026-05-08NightDragon Growth I, L.P.otherOption exercise13,5350Form 4
2026-05-08NightDragon Growth II, L.P.otherConversion299,9170Form 4
2026-05-08DEWALT DAVID GdirectorOption exercise85,2730Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.