Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.40 · now $36.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HASI has typically landed between $28.51 and $44.34 — a range of −21.7% to +21.8% from the issuance price $36.40.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,353 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-04-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HASI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $36.4 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.84 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $33.92–$39.75
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $28.51–$44.34
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −55.8% | −55.8% | +5.2% |
| 2020-02-20 | −54.2% | −56.8% | +2.8% |
| 2020-02-21 | −53.0% | −58.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +65.5% | +0.0% | +65.5% |
| 2020-04-03 | +62.5% | +0.0% | +68.1% |
| 2022-07-12 | +55.4% | +0.0% | +55.4% |
3,353 overlapping windows · 2013-04-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-17 | Eckel Jeffrey | director | Sale | 124,998 @ $39.22 | $4.9M | −27.5% of holding | −5.2% | −5.1% | 330,171 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Eckel Jeffrey | director | Sale | 9,400 @ $39.34 | $370K | −50.9% of holding | −5.2% | −5.1% | 9,050 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
45 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | ARDISANA LIZABETH A | director | Award / grant | 5,574 | 21,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Armbrister Clarence D | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 23,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Brenner Teresa | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 30,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Eckel Jeffrey | director | Award / grant | 8,698 | 13,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Floyd Nancy C | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 23,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Reed Kimberly A. | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 18,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Welch Barry Edward | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 8,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Schulte Laura Ann | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 8,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | OSGOOD STEVEN G | director | Award / grant | 6,861 | 55,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Whicher Michelle | officer | Withheld for tax | 961 | 19,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Pangburn Marc T. | officer | Other acquisition | 100,500 | 256,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Freer-Greene Christy Ledet | officer | Award / grant | 17,500 | 17,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Whicher Michelle | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,238 | 20,045 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Viral Amin A | officer | Withheld for tax | 679 | 4,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Lipson Jeffrey | officer | Award / grant | 238,500 | 1,017,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Pangburn Marc T. | officer | Award / grant | 100,500 | 356,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Gopalakrishnan Nitya | officer | Award / grant | 28,500 | 48,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Melko Charles | officer | Award / grant | 34,500 | 121,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Whicher Michelle | officer | Award / grant | 10,246 | 10,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Nickey Susan D | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 258,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Viral Amin A | officer | Award / grant | 20,645 | 56,843 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-16 | Gopalakrishnan Nitya | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Eckel Jeffrey | director | Award / grant | 5,166 | 754,627 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | ARDISANA LIZABETH A | director | Award / grant | 5,166 | 16,414 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | OSGOOD STEVEN G | director | Award / grant | 9,975 | 49,101 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Brenner Teresa | director | Award / grant | 5,166 | 27,234 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Floyd Nancy C | director | Award / grant | 5,166 | 19,998 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Armbrister Clarence D | director | Award / grant | 5,166 | 19,998 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Welch Barry Edward | director | Award / grant | 5,166 | 5,166 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Schulte Laura Ann | director | Award / grant | 5,166 | 5,166 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | OSBORNE RICHARD J | director | Award / grant | 5,166 | 27,234 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Reed Kimberly A. | director | Award / grant | 5,166 | 14,733 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | O'Neil Charles | director | Award / grant | 5,166 | 27,234 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | Whicher Michelle | officer | Withheld for tax | 629 | 23,648 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | Brenner Teresa | director | Gift | 2,000 | 10,360 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Viral Amin A | officer | Withheld for tax | 679 | 4,757 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Whicher Michelle | officer | Withheld for tax | 669 | 24,277 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Melko Charles | officer | Award / grant | 33,000 | 91,681 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Rose Nathaniel | other | Award / grant | 40,608 | 311,541 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Lipson Jeffrey | officer | Award / grant | 274,500 | 836,729 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.