HAS · TickerCove

HASHasbro, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Leisureas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $89.30 · now $89.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HAS has typically landed between $77.20 and $102.27 — a range of −13.6% to +14.5% from the issuance price $89.30.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($89.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$89.3 · 57% of range

$69.25 low$104.36 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.3%

typical move · IQR 12.6%

−13.6%worst (p90)+14.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

7 buys · 7 sells · 4 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HAS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $89.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $89.3 (+0.0%)
typical $90.46 (+1.3%)
middle 50% $84.84–$96.08
90% range $77.2–$102.27

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-13	−53.9%	−53.9%	+2.0%
2020-02-20	−53.4%	−54.8%	+0.0%
2020-02-14	−52.2%	−54.2%	+1.2%
3 best
2020-03-18	+60.6%	−1.5%	+61.6%
2020-03-19	+60.0%	−2.5%	+60.0%
2020-03-16	+59.9%	+0.0%	+69.2%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$12.6B

market cap

$5.56

EPS (TTM)

16.0

P/E (TTM)

2026-10-22

next earnings

Revenue$4.7B

'20'25

Net income−$322M

'20'25

Free cash flow$830M

'20'25

Net margin · by yr-6.9%

'23'25

ROE · by yr-59.9%

'23'25

Debt / equity · by yr6.32

'23'25

Fair value — three views i

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.

DCF (intrinsic)$78.52
Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$132.45
Analyst target · range $85.00–$123.00$110.00
Current price · last close 2026-09-16$89.30

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

56%

+0.5%

n=18

Feb

74%

+3.3%

n=19

Mar

68%

+1.1%

n=19

Apr

95%

+6.9%

n=19

May

47%

−0.7%

n=19

Jun

47%

+0.9%

n=19

Jul

68%

+3.6%

n=19

Aug

53%

+1.1%

n=19

Sep

42%

−1.7%

n=19

Oct

50%

−2.1%

n=18

Nov

72%

+2.0%

n=18

Dec

39%

−1.9%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-31	Barbacovi Holly	officer	Sale	5,057 @ $94.20	$476K	−11.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	37,486	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19	Hight John	officer	Sale	11,593 @ $94.63	$1.1M	−23.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	38,597	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-17	Hight John	officer	Sale	11,229 @ $96.29	$1.1M	−18.3% of holding	−2.9%	not yet — horizon still open	50,190	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07	Hamren Elizabeth	director	Sale	1,975 @ $92.84	$183K	−16.6% of holding	−2.5%	not yet — horizon still open	9,896	Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2026-08-04	Hamren Elizabeth	director	Sale	989 @ $90.42	$89K	−7.7% of holding	+3.0%	not yet — horizon still open	11,871	Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2026-07-31	GOETTER GINA M	officer	Sale	8,265 @ $93.96	$777K	−9.4% of holding	−2.5%	not yet — horizon still open	79,839	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-30	Hight John	officer	Sale	3,186 @ $93.71	$299K	−4.5% of holding	−4.0%	not yet — horizon still open	67,557	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-28	GOETTER GINA M	officer	Sale	11,000 @ $95.44	$1.0M	−11.1% of holding	−3.5%	not yet — horizon still open	88,104	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28	KILPIN TIMOTHY J.	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $94.25	$942K	−15.6% of holding	−3.5%	not yet — horizon still open	54,229	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28	KILPIN TIMOTHY J.	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $92.00	$920K	−15.6% of holding	−3.5%	not yet — horizon still open	54,229	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26	Cocks Christian P	director	Sale	191,211 @ $100.32	$19.2M	−38.3% of holding	−4.0%	−17.9%	308,510	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-26	Cocks Christian P	director	Sale	5,200 @ $100.85	$524K	−1.7% of holding	−4.0%	−17.9%	303,310	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20	Barbacovi Holly	officer	Sale	4,337 @ $100.97	$438K	−9.2% of holding	−3.7%	−18.7%	42,753	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-13	KILPIN TIMOTHY J.	officer	Sale	7,773 @ $103.00	$801K	−17.5% of holding	−6.7%	−20.5%	36,528	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-12	Cocks Christian P	director	Sale	100,920 @ $102.63	$10.4M	−23.4% of holding	−6.2%	−18.6%	330,522	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-12	Cocks Christian P	director	Sale	73,324 @ $105.40	$7.7M	−22.4% of holding	−6.2%	−18.6%	254,354	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-12	Sibley Tarrant L.	officer	Sale	15,148 @ $104.98	$1.6M	−23.2% of holding	−6.2%	−18.6%	50,174	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12	GOETTER GINA M	officer	Sale	12,429 @ $103.46	$1.3M	−15.4% of holding	−6.2%	−18.6%	68,221	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12	Cocks Christian P	director	Sale	4,493 @ $106.48	$478K	−1.8% of holding	−6.2%	−18.6%	249,861	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-12	Cocks Christian P	director	Sale	2,844 @ $103.54	$294K	−0.9% of holding	−6.2%	−18.6%	327,678	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-12	Bunge Jason M	officer	Sale	2,380 @ $106.03	$252K	−6.4% of holding	−6.2%	−18.6%	35,005	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-10	Cochran Hope F	director	Sale	4,000 @ $77.24	$309K	−19.0% of holding	+5.2%	+12.7%	17,102	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-28	Thomson Roberta K	officer	Sale	2,500 @ $81.13	$203K	−4.9% of holding	−8.3%	+17.0%	48,801	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-27	KILPIN TIMOTHY J.	officer	Sale	8,557 @ $81.44	$697K	−16.2% of holding	−10.0%	+17.4%	44,301	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-21	Cocks Christian P	director	Sale	19,000 @ $78.90	$1.5M	−6.8% of holding	−11.1%	+17.8%	258,661	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21	Cocks Christian P	director	Sale	8,800 @ $78.97	$695K	−3.4% of holding	−11.1%	+17.8%	249,861	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-14	Thomson Roberta K	officer	Sale	1,002 @ $79.81	$80K	−1.9% of holding	−7.3%	+23.2%	51,301	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

118 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-26	Hamren Elizabeth	director	Gift	1,500	8,396	Form 4
2026-08-26	Hamren Elizabeth	director	Gift	1,500	8,396	Form 4
2026-08-26	Hamren Elizabeth	director	Gift	1,500	8,396	Form 4
2026-08-26	Hamren Elizabeth	director	Gift	1,500	8,396	Form 4
2026-08-15	Hight John	officer	Withheld for tax	6,977	60,580	Form 4
2026-08-15	Barbacovi Holly	officer	Withheld for tax	6,891	41,894	Form 4
2026-08-15	Hight John	officer	Award / grant	1,384	61,964	Form 4
2026-08-15	Barbacovi Holly	officer	Award / grant	1,187	43,081	Form 4
2026-08-15	Hight John	officer	Withheld for tax	545	61,419	Form 4
2026-08-15	Barbacovi Holly	officer	Withheld for tax	538	42,543	Form 4
2026-07-28	KILPIN TIMOTHY J.	officer	Option exercise	20,000	14,436	Form 4
2026-07-28	KILPIN TIMOTHY J.	officer	Option exercise	10,000	64,229	Form 4
2026-06-30	Gersh Lisa	director	Award / grant	783	46,031	Form 4
2026-06-30	Bowser Douglas S	director	Award / grant	419	712	Form 4
2026-06-30	Stoddart Richard S	director	Award / grant	144	17,049	Form 4
2026-06-11	Richie Laurel	director	Award / grant	2,224	15,311	Form 4
2026-06-11	Vernon Carla	director	Award / grant	2,224	2,974	Form 4
2026-06-11	Mahoney Owen	director	Award / grant	2,224	8,245	Form 4
2026-06-11	Hamren Elizabeth	director	Award / grant	2,224	12,860	Form 4
2026-06-11	Bowser Douglas S	director	Award / grant	2,224	2,974	Form 4
2026-06-11	Cochran Hope F	director	Award / grant	2,224	19,326	Form 4
2026-06-11	GIBEAU FRANK D	director	Award / grant	2,224	8,245	Form 4
2026-06-11	Gersh Lisa	director	Award / grant	2,224	37,528	Form 4
2026-06-11	HARRIS DARIN S	director	Award / grant	2,224	8,245	Form 4
2026-06-11	Stoddart Richard S	director	Award / grant	2,224	44,340	Form 4
2026-05-17	GOETTER GINA M	officer	Withheld for tax	9,796	69,968	Form 4
2026-05-17	KILPIN TIMOTHY J.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,939	33,452	Form 4
2026-05-17	Bunge Jason M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,469	41,282	Form 4
2026-05-15	Bunge Jason M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,037	42,533	Form 4
2026-03-31	Gersh Lisa	director	Award / grant	686	45,248	Form 4
2026-03-31	Bowser Douglas S	director	Award / grant	293	293	Form 4
2026-03-31	Stoddart Richard S	director	Award / grant	125	16,905	Form 4
2026-03-16	Barbacovi Holly	officer	Award / grant	6,918	48,372	Form 4
2026-03-16	Hight John	officer	Award / grant	10,695	70,199	Form 4
2026-03-16	Cocks Christian P	director	Award / grant	56,144	322,439	Form 4
2026-03-16	GOETTER GINA M	officer	Award / grant	21,389	78,294	Form 4
2026-03-16	Sibley Tarrant L.	officer	Award / grant	8,422	64,285	Form 4
2026-03-16	Bunge Jason M	officer	Award / grant	4,540	43,522	Form 4
2026-03-14	Cocks Christian P	director	Withheld for tax	13,782	266,295	Form 4
2026-03-14	GOETTER GINA M	officer	Withheld for tax	4,201	56,905	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Alan Armstrong	Senate	purchase	2026-07-21	2026-03-27	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-07-06	2026-06-30	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-04-07	2026-03-30	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-02-06	2026-01-29	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	sale	2025-11-21	2025-10-30	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	purchase	2025-11-21	2025-10-30	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	sale	2025-11-21	2025-10-31	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	purchase	2025-08-13	2025-06-17	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2025-06-10	2025-05-28	$1–15K
Julie Johnson	House	sale	2025-05-14	2025-04-01	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-05-12	2025-04-23	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2025-03-06	2025-02-25	$1–15K
Julie Johnson	House	purchase	2025-02-12	2025-01-15	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2025-02-06	2025-01-17	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Fair value — three views i

Seasonality · by month i