Issued 2026-09-16 at $108.44 · now $108.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HALO has typically landed between $91.16 and $130.15 — a range of −15.9% to +20.0% from the issuance price $108.44.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($108.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HALO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $108.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $108.44 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $111.24 (+2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $101.6–$120.88
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $91.16–$130.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2012-07-03 | −55.8% | −55.8% | +0.6% |
| 2015-12-31 | −53.2% | −53.2% | +0.0% |
| 2012-07-05 | −52.1% | −55.3% | +1.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2006-11-21 | +206.8% | +0.0% | +206.8% |
| 2006-11-27 | +190.5% | −0.7% | +190.5% |
| 2006-11-22 | +186.2% | +0.0% | +195.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−0.2%
n=20
Feb
60%
+0.2%
n=20
Mar
50%
+3.5%
n=20
Apr
55%
−0.5%
n=20
May
60%
+1.2%
n=20
Jun
65%
+6.7%
n=20
Jul
75%
+6.0%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.4%
n=20
Sep
35%
+1.5%
n=20
Oct
45%
−3.1%
n=20
Nov
65%
+7.9%
n=20
Dec
55%
+12.2%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 15,492 @ $107.15 | $1.7M | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 772,288 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 4,508 @ $107.55 | $485K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-10 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 14,588 @ $107.01 | $1.6M | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 773,192 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 5,412 @ $107.58 | $582K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 13,304 @ $107.22 | $1.4M | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 774,476 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 6,596 @ $107.82 | $711K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 767,880 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 100 @ $108.67 | $11K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 9,600 @ $107.22 | $1.0M | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 770,980 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 7,200 @ $106.36 | $766K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 780,580 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 3,200 @ $107.77 | $345K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 9,400 @ $104.87 | $986K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 5,703 @ $103.08 | $588K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 782,077 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 4,897 @ $104.11 | $510K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 777,180 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 9,000 @ $102.55 | $923K | −1.1% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 775,280 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $103.48 | $776K | −1.0% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $101.77 | $214K | −0.3% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 784,280 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 900 @ $98.96 | $89K | −0.1% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 786,880 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 500 @ $100.46 | $50K | −0.1% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 786,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Connaughton Bernadette | director | Sale | 1,626 @ $102.80 | $167K | −3.9% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,418 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 1,035 @ $80.19 | $83K | −0.1% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 888 @ $79.28 | $70K | −0.1% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 768,815 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Connaughton Bernadette | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $76.39 | $76K | −2.3% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,669 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Connaughton Bernadette | director | Sale | 625 @ $77.21 | $48K | −1.5% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Krishnan Mahesh | director | Sale | 7,304 @ $75.00 | $548K | −33.6% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,462 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 6,100 @ $69.69 | $425K | −0.8% of holding | +15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $68.74 | $137K | −0.3% of holding | +15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 773,880 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $67.67 | $102K | −0.2% of holding | +15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 775,880 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 400 @ $66.37 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | +15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 777,380 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-02 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 16,600 @ $66.31 | $1.1M | −2.1% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 771,180 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 3,400 @ $66.75 | $227K | −0.4% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 12,989 @ $67.41 | $876K | −1.7% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 773,181 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 5,401 @ $68.35 | $369K | −0.7% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Connaughton Bernadette | director | Sale | 1,625 @ $66.21 | $108K | −3.6% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,669 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 1,610 @ $66.39 | $107K | −0.2% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 786,170 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 3,950 @ $69.79 | $276K | −0.5% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 768,380 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 3,350 @ $68.88 | $231K | −0.4% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 772,330 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $68.10 | $143K | −0.3% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 775,680 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 600 @ $70.81 | $42K | −0.1% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 9,802 @ $71.37 | $700K | −1.2% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 776,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 5,900 @ $72.15 | $426K | −0.8% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 770,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 2,800 @ $73.12 | $205K | −0.4% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 1,398 @ $70.29 | $98K | −0.2% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 786,282 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 100 @ $67.85 | $7K | −0.0% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 787,680 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 9,725 @ $64.63 | $629K | −1.2% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 778,055 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 6,700 @ $66.33 | $444K | −0.9% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 3,575 @ $65.46 | $234K | −0.5% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 774,480 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Connaughton Bernadette | director | Sale | 1,625 @ $63.48 | $103K | −4.1% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,498 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 5,900 @ $63.14 | $373K | −0.8% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 771,880 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 4,100 @ $64.02 | $262K | −0.5% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 15,800 @ $64.06 | $1.0M | −2.0% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 771,980 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 4,200 @ $64.89 | $273K | −0.5% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-01 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 19,000 @ $65.36 | $1.2M | −2.4% of holding | −12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 768,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $65.71 | $66K | −0.1% of holding | −12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Caudill Cortney | officer | Sale | 8,857 @ $67.64 | $599K | −55.7% of holding | −1.8% | +45.2% | 7,055 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Caudill Cortney | officer | Sale | 17,900 @ $67.75 | $1.2M | −52.1% of holding | −3.9% | +45.4% | 16,466 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Caudill Cortney | officer | Sale | 2,100 @ $68.25 | $143K | −12.8% of holding | −3.9% | +45.4% | 14,366 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 7,329 @ $69.94 | $513K | −0.9% of holding | −3.9% | +44.3% | 770,451 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 2,671 @ $70.94 | $189K | −0.3% of holding | −3.9% | +44.3% | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 13,481 @ $68.85 | $928K | −1.7% of holding | −2.3% | +42.7% | 774,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Torley Helen | director | Sale | 6,519 @ $69.33 | $452K | −0.8% of holding | −2.3% | +42.7% | 767,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
178 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 787,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 81,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 787,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 101,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 121,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 787,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Appelhans Dannielle | director | Award / grant | 1,778 | 1,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Appelhans Dannielle | director | Award / grant | 1,161 | 1,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 787,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 141,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 161,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 787,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 787,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 181,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 1,923 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 1,923 | 769,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | RAMSAY DAVID A | director | Award / grant | 39,823 | 39,823 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Snellgrove Darren | officer | Award / grant | 127,432 | 127,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | RAMSAY DAVID A | director | Award / grant | 16,232 | 16,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Snellgrove Darren | officer | Award / grant | 41,554 | 41,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | RAMSAY DAVID A | director | Withheld for tax | 5,408 | 4,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | RAMSAY DAVID A | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | RAMSAY DAVID A | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Krishnan Mahesh | director | Option exercise | 7,304 | 21,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Krishnan Mahesh | director | Option exercise | 7,304 | 1,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Snyder Mark Howard | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,715 | 49,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Snyder Mark Howard | officer | Option exercise | 5,034 | 10,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Snyder Mark Howard | officer | Option exercise | 5,034 | 52,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 1,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 777,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 11,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 787,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 31,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 787,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 777,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 51,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 61,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 787,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 81,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Torley Helen | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 787,780 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.