Issued 2026-09-16 at $106.24 · now $106.24 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HAE has typically landed between $89.44 and $126.20 — a range of −15.8% to +18.8% from the issuance price $106.24.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($106.24) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HAE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $106.24 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $106.24 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $107.16 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $99.83–$114.49
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $89.44–$126.2
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-04-14 | −55.7% | −55.7% | +1.4% |
| 2021-04-15 | −52.8% | −56.3% | +0.0% |
| 2021-04-16 | −51.3% | −55.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-04 | +66.4% | +0.0% | +66.4% |
| 2025-11-05 | +65.5% | +0.0% | +65.5% |
| 2025-10-29 | +64.5% | +0.0% | +64.5% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 | KROLL MARK W | director | Purchase | 1,400 @ $70.56 | $99K | +6.0% of holding | +22.8% | −28.7% | 24,757 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
104 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Bryant Diane M | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 9,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | COYLE MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 17,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | ABERNATHY ROBERT E | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 27,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Bryant Diane M | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 9,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | COYLE MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 17,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Johnson Lloyd Emerson | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 15,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | KROLL MARK W | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 27,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Pomeroy Claire | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 19,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Zane Ellen M | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 21,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | ABERNATHY ROBERT E | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 27,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Madaus Martin D | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 2,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Johnson Lloyd Emerson | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 15,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | KROLL MARK W | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 27,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Madaus Martin D | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 2,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Pomeroy Claire | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 19,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Zane Ellen M | director | Award / grant | 2,538 | 21,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Miller Laurie A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 313 | 40,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Maunsell Farris Maryanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 259 | 6,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Simon, Christopher | director | Withheld for tax | 9,681 | 366,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Basil Michelle L | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,913 | 40,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | DArecca James | director | Withheld for tax | 2,505 | 25,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Miller Laurie A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 948 | 27,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Galvin Roy | officer | Withheld for tax | 879 | 12,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Chan Frank | officer | Withheld for tax | 546 | 5,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Maunsell Farris Maryanne | officer | Withheld for tax | 197 | 4,281 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Simon, Christopher | director | Award / grant | 78,344 | 444,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Galvin Roy | officer | Award / grant | 27,535 | 39,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Maunsell Farris Maryanne | officer | Award / grant | 2,220 | 6,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Miller Laurie A. | officer | Award / grant | 13,323 | 41,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Galvin Roy | officer | Award / grant | 27,535 | 39,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Maunsell Farris Maryanne | officer | Award / grant | 2,220 | 6,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Miller Laurie A. | officer | Award / grant | 13,323 | 41,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | DArecca James | director | Award / grant | 29,312 | 54,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | DArecca James | director | Award / grant | 29,312 | 54,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Basil Michelle L | officer | Award / grant | 28,424 | 68,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Chan Frank | officer | Award / grant | 27,535 | 32,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Basil Michelle L | officer | Award / grant | 28,424 | 68,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Simon, Christopher | director | Award / grant | 78,344 | 444,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Chan Frank | officer | Award / grant | 27,535 | 32,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | DArecca James | director | Withheld for tax | 655 | 27,637 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.