Issued 2026-09-16 at $158.65 · now $158.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, H has typically landed between $137.04 and $185.14 — a range of −13.6% to +16.7% from the issuance price $158.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,207 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-11-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($158.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where H has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $158.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $158.65 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $160.36 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $150.81–$169.9
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $137.04–$185.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,207 windows spanning 2009-11-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −58.7% | −58.7% | +4.7% |
| 2020-02-19 | −55.7% | −59.3% | +3.3% |
| 2020-02-20 | −49.6% | −60.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +56.1% | +0.0% | +56.1% |
| 2020-10-28 | +39.1% | +0.0% | +40.1% |
| 2020-03-19 | +37.5% | +0.0% | +43.4% |
4,207 overlapping windows · 2009-11-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
41%
+0.2%
n=17
Feb
65%
+5.0%
n=17
Mar
41%
−2.2%
n=17
Apr
59%
+2.2%
n=17
May
35%
−0.3%
n=17
Jun
41%
−1.1%
n=17
Jul
53%
+1.3%
n=17
Aug
47%
−0.4%
n=17
Sep
35%
−2.2%
n=17
Oct
63%
+2.8%
n=16
Nov
69%
+6.1%
n=16
Dec
71%
+3.8%
n=17
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Lalvani Amar | officer | Sale | 1,364 @ $163.06 | $222K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | KRONICK SUSAN D | director | Sale | 1,700 @ $179.88 | $306K | −5.4% of holding | −10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,525 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Bottarini Joan | director | Sale | 1,825 @ $170.37 | $311K | −7.7% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUEL | director | Sale | 33,352 @ $197.82 | $6.6M | −8.5% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 360,199 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUEL | director | Sale | 30,479 @ $196.80 | $6.0M | −7.2% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 393,551 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUEL | director | Sale | 16,850 @ $195.96 | $3.3M | −3.8% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 424,030 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUEL | director | Sale | 4,110 @ $198.65 | $816K | −1.1% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 356,089 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUEL | director | Sale | 18,241 @ $202.45 | $3.7M | −3.8% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 457,848 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUEL | director | Sale | 11,801 @ $204.50 | $2.4M | −2.6% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 441,288 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUEL | director | Sale | 4,759 @ $203.31 | $968K | −1.0% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 453,089 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUEL | director | Sale | 408 @ $205.23 | $84K | −0.1% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 440,880 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | TSPV P.G. Trust | other | Sale | 31,786 @ $186.93 | $5.9M | −13.8% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 198,183 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | DJPS P.G. Trust | other | Sale | 29,800 @ $186.93 | $5.6M | −14.3% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 178,169 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | ACPS P.G. Trust | other | Sale | 26,821 @ $186.93 | $5.0M | −14.5% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 158,148 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | JSPV P.G. Trust | other | Sale | 18,111 @ $186.93 | $3.4M | −8.8% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,858 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | ECI Trust - Julia | other | Sale | 12,682 @ $186.93 | $2.4M | −99.3% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 85 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Udell David | officer | Sale | 2,087 @ $188.00 | $392K | −11.1% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,638 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | TSPV P.G. Trust | other | Sale | 214 @ $188.83 | $40K | −0.1% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,969 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | DJPS P.G. Trust | other | Sale | 200 @ $188.83 | $38K | −0.1% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,969 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | ACPS P.G. Trust | other | Sale | 179 @ $188.83 | $34K | −0.1% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,969 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | JSPV P.G. Trust | other | Sale | 122 @ $188.83 | $23K | −0.1% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | ECI Trust - Julia | other | Sale | 85 @ $188.83 | $16K | −100.0% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | VONDRASEK MARK R | director | Sale | 6,100 @ $185.00 | $1.1M | −35.5% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,088 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Sears Peter | officer | Sale | 4,294 @ $185.42 | $796K | −35.9% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,674 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Sears Peter | officer | Sale | 2,991 @ $185.46 | $555K | −18.0% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,600 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | VONDRASEK MARK R | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $186.00 | $391K | −18.9% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,988 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Sears Peter | officer | Sale | 1,632 @ $186.20 | $304K | −12.0% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,968 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Sears Peter | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $186.25 | $242K | −16.9% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,374 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | MCMILLAN CARY D | director | Sale | 1,119 @ $174.96 | $196K | −100.0% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | KRONICK SUSAN D | director | Sale | 1,045 @ $174.33 | $182K | −3.2% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,299 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | KRONICK SUSAN D | director | Sale | 74 @ $177.10 | $13K | −0.2% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,225 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Udell David | officer | Sale | 4,658 @ $172.00 | $801K | −25.9% of holding | +19.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,338 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Udell David | officer | Sale | 4,024 @ $172.00 | $692K | −18.3% of holding | +19.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,996 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | KRONICK SUSAN D | director | Sale | 1,700 @ $169.96 | $289K | −5.2% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,225 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Bottarini Joan | director | Sale | 1,825 @ $168.24 | $307K | −8.8% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,885 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | KLP 2006-N3 Family Trust | other | Sale | 32,862 @ $172.54 | $5.7M | −3.4% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 926,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | JV 2010 N-1 Trust | other | Sale | 7,586 @ $172.54 | $1.3M | −39.9% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,416 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | AS 2010 N-1 Trust | other | Sale | 7,586 @ $172.54 | $1.3M | −39.9% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,415 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | TV 2010 N-1 Trust | other | Sale | 7,586 @ $172.54 | $1.3M | −39.9% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,415 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | DS 2010 N-1 Trust | other | Sale | 7,586 @ $172.54 | $1.3M | −39.9% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,415 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | KLP 2006-N3 Family Trust | other | Sale | 6,138 @ $173.06 | $1.1M | −0.7% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 920,068 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | JV 2010 N-1 Trust | other | Sale | 1,414 @ $173.06 | $245K | −12.4% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,002 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | DS 2010 N-1 Trust | other | Sale | 1,414 @ $173.06 | $245K | −12.4% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | AS 2010 N-1 Trust | other | Sale | 1,414 @ $173.06 | $245K | −12.4% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | TV 2010 N-1 Trust | other | Sale | 1,414 @ $173.06 | $245K | −12.4% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | JNP 2010-PG Trust | other | Sale | 213,434 @ $167.75 | $35.8M | −100.0% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | JNP Parachute Mirror Trust L | other | Sale | 42,689 @ $167.75 | $7.2M | −100.0% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | JNP Parachute Mirror Trust K | other | Sale | 35,573 @ $167.75 | $6.0M | −100.0% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Settlement 1740 Trust #33 | other | Sale | 8,970 @ $163.50 | $1.5M | −100.0% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | VONDRASEK MARK R | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $147.18 | $957K | −35.7% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,702 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-23 | Wolf Kinsey | officer | Sale | 400 @ $147.28 | $59K | −42.4% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 545 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Wolf Kinsey | officer | Sale | 400 @ $144.34 | $58K | −29.8% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 945 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | KRONICK SUSAN D | director | Sale | 1,700 @ $166.07 | $282K | −4.9% of holding | −6.4% | −12.8% | 32,925 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Lalvani Amar | officer | Sale | 739 @ $163.63 | $121K | −80.0% of holding | −6.4% | −12.8% | 185 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Bottarini Joan | director | Sale | 1,825 @ $166.61 | $304K | −12.4% of holding | −10.3% | −16.4% | 12,881 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | KLP 2006-N3 Family Trust | other | Sale | 12,000 @ $168.01 | $2.0M | −1.2% of holding | +0.8% | +4.1% | 959,068 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-23 | Aguila Javier | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $165.88 | $995K | −69.1% of holding | −2.9% | +13.1% | 2,684 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Aguila Javier | officer | Sale | 3,548 @ $165.84 | $588K | −56.9% of holding | −2.9% | +13.1% | 2,684 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
242 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Lalvani Amar | officer | Disposition | 3,530 | 1,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Lalvani Amar | officer | Option exercise | 4,709 | 4,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Lalvani Amar | officer | Option exercise | 4,709 | 14,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | O'NEILL HEIDI | director | Award / grant | 125 | 3,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Pritzker Jason | director | Award / grant | 125 | 33,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Travis Tracey Thomas | director | Award / grant | 125 | 2,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Udell David | officer | Disposition | 813 | 18,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Udell David | officer | Option exercise | 2,900 | 19,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Udell David | officer | Option exercise | 2,900 | 2,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Sears Peter | officer | Disposition | 3,535 | 16,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Sears Peter | officer | Option exercise | 8,158 | 20,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Sears Peter | officer | Option exercise | 8,158 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUEL | director | Withheld for tax | 28,514 | 476,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | VONDRASEK MARK R | director | Withheld for tax | 4,414 | 17,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bottarini Joan | director | Withheld for tax | 3,928 | 23,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Egan Margaret C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,200 | 34,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Sears Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,953 | 11,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Pritzker Jason | director | Award / grant | 1,119 | 32,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | HOPLAMAZIAN MARK SAMUEL | director | Award / grant | 63,800 | 504,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ballew Paul | director | Award / grant | 1,119 | 11,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | O'NEILL HEIDI | director | Award / grant | 559 | 559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | MCMILLAN CARY D | director | Award / grant | 1,119 | 1,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | VONDRASEK MARK R | director | Award / grant | 9,900 | 21,602 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bottarini Joan | director | Award / grant | 8,800 | 27,685 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Egan Margaret C. | officer | Award / grant | 4,950 | 36,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Sanders Dion C. | director | Award / grant | 1,119 | 6,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Travis Tracey Thomas | director | Award / grant | 1,119 | 2,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bogliolo Alessandro | director | Award / grant | 1,119 | 2,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Udell David | officer | Award / grant | 3,300 | 16,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Pritzker Thomas | director | Award / grant | 295 | 749,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | TUTTLE RICHARD C | director | Award / grant | 1,119 | 40,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Sears Peter | officer | Award / grant | 4,400 | 13,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Marostica Gianni | director | Award / grant | 174 | 701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | KRONICK SUSAN D | director | Award / grant | 1,119 | 32,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | O'NEILL HEIDI | director | Award / grant | 560 | 2,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Udell David | officer | Disposition | 1,776 | 22,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Udell David | officer | Option exercise | 5,800 | 23,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Udell David | officer | Option exercise | 5,800 | 5,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | JNP Parachute Mirror Trust K | other | Conversion | 35,573 | 142,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | JNP 2010-PG Trust | other | Conversion | 213,434 | 853,736 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-14 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Diana Harshbarger | House | purchase | 2023-03-02 | 2023-02-16 | $1–15K |
| Diana Harshbarger | House | purchase | 2023-03-02 | 2023-02-16 | $1–15K |
| Diana Harshbarger | House | purchase | 2023-03-02 | 2023-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Diana Harshbarger | House | purchase | 2023-03-02 | 2023-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Diana Harshbarger | House | purchase | 2023-03-02 | 2023-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2021-08-13 | 2021-07-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2020-06-17 | 2020-05-13 | $1–15K |
| Donna Shalala | House | sale | 2020-04-27 | 2019-06-24 | $1–15K |
| Donna Shalala | House | purchase | 2020-04-27 | 2019-04-16 | $1–15K |
| Donna Shalala | House | purchase | 2020-04-27 | 2019-04-03 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.