Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.15 · now $46.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GXO has typically landed between $37.38 and $54.79 — a range of −19.0% to +18.7% from the issuance price $46.15.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,273 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GXO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $46.15 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $45.88 (-0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $42.21–$49.55
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.38–$54.79
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-11-25 | −30.5% | −31.9% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-21 | −30.1% | −30.1% | +2.6% |
| 2024-11-22 | −30.1% | −30.7% | +1.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-07-30 | +46.4% | +0.0% | +50.1% |
| 2021-07-27 | +45.1% | −3.3% | +45.1% |
| 2021-07-29 | +42.8% | −3.3% | +45.2% |
1,273 overlapping windows · 2021-07-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | Cooper Todd C | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $50.59 | $304K | +148.5% of holding | +3.7% | −14.1% | 10,040 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
239 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Carvalho Christina | officer | Award / grant | 21,309 | 21,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Kelleher Patrick Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,604 | 5,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kelleher Patrick Michael | officer | Option exercise | 9,935 | 19,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kelleher Patrick Michael | officer | Option exercise | 9,935 | 9,935 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Bracken Laura L. | officer | Award / grant | 2,991 | 2,991 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bracken Laura L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 746 | 2,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bracken Laura L. | officer | Option exercise | 3,063 | 3,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bracken Laura L. | officer | Option exercise | 3,063 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Byrne Patrick J | director | Award / grant | 4,847 | 4,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | KNEELAND MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Colucci Marlene M | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Cooper Todd C | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Pilz Torsten | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Nemeth Julio N | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Wilkin Laura A. | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Wismans Kyle | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Fassler Matthew J. | director | Award / grant | 3,837 | 3,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Pilz Torsten | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Nemeth Julio N | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 5,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Nemeth Julio N | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Colucci Marlene M | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 27,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Colucci Marlene M | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Wilkin Laura A. | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 5,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Wilkin Laura A. | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Byrne Patrick J | director | Option exercise | 339 | 3,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Wismans Kyle | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 10,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Wismans Kyle | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Cooper Todd C | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 15,052 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Cooper Todd C | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Fassler Matthew J. | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 10,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Fassler Matthew J. | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Pilz Torsten | director | Option exercise | 5,012 | 5,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | KNEELAND MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 2,915 | 6,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | KNEELAND MICHAEL | director | Option exercise | 2,915 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Byrne Patrick J | director | Option exercise | 2,926 | 2,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Byrne Patrick J | director | Option exercise | 2,926 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Byrne Patrick J | director | Option exercise | 339 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Refsgaard Corinna | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,222 | 7,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Refsgaard Corinna | officer | Option exercise | 2,676 | 2,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Refsgaard Corinna | officer | Option exercise | 2,676 | 9,659 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.