Issued 2026-09-16 at $1258.26 · now $1258.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GWW has typically landed between $1150.89 and $1432.33 — a range of −8.5% to +13.8% from the issuance price $1258.26.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1258.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GWW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1,258 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1,258 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,284 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1,219–$1,349
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1,151–$1,432
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −31.1% | −31.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −30.9% | −30.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −24.8% | −24.8% | +1.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +31.8% | +0.0% | +37.3% |
| 2022-07-18 | +29.3% | +0.0% | +29.3% |
| 2022-07-15 | +27.8% | −0.9% | +27.8% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$489.01
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$1,140
- Analyst target · range $1,125–$1,460$1,300
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$1,258
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Robbins Paige K | director | Sale | 382 @ $1229.68 | $470K | −10.4% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,307 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Robbins Paige K | director | Sale | 356 @ $1233.89 | $439K | −13.1% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Robbins Paige K | director | Sale | 351 @ $1232.98 | $433K | −11.5% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,709 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | LeRoy Jonny M | officer | Sale | 350 @ $1229.45 | $430K | −14.5% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,058 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Robbins Paige K | director | Sale | 247 @ $1231.78 | $304K | −7.5% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,060 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Thomson Laurie R | officer | Sale | 240 @ $1230.82 | $295K | −33.7% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 472 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | LeRoy Jonny M | officer | Sale | 233 @ $1232.70 | $287K | −12.5% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,634 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Robbins Paige K | director | Sale | 121 @ $1234.89 | $149K | −5.1% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,232 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | LeRoy Jonny M | officer | Sale | 111 @ $1231.65 | $137K | −5.6% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | LeRoy Jonny M | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1233.43 | $99K | −4.9% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,554 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | LeRoy Jonny M | officer | Sale | 80 @ $1230.16 | $98K | −3.9% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,978 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Thomson Laurie R | officer | Sale | 23 @ $1236.43 | $28K | −5.5% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 399 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Thomson Laurie R | officer | Sale | 20 @ $1234.70 | $25K | −4.5% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 422 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Thomson Laurie R | officer | Sale | 20 @ $1233.76 | $25K | −4.3% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 442 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Thomson Laurie R | officer | Sale | 10 @ $1231.52 | $12K | −2.1% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 462 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 280 @ $1117.83 | $313K | −2.5% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,781 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 280 @ $1112.41 | $311K | −2.4% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,549 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 240 @ $1115.43 | $268K | −2.1% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,189 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 160 @ $1118.61 | $179K | −1.5% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,621 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 128 @ $1116.81 | $143K | −1.1% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,061 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 120 @ $1113.93 | $134K | −1.0% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,429 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 80 @ $1097.27 | $88K | −0.7% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,949 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 40 @ $1122.39 | $45K | −0.4% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,541 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 40 @ $1119.73 | $45K | −0.4% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,581 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 40 @ $1110.08 | $44K | −0.3% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,829 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 40 @ $1107.77 | $44K | −0.3% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,869 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 40 @ $1102.26 | $44K | −0.3% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,909 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-24 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 354 @ $1066.69 | $378K | −3.1% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,241 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 349 @ $1064.06 | $371K | −2.9% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 331 @ $1068.79 | $354K | −3.0% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 240 @ $1070.18 | $257K | −2.2% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,475 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 200 @ $1060.38 | $212K | −1.6% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,094 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 195 @ $1067.95 | $208K | −1.7% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,046 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 160 @ $1048.02 | $168K | −1.3% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,374 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 150 @ $1064.57 | $160K | −1.3% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 120 @ $1072.56 | $129K | −1.2% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,235 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 120 @ $1071.32 | $129K | −1.1% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,355 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 80 @ $1050.78 | $84K | −0.6% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,294 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Merriwether Deidra C | director | Sale | 40 @ $1044.84 | $42K | −0.3% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,534 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Berardinelli Krantz Nancy L | officer | Sale | 195 @ $1023.93 | $200K | −5.8% of holding | +2.4% | +23.2% | 3,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 4,183 @ $974.47 | $4.1M | −3.9% of holding | +2.1% | +28.7% | 104,378 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $973.65 | $1.8M | −1.7% of holding | +2.1% | +28.7% | 108,561 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 1,382 @ $970.41 | $1.3M | −1.2% of holding | +2.1% | +28.7% | 112,751 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 1,267 @ $972.77 | $1.2M | −1.1% of holding | +2.1% | +28.7% | 110,461 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 1,023 @ $971.77 | $994K | −0.9% of holding | +2.1% | +28.7% | 111,728 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 824 @ $968.59 | $798K | −0.7% of holding | +2.1% | +28.7% | 114,824 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 691 @ $969.77 | $670K | −0.6% of holding | +2.1% | +28.7% | 114,133 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 493 @ $975.34 | $481K | −0.5% of holding | +2.1% | +28.7% | 103,885 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 240 @ $967.46 | $232K | −0.2% of holding | +2.1% | +28.7% | 115,648 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 111 @ $964.06 | $107K | −0.1% of holding | +2.1% | +28.7% | 115,889 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 48 @ $962.93 | $46K | −0.0% of holding | +2.1% | +28.7% | 116,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 1 @ $965.19 | $965 | −0.0% of holding | +2.1% | +28.7% | 115,888 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 2,971 @ $974.45 | $2.9M | −2.6% of holding | +4.8% | +26.5% | 110,626 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 2,552 @ $973.68 | $2.5M | −2.2% of holding | +4.8% | +26.5% | 113,597 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 1,907 @ $968.85 | $1.8M | −1.6% of holding | +4.8% | +26.5% | 120,478 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 1,844 @ $975.42 | $1.8M | −1.7% of holding | +4.8% | +26.5% | 108,782 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $969.41 | $1.4M | −1.2% of holding | +4.8% | +26.5% | 119,078 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 1,159 @ $972.62 | $1.1M | −1.0% of holding | +4.8% | +26.5% | 116,149 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 1,015 @ $971.41 | $986K | −0.9% of holding | +4.8% | +26.5% | 117,308 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Macpherson Donald G | director | Sale | 755 @ $970.46 | $733K | −0.6% of holding | +4.8% | +26.5% | 118,323 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
208 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | NOVICH NEIL S | director | Award / grant | 64 | 64 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT | director | Award / grant | 20 | 10,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Adkins Rodney C | director | Award / grant | 12 | 6,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Watson Lucas E | director | Award / grant | 12 | 6,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Perez Beatriz R | director | Award / grant | 10 | 5,365 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | White Steven Andrew | director | Award / grant | 5 | 5 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Williams Susan Slavik | director | Award / grant | 4 | 2,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jaspon Katherine D. | director | Award / grant | 4 | 4 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Davis George S | director | Award / grant | 2 | 1,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | KLEIN CHRISTOPHER J | director | Award / grant | 2 | 618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Miller Cindy J | director | Award / grant | 1 | 537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jaspon Katherine D. | director | Gift | 4 | 1,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jaspon Katherine D. | director | Gift | 4 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | NOVICH NEIL S | director | Gift | 64 | 33,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | NOVICH NEIL S | director | Gift | 64 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | White Steven Andrew | director | Gift | 5 | 2,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | White Steven Andrew | director | Gift | 5 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | NOVICH NEIL S | director | Gift | 33,644 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | NOVICH NEIL S | director | Gift | 33,644 | 33,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | NOVICH NEIL S | director | Award / grant | 67 | 33,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SANTI ERNEST SCOTT | director | Award / grant | 21 | 10,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Adkins Rodney C | director | Award / grant | 12 | 6,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Watson Lucas E | director | Award / grant | 12 | 6,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Perez Beatriz R | director | Award / grant | 11 | 5,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | White Steven Andrew | director | Award / grant | 6 | 6 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Williams Susan Slavik | director | Award / grant | 5 | 2,469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Jaspon Katherine D. | director | Award / grant | 3 | 3 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Davis George S | director | Award / grant | 3 | 1,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | KLEIN CHRISTOPHER J | director | Award / grant | 1 | 616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Miller Cindy J | director | Award / grant | 1 | 536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Jaspon Katherine D. | director | Gift | 3 | 1,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | White Steven Andrew | director | Gift | 6 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | White Steven Andrew | director | Gift | 6 | 2,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Jaspon Katherine D. | director | Gift | 3 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | White Steven Andrew | director | Gift | 288 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Jaspon Katherine D. | director | Gift | 288 | 1,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Jaspon Katherine D. | director | Gift | 288 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | White Steven Andrew | director | Gift | 288 | 2,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tinto Melanie J | officer | Withheld for tax | 413 | 3,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Tinto Melanie J | officer | Withheld for tax | 109 | 3,536 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-09 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-03-27 | 2025-02-25 | $1–15K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | sale | 2025-02-13 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2025-01-14 | 2024-12-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-15 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.