GVAGranite Construction IncorporatedIndustrials · Engineering & Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $115.80 · now $115.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GVA has typically landed between $102.79 and $134.06 — a range of −11.2% to +15.8% from the issuance price $115.80.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($115.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GVA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $115.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$102.79worst · -11.2%$134.06best · +15.8%
  • now $115.8 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $118.02 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $110.44–$125.59
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $102.79–$134.06
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-14−64.3%−64.3%+0.0%
2020-02-13−60.5%−60.5%+0.0%
2020-02-18−60.2%−64.1%+0.0%
3 best
2008-10-27+75.3%+0.0%+75.3%
2008-10-28+72.4%+0.0%+72.4%
2008-10-29+64.6%+0.0%+64.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+0.2%
n=20
Feb
55%
−0.9%
n=20
Mar
55%
+1.3%
n=20
Apr
45%
+0.2%
n=20
May
55%
+0.9%
n=20
Jun
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Jul
50%
−3.0%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.1%
n=20
Sep
45%
−1.3%
n=20
Oct
60%
+2.9%
n=20
Nov
80%
+8.7%
n=20
Dec
55%
+1.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$160$982026-08-06: 1 insider purchase, $50K — HERNANDEZ CARLOS M2026-06-15: 2 insider purchases, $54K — Romer John Timothy …2026-06-12: 1 insider purchase, $53K — Romer John Timothy2026-06-08: 2 insider sales, $2.0M — Tatusko Michael G, Williams Bradley Jay2026-03-30: 4 insider sales, $1.4M — Larkin Kyle T …2026-03-27: 6 insider sales, $4.3M — Larkin Kyle T, Dowd Brian R, WOOLSEY STACI M …2026-03-19: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — Larkin Kyle T, WOOLSEY STACI M2025-11-24: 1 insider sale, $801K — Mastin Celeste Beeks2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $155K — WOOLSEY STACI M2025-08-28: 2 insider sales, $388K — Dowd Brian R, CALDERA LOUIS E2025-08-21: 1 insider sale, $220K — Tatusko Michael G2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $608K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $956K2026-03: 12 open-market sales, $6.7M2026-06: 3 open-market purchases, $107K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $2.0M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $50K↑ buys↓ salesdirector HERNANDEZ CARLOS M — Purchase on 2026-08-06, filed same daydirector Romer John Timothy — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed same daydirector Romer John Timothy — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed same daydirector Romer John Timothy — Purchase on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Tatusko Michael G — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed same dayofficer Williams Bradley Jay — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed same daydirector Larkin Kyle T — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed same daydirector Larkin Kyle T — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed same daydirector Larkin Kyle T — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed same daydirector Larkin Kyle T — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed same daydirector Larkin Kyle T — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Larkin Kyle T — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Dowd Brian R — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer WOOLSEY STACI M — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Dowd Brian R — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Larkin Kyle T — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Larkin Kyle T — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed same dayofficer WOOLSEY STACI M — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed same daydirector Mastin Celeste Beeks — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed same dayofficer WOOLSEY STACI M — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed same dayofficer Dowd Brian R — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed same daydirector CALDERA LOUIS E — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed same dayofficer Tatusko Michael G — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06HERNANDEZ CARLOS MdirectorPurchase400 @ $123.99$50K+8.6% of holding−2.1%not yet — horizon still open5,033Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15Romer John TimothydirectorPurchase273 @ $143.40$39K+11.3% of holding−10.8%not yet — horizon still open2,699Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15Romer John TimothydirectorPurchase102 @ $144.32$15K+3.8% of holding−10.8%not yet — horizon still open2,801Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-12Romer John TimothydirectorPurchase375 @ $141.79$53K+18.3% of holding−13.4%not yet — horizon still open2,426Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-08Tatusko Michael GofficerSale7,500 @ $141.00$1.1M−20.1% of holding−12.1%not yet — horizon still open29,787Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-08Williams Bradley JayofficerSale6,734 @ $141.00$949K−48.9% of holding−12.1%not yet — horizon still open7,041Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-30Larkin Kyle TdirectorSale8,290 @ $116.46$965K−7.3% of holding−7.3%not yet — horizon still open104,745Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-30Larkin Kyle TdirectorSale1,846 @ $115.72$214K−1.6% of holding−7.3%not yet — horizon still open113,035Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-30Larkin Kyle TdirectorSale1,588 @ $117.09$186K−1.5% of holding−7.3%not yet — horizon still open103,157Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-30Larkin Kyle TdirectorSale300 @ $118.73$36K−0.3% of holding−7.3%not yet — horizon still open102,857Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-27Larkin Kyle TdirectorSale13,066 @ $117.80$1.5M−9.2% of holding−6.5%not yet — horizon still open128,466Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-27Larkin Kyle TdirectorSale12,285 @ $118.34$1.5M−9.6% of holding−6.5%not yet — horizon still open116,181Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-27Dowd Brian RofficerSale4,050 @ $120.00$486K−21.5% of holding−6.5%not yet — horizon still open14,744Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-27WOOLSEY STACI MofficerSale3,501 @ $118.58$415K−24.1% of holding−6.5%not yet — horizon still open11,017Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-27Dowd Brian RofficerSale2,025 @ $118.58$240K−9.7% of holding−6.5%not yet — horizon still open18,794Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-27Larkin Kyle TdirectorSale1,300 @ $119.19$155K−1.1% of holding−6.5%not yet — horizon still open114,881Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-19Larkin Kyle TdirectorSale7,314 @ $119.84$877K−3.9% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open181,594Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-19WOOLSEY STACI MofficerSale1,523 @ $119.84$183K−7.4% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open18,954Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-24Mastin Celeste BeeksdirectorSale7,614 @ $105.23$801K−42.7% of holding+9.5%+17.9%10,206Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-12WOOLSEY STACI MofficerSale1,500 @ $103.00$155K−11.9% of holding+12.6%+26.7%11,120Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-28Dowd Brian RofficerSale2,025 @ $110.16$223K−12.1% of holding−3.3%+15.7%14,685Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-28CALDERA LOUIS EdirectorSale1,500 @ $110.16$165K−12.4% of holding−3.3%+15.7%10,601Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-21Tatusko Michael GofficerSale2,000 @ $110.00$220K−6.4% of holding−4.2%+15.3%29,241Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-28Dowd Brian RofficerSale2,025 @ $91.76$186K−9.7% of holding−2.0%+1.9%18,819Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13Williams Bradley JayofficerSale2,811 @ $85.00$239K−28.5% of holding+1.6%+3.0%7,041Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13Radich James AofficerSale2,500 @ $85.00$213K−6.1% of holding+1.6%+3.0%38,386Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-12Krusi AlandirectorPurchase1,250 @ $82.63$103K+6.4% of holding+4.1%+2.0%20,700Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-29Larkin Kyle TdirectorSale12,060 @ $80.50$971K−9.1% of holding+4.7%+4.3%120,306Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-29Larkin Kyle TdirectorSale10,939 @ $81.20$888K−9.1% of holding+4.7%+4.3%109,367Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-28Larkin Kyle TdirectorSale3,617 @ $80.38$291K−2.7% of holding+5.6%+4.6%132,366Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-25Larkin Kyle TdirectorSale401 @ $80.05$32K−0.3% of holding+7.1%+7.5%135,983Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-24Larkin Kyle TdirectorSale2,790 @ $80.02$223K−2.0% of holding+4.1%+6.1%136,384Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-12CAMPBELL MOLLYdirectorSale1,801 @ $72.54$131K−13.8% of holding+11.7%+31.9%11,258Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-12CAMPBELL MOLLYdirectorSale269 @ $72.78$20K−2.4% of holding+11.7%+31.9%10,989Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-28Dowd Brian RofficerSale2,025 @ $81.55$165K−12.7% of holding−3.0%+21.7%13,880Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-20Radich James AofficerSale2,500 @ $87.14$218K−8.1% of holding−2.6%+25.3%28,256Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-12Mastin Celeste BeeksdirectorSale5,435 @ $97.44$530K−24.7% of holding−2.4%−6.3%16,579Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

104 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06NASH GEORGEdirectorAward / grant993993Form 4
2026-06-08CAMPBELL MOLLYdirectorAward / grant1,03613,375Form 4
2026-06-08HERNANDEZ CARLOS MdirectorAward / grant1,0364,632Form 4
2026-06-08Mastin Celeste BeeksdirectorAward / grant1,03611,335Form 4
2026-06-08Krusi AlandirectorAward / grant1,03623,064Form 4
2026-06-08McNally Michael FdirectorAward / grant1,50135,662Form 4
2026-06-08Mullen Laura MdirectorAward / grant1,03614,529Form 4
2026-06-08Romer John TimothydirectorAward / grant1,0362,051Form 4
2026-06-08CALDERA LOUIS EdirectorAward / grant1,03613,254Form 4
2026-03-23Larkin Kyle TdirectorWithheld for tax27,905153,689Form 4
2026-03-23Larkin Kyle TdirectorWithheld for tax12,157141,532Form 4
2026-03-23Dowd Brian RofficerWithheld for tax3,98623,188Form 4
2026-03-23Tatusko Michael GofficerWithheld for tax3,46938,796Form 4
2026-03-23Williams Bradley JayofficerWithheld for tax3,14815,680Form 4
2026-03-23WOOLSEY STACI MofficerWithheld for tax3,09015,864Form 4
2026-03-23Dowd Brian RofficerWithheld for tax1,73721,451Form 4
2026-03-23Tatusko Michael GofficerWithheld for tax1,51237,284Form 4
2026-03-23Williams Bradley JayofficerWithheld for tax1,37214,308Form 4
2026-03-23WOOLSEY STACI MofficerWithheld for tax1,34614,518Form 4
2026-03-23Dowd Brian RofficerWithheld for tax63220,819Form 4
2026-03-23Williams Bradley JayofficerWithheld for tax53313,775Form 4
2026-03-14Larkin Kyle TdirectorWithheld for tax2,982193,506Form 4
2026-03-14Larkin Kyle TdirectorWithheld for tax2,525190,981Form 4
2026-03-14Larkin Kyle TdirectorWithheld for tax2,073188,908Form 4
2026-03-14WOOLSEY STACI MofficerWithheld for tax37520,477Form 4
2026-03-14Tatusko Michael GofficerWithheld for tax37142,774Form 4
2026-03-14WOOLSEY STACI MofficerWithheld for tax33021,168Form 4
2026-03-14WOOLSEY STACI MofficerWithheld for tax31620,852Form 4
2026-03-14Tatusko Michael GofficerWithheld for tax27542,499Form 4
2026-03-14Tatusko Michael GofficerWithheld for tax23442,265Form 4
2026-03-14Estes Bradly JofficerWithheld for tax20112,397Form 4
2026-03-13Estes Bradly JofficerAward / grant1,24210,939Form 4
2026-03-13Dowd Brian RofficerAward / grant7,83427,174Form 4
2026-03-13Dowd Brian RofficerAward / grant3,41319,340Form 4
2026-03-13Dowd Brian RofficerAward / grant1,24215,927Form 4
2026-03-13Williams Bradley JayofficerAward / grant7,34518,828Form 4
2026-03-13Williams Bradley JayofficerAward / grant3,20011,483Form 4
2026-03-13Williams Bradley JayofficerAward / grant1,2428,283Form 4
2026-03-13Larkin Kyle TdirectorAward / grant54,844196,488Form 4
2026-03-13WOOLSEY STACI MofficerAward / grant1,65612,781Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.