Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.09 · now $4.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GTM has typically landed between $2.90 and $4.96 — a range of −29.1% to +21.3% from the issuance price $4.09.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,558 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-06-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GTM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.09 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.99 (-2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.59–$4.38
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.9–$4.96
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-07 | −57.0% | −57.0% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-08 | −56.6% | −56.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-11 | −55.3% | −55.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-10 | +44.9% | −1.4% | +44.9% |
| 2022-07-18 | +42.4% | −2.2% | +42.4% |
| 2026-07-09 | +42.2% | −2.0% | +42.2% |
1,558 overlapping windows · 2020-06-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Roth James M | officer | Sale | 94 @ $4.17 | $392 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 205,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Sale | 34 @ $4.17 | $142 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 107,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Sale | 16,400 @ $4.16 | $68K | −13.3% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,934 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $4.00 | $20K | −1.6% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 299,947 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Sale | 997 @ $3.56 | $4K | −0.8% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 123,334 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | Roth James M | officer | Sale | 20,774 @ $2.98 | $62K | −9.2% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 205,204 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Sale | 2,461 @ $2.98 | $7K | −2.0% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,341 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Roth James M | officer | Sale | 200 @ $3.55 | $710 | −0.1% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,995 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-02 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Sale | 34 @ $3.55 | $121 | −0.0% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,147 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | Maida Domenic | director | Purchase | 27,500 @ $3.60 | $99K | +70.8% of holding | −23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,342 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Sale | 1,057 @ $6.58 | $7K | −1.3% of holding | −57.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Roth James M | officer | Sale | 35,723 @ $5.87 | $210K | −20.4% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,795 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Sale | 6,959 @ $5.87 | $41K | −8.3% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,872 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Sale | 2,045 @ $6.01 | $12K | −3.5% of holding | −5.8% | −43.6% | 55,989 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Roth James M | officer | Sale | 200 @ $6.10 | $1K | −0.2% of holding | −2.7% | −46.4% | 104,072 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Roth James M | officer | Sale | 45,065 @ $6.66 | $300K | −30.3% of holding | −6.0% | −54.8% | 103,872 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
284 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Withheld for tax | 268 | 300,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Roth James M | officer | Withheld for tax | 156 | 205,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Withheld for tax | 70 | 107,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 214 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 328 | 328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | HSKB Funds II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 4,575 | 209,574 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Roth James M | officer | Option exercise | 345 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Option exercise | 207 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Roth James M | officer | Option exercise | 345 | 205,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Option exercise | 207 | 107,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Roth James M | officer | Option exercise | 345 | 205,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Option exercise | 207 | 107,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Roth James M | officer | Option exercise | 345 | 205,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 214 | 300,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 328 | 300,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Roth James M | officer | Option exercise | 345 | 205,549 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 214 | 300,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 328 | 300,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Option exercise | 207 | 107,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 214 | 300,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 328 | 300,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 214 | 300,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 328 | 300,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Option exercise | 207 | 107,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Withheld for tax | 61,073 | 304,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,997 | 124,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Withheld for tax | 758 | 366,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Option exercise | 5,987 | 53,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 1,541 | 1,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | HSKB Funds II, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 27,278 | 214,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 29,400 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 91,384 | 185,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 3,469 | 17,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 1,541 | 242,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | McGrane Ashley | officer | Option exercise | 5,987 | 126,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 1,541 | 242,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 3,469 | 245,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 29,400 | 275,394 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 91,384 | 366,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | O'Brien Michael Graham | officer | Option exercise | 3,469 | 245,994 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.