GTES · TickerCove

GTESGates Industrial Corporation plcIndustrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $25.45 · now $25.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GTES has typically landed between $21.76 and $29.48 — a range of −14.5% to +15.8% from the issuance price $25.45.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,151 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-01-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($25.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$25.45 · 50% of range

$21.04 low$29.84 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.7%

typical move · IQR 12.4%

−14.5%worst (p90)+15.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where GTES has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $25.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $25.45 (+0.0%)
typical $25.62 (+0.7%)
middle 50% $24.05–$27.2
90% range $21.76–$29.48

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,151 windows spanning 2018-01-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-14	−54.5%	−54.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−53.0%	−53.0%	+0.3%
2020-02-21	−51.3%	−52.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07	+45.5%	+0.0%	+45.5%
2019-10-10	+41.3%	+0.0%	+41.3%
2020-04-22	+40.5%	+0.0%	+40.5%

2,151 overlapping windows · 2018-01-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

63%

+3.8%

n=8

Feb

78%

+3.8%

n=9

Mar

33%

−5.7%

n=9

Apr

56%

+2.6%

n=9

May

56%

−1.5%

n=9

Jun

67%

+2.2%

n=9

Jul

78%

+3.9%

n=9

Aug

33%

−4.1%

n=9

Sep

22%

−0.1%

n=9

Oct

38%

−1.9%

n=8

Nov

75%

+8.1%

n=8

Dec

25%

−0.2%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-06	Zhang Peifang	director	Sale	6,000 @ $28.62	$172K	−12.0% of holding	−9.4%	not yet — horizon still open	44,044	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05	Zhang Peifang	director	Sale	6,000 @ $29.56	$177K	−10.7% of holding	−14.5%	not yet — horizon still open	50,044	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-04	Zhang Peifang	director	Sale	5,000 @ $29.76	$149K	−8.2% of holding	−15.7%	not yet — horizon still open	56,044	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-26	Montgomery Gwendolyn Ann	officer	Sale	40,996 @ $22.60	$927K	−42.8% of holding	−4.3%	+2.9%	54,864	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-17	Montgomery Gwendolyn Ann	officer	Sale	2,338 @ $21.64	$51K	−2.4% of holding	−1.0%	+1.1%	95,860	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	Mallard Lawrence B	officer	Sale	22,188 @ $22.77	$505K	−11.1% of holding	−3.3%	−1.3%	177,627	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-07	Eliasson Fredrik J	director	Purchase	60,000 @ $19.56	$1.2M	+46.7% of holding	−7.0%	+15.4%	188,452	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

223 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-17	Patouhas John	officer	Withheld for tax	960	6,348	Form 4
2026-06-17	Patouhas John	officer	Option exercise	3,333	7,308	Form 4
2026-06-17	Patouhas John	officer	Option exercise	3,333	14,363	Form 4
2026-03-30	CANTIE JOSEPH S	director	Withheld for tax	4	13,964	Form 4
2026-03-04	Jurek Ivo	director	Withheld for tax	27,966	2,059,636	Form 4
2026-03-04	Mallard Lawrence B	officer	Withheld for tax	7,246	245,362	Form 4
2026-03-04	Pitstick Thomas G.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,651	288,421	Form 4
2026-03-04	Bracken Cristin C.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,367	169,923	Form 4
2026-03-04	Mallard Lawrence B	officer	Option exercise	16,552	252,608	Form 4
2026-03-04	CANTIE JOSEPH S	director	Award / grant	6,097	13,968	Form 4
2026-03-04	Bracken Cristin C.	officer	Option exercise	9,975	174,290	Form 4
2026-03-04	Eliasson Fredrik J	director	Award / grant	6,097	194,636	Form 4
2026-03-04	Neely Wilson S	director	Award / grant	6,097	129,198	Form 4
2026-03-04	Ireland James W	director	Award / grant	6,097	70,788	Form 4
2026-03-04	Pitstick Thomas G.	officer	Award / grant	20,576	47,273	Form 4
2026-03-04	Jurek Ivo	director	Award / grant	130,900	293,245	Form 4
2026-03-04	Jurek Ivo	director	Option exercise	63,891	162,345	Form 4
2026-03-04	Jurek Ivo	director	Option exercise	63,891	2,087,602	Form 4
2026-03-04	Pitstick Thomas G.	officer	Option exercise	10,625	26,697	Form 4
2026-03-04	Pitstick Thomas G.	officer	Option exercise	10,625	293,072	Form 4
2026-03-04	Bracken Cristin C.	officer	Award / grant	18,429	42,799	Form 4
2026-03-04	Patouhas John	officer	Award / grant	6,166	17,696	Form 4
2026-03-04	Mallard Lawrence B	officer	Award / grant	31,970	72,950	Form 4
2026-03-04	Mallard Lawrence B	officer	Option exercise	16,552	40,980	Form 4
2026-03-04	Bracken Cristin C.	officer	Option exercise	9,975	24,370	Form 4
2026-03-04	SIMPKINS NEIL P	director	Award / grant	11,623	42,809	Form 4
2026-03-04	Mains Stephanie K.	director	Award / grant	6,097	64,499	Form 4
2026-03-04	Zhang Peifang	director	Award / grant	6,097	61,044	Form 4
2026-03-01	Jurek Ivo	director	Withheld for tax	27,748	2,023,711	Form 4
2026-03-01	Mallard Lawrence B	officer	Withheld for tax	6,910	236,056	Form 4
2026-03-01	Pitstick Thomas G.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,713	282,447	Form 4
2026-03-01	Bracken Cristin C.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,261	164,315	Form 4
2026-03-01	Mallard Lawrence B	officer	Option exercise	15,785	242,966	Form 4
2026-03-01	Bracken Cristin C.	officer	Option exercise	9,734	34,345	Form 4
2026-03-01	Bracken Cristin C.	officer	Option exercise	9,734	168,576	Form 4
2026-03-01	Jurek Ivo	director	Option exercise	63,394	226,236	Form 4
2026-03-01	Pitstick Thomas G.	officer	Option exercise	10,767	287,160	Form 4
2026-03-01	Jurek Ivo	director	Option exercise	63,394	2,051,459	Form 4
2026-03-01	Mallard Lawrence B	officer	Option exercise	15,785	57,532	Form 4
2026-03-01	Pitstick Thomas G.	officer	Option exercise	10,767	37,322	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i