GT · TickerCove

GTThe Goodyear Tire & Rubber Companyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.16 · now $5.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GT has typically landed between $4.05 and $6.18 — a range of −21.4% to +19.8% from the issuance price $5.16.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$5.16 · 0% of range

$5.16 low$10.54 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.2%

typical move · IQR 17.0%

−21.4%worst (p90)+19.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

6 buys · 8 sells · 5 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where GT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $5.16 (+0.0%)
typical $5.1 (-1.2%)
middle 50% $4.66–$5.54
90% range $4.05–$6.18

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−59.8%	−59.8%	+0.6%
2008-10-22	−58.1%	−58.1%	+1.5%
2008-10-21	−56.9%	−56.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-06	+115.3%	+0.0%	+115.3%
2009-03-05	+107.9%	−1.3%	+107.9%
2009-03-30	+87.3%	+0.0%	+87.3%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

39%

−1.5%

n=18

Feb

47%

−0.4%

n=19

Mar

37%

−1.8%

n=19

Apr

53%

+6.3%

n=19

May

47%

+0.6%

n=19

Jun

37%

−2.7%

n=19

Jul

63%

+5.8%

n=19

Aug

37%

−5.4%

n=19

Sep

47%

−2.4%

n=19

Oct

39%

−1.0%

n=18

Nov

78%

+6.9%

n=18

Dec

61%

+0.6%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-11-14	WINKLER JASON J	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $7.54	$755K	ownership Δ n/a	+15.6%	−35.7%	100,000	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

247 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	van Kesteren Jan-Piet	officer	Withheld for tax	6,324	6,451	Form 4
2026-09-01	van Kesteren Jan-Piet	officer	Option exercise	12,775	25,550	Form 4
2026-09-01	van Kesteren Jan-Piet	officer	Option exercise	12,775	12,775	Form 4
2026-07-01	WINKLER JASON J	director	Award / grant	5,417	24,178	Form 4
2026-07-01	Gray Nicole	officer	Withheld for tax	2,281	20,501	Form 4
2026-07-01	Gray Nicole	officer	Option exercise	5,114	22,782	Form 4
2026-07-01	Gray Nicole	officer	Option exercise	5,114	5,114	Form 4
2026-07-01	DEAKIN SCOTT M	officer	Award / grant	77,399	77,399	Form 4
2026-07-01	Snyder Margaret V	officer	Award / grant	23,219	23,219	Form 4
2026-05-15	Stewart Mark Wynn	director	Withheld for tax	163,903	746,646	Form 4
2026-05-15	Boucharlat Gregory	officer	Withheld for tax	2,111	5,037	Form 4
2026-05-15	Boucharlat Gregory	officer	Option exercise	3,170	7,148	Form 4
2026-05-15	Stewart Mark Wynn	director	Option exercise	355,537	0	Form 4
2026-05-15	Stewart Mark Wynn	director	Option exercise	355,537	910,549	Form 4
2026-05-15	Boucharlat Gregory	officer	Option exercise	3,170	6,340	Form 4
2026-04-13	HAMILTON JULIE	director	Award / grant	25,605	25,605	Form 4
2026-04-13	KOELLNER LAURETTE T	director	Award / grant	25,605	163,204	Form 4
2026-04-13	Siu Hera K	director	Award / grant	25,605	25,605	Form 4
2026-04-13	WOOD ROGER	director	Award / grant	25,605	25,605	Form 4
2026-04-13	Wessel Michael	director	Award / grant	25,605	25,605	Form 4
2026-04-13	CLAYTON NORMA	director	Award / grant	25,605	112,221	Form 4
2026-04-13	FIRESTONE JAMES A	director	Award / grant	25,605	25,605	Form 4
2026-04-13	Hinrichs Joseph R	director	Award / grant	25,605	25,605	Form 4
2026-04-13	Lewis Karla R	director	Award / grant	25,605	25,605	Form 4
2026-04-13	MITCHELL MAX H	director	Award / grant	25,605	79,675	Form 4
2026-04-13	WINKLER JASON J	director	Award / grant	12,802	12,802	Form 4
2026-04-13	WINKLER JASON J	director	Award / grant	12,802	46,483	Form 4
2026-04-13	Geissler Werner	director	Withheld for tax	4,572	64,475	Form 4
2026-04-13	FIRESTONE JAMES A	director	Option exercise	19,047	0	Form 4
2026-04-13	Siu Hera K	director	Option exercise	9,523	9,523	Form 4
2026-04-13	Siu Hera K	director	Option exercise	9,523	0	Form 4
2026-04-13	Lewis Karla R	director	Option exercise	19,047	19,047	Form 4
2026-04-13	Lewis Karla R	director	Option exercise	19,047	0	Form 4
2026-04-13	FIRESTONE JAMES A	director	Option exercise	19,047	19,047	Form 4
2026-04-13	Geissler Werner	director	Option exercise	19,047	69,047	Form 4
2026-04-13	Geissler Werner	director	Option exercise	19,047	0	Form 4
2026-04-01	WINKLER JASON J	director	Award / grant	5,216	18,761	Form 4
2026-03-31	Snyder Margaret V	officer	Withheld for tax	3,073	12,622	Form 4
2026-03-31	Snyder Margaret V	officer	Option exercise	6,805	0	Form 4
2026-03-31	Snyder Margaret V	officer	Option exercise	6,805	15,695	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Diana Harshbarger	House	sale	2023-03-02	2023-02-08	$1–15K
Diana Harshbarger	House	sale	2023-03-02	2023-02-08	$1–15K
Peter Meijer	House	sale	2022-12-30	2021-02-16	<$1K
Susie Lee	House	sale	2022-12-29	2022-11-30	$1–15K
Susie Lee	House	purchase	2021-06-14	2021-05-14	$1–15K
Susie Lee	House	purchase	2021-02-10	2021-01-13	$1–15K
Susie Lee	House	purchase	2021-02-10	2021-01-12	$1–15K
Donna Shalala	House	sale	2020-04-27	2019-06-04	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2020-02-10	2020-01-08	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2019-11-12	2019-10-21	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2018-11-09	2018-10-02	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2018-09-12	2018-08-28	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2018-08-10	2018-07-24	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2018-05-10	2018-04-03	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i