Issued 2026-09-16 at $56.47 · now $56.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GSHD has typically landed between $42.93 and $71.03 — a range of −24.0% to +25.8% from the issuance price $56.47.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,087 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-04-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($56.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GSHD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $56.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $56.47 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $56.01 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $50.14–$61.88
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $42.93–$71.03
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,087 windows spanning 2018-04-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-08-15 | −45.1% | −45.1% | +1.2% |
| 2022-08-25 | −42.6% | −42.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-08-12 | −41.0% | −41.0% | +4.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2018-05-25 | +71.9% | −1.5% | +71.9% |
| 2018-05-18 | +67.6% | −0.7% | +67.6% |
| 2018-05-21 | +64.2% | −0.7% | +67.6% |
2,087 overlapping windows · 2018-04-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
75%
+2.5%
n=8
Feb
50%
+2.4%
n=8
Mar
13%
−10.0%
n=8
Apr
63%
−0.8%
n=8
May
56%
+0.6%
n=9
Jun
67%
+20.2%
n=9
Jul
67%
+15.1%
n=9
Aug
67%
+3.9%
n=9
Sep
56%
−5.0%
n=9
Oct
63%
+7.4%
n=8
Nov
50%
−3.0%
n=8
Dec
63%
−2.0%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | KEBODEAUX ADRIENNE | other | Sale | 7,000 @ $70.00 | $490K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Jones Serena | other | Sale | 5,000 @ $70.00 | $350K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Jones Serena | other | Sale | 3,893 @ $68.75 | $268K | −38.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,107 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Jones Serena | other | Sale | 1,107 @ $69.87 | $77K | −18.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Jones Serena | other | Sale | 4,875 @ $67.71 | $330K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Jones Serena | other | Sale | 125 @ $67.50 | $8K | −100.0% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 10,956 @ $66.71 | $731K | −62.6% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,558 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 4,967 @ $65.46 | $325K | −22.1% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,514 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 3,876 @ $68.44 | $265K | −100.0% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 2,682 @ $67.84 | $182K | −40.9% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,876 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 100,000 @ $65.31 | $6.5M | −100.0% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Durable Capital Partners LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 22,764 @ $61.88 | $1.4M | +0.9% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,556,768 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Durable Capital Partners LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 13,492 @ $62.00 | $837K | +0.5% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,570,260 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lane Peter R. | director | Purchase | 1,600 @ $63.14 | $101K | ownership Δ n/a | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,600 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 2,144 @ $66.45 | $142K | −100.0% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-30 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 375 @ $65.22 | $24K | −14.9% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,144 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-29 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 56,414 @ $70.29 | $4.0M | −100.0% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 47,182 @ $69.60 | $3.3M | −45.5% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,414 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 21,404 @ $68.43 | $1.5M | −17.1% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,596 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | KEBODEAUX ADRIENNE | other | Sale | 5,000 @ $65.20 | $326K | −100.0% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Chick & The Bear Irrevocable Trust | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,000 @ $65.03 | $325K | −100.0% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Durable Capital Partners LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 33,207 @ $61.87 | $2.1M | +1.3% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,529,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Durable Capital Partners LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,117 @ $62.00 | $255K | +0.2% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,534,004 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Durable Capital Partners LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,753 @ $59.51 | $164K | +0.1% of holding | +13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,496,680 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Durable Capital Partners LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 36,000 @ $58.50 | $2.1M | +1.5% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,493,927 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Durable Capital Partners LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 31,000 @ $57.75 | $1.8M | +1.3% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,411,281 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Durable Capital Partners LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $58.75 | $1.5M | +1.0% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,457,927 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Durable Capital Partners LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 21,646 @ $58.46 | $1.3M | +0.9% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,432,927 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Langston Patrick Ryan | other | Purchase | 2,800 @ $35.56 | $100K | +56.0% of holding | +42.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,800 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Martin John Arthur | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $34.73 | $174K | ownership Δ n/a | +37.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 6,466 @ $40.51 | $262K | −67.4% of holding | +27.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,122 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-27 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 3,122 @ $41.28 | $129K | −100.0% of holding | +27.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 45,588 @ $40.07 | $1.8M | −100.0% of holding | +11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 79,339 @ $41.74 | $3.3M | −95.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,350 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 3,350 @ $42.43 | $142K | −100.0% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-21 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 29,238 @ $40.62 | $1.2M | −41.3% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,513 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-21 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 20,730 @ $42.21 | $875K | −100.0% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-21 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 20,783 @ $41.57 | $864K | −50.1% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,730 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Thornthwaite Martin Ellis | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $41.50 | $208K | ownership Δ n/a | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | Jones Mark E. Jr. | officer | Purchase | 2,650 @ $37.50 | $99K | +60.7% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,014 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Miller Mark | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $36.89 | $184K | +14.3% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 5,090 @ $45.32 | $231K | −100.0% of holding | −22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 5,307 @ $48.07 | $255K | −100.0% of holding | −33.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 179 @ $49.06 | $9K | −100.0% of holding | −34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Goldberg Louis | director | Purchase | 5,575 @ $44.85 | $250K | ownership Δ n/a | +4.5% | +51.5% | 5,575 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | McConnon Thomas | director | Sale | 67,986 @ $73.60 | $5.0M | −20.1% of holding | −3.1% | −66.0% | 271,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | McConnon Thomas | director | Sale | 1,700 @ $74.56 | $127K | −0.6% of holding | −3.1% | −66.0% | 269,322 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Miller Mark | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $72.34 | $362K | +16.7% of holding | +3.4% | −61.3% | 35,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | O'Connor John Terry | officer | Purchase | 2,100 @ $71.81 | $151K | +210.0% of holding | +3.4% | −61.2% | 3,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Jones Mark E. Jr. | officer | Purchase | 866 @ $74.44 | $64K | +24.8% of holding | −1.7% | −39.7% | 4,364 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Jones Mark E. Jr. | officer | Purchase | 7 @ $74.45 | $521 | +0.2% of holding | −1.7% | −39.7% | 3,498 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | KEBODEAUX ADRIENNE | other | Sale | 3,000 @ $86.30 | $259K | −100.0% of holding | −10.4% | −56.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 600 @ $87.01 | $52K | −100.0% of holding | −8.9% | −47.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 17,831 @ $87.38 | $1.6M | −83.4% of holding | −10.4% | −50.0% | 3,560 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 2,860 @ $88.55 | $253K | −80.3% of holding | −10.4% | −50.0% | 700 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 700 @ $89.29 | $63K | −100.0% of holding | −10.4% | −50.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 21,919 @ $89.48 | $2.0M | −84.0% of holding | −13.0% | −48.5% | 4,175 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 19,896 @ $86.44 | $1.7M | −33.2% of holding | −13.0% | −48.5% | 40,104 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 9,565 @ $88.65 | $848K | −26.8% of holding | −13.0% | −48.5% | 26,094 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Sale | 4,445 @ $87.36 | $388K | −11.1% of holding | −13.0% | −48.5% | 35,659 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
131 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Gift | 100,000 | 6,645,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Jones Mark Evan | director | Gift | 100,000 | 182,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Jones Mark Evan | director | Gift | 100,000 | 282,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Jones Serena | other | Conversion | 10,000 | 352,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | KEBODEAUX ADRIENNE | other | Conversion | 7,000 | 7,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | KEBODEAUX ADRIENNE | other | Conversion | 7,000 | 273,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Jones Serena | other | Conversion | 10,000 | 136,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Jones Serena | other | Conversion | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Jones Serena | other | Conversion | 4,875 | 362,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Jones Serena | other | Conversion | 4,875 | 146,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Jones Serena | other | Conversion | 4,875 | 4,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Jones Mark Evan | director | Gift | 100 | 38,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Jones Serena | other | Conversion | 125 | 125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Jones Serena | other | Conversion | 125 | 367,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Jones Serena | other | Conversion | 125 | 151,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 22,481 | 6,745,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 22,481 | 22,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 100,000 | 6,767,661 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 2,519 | 2,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 2,519 | 6,867,661 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 125,000 | 125,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 125,000 | 6,870,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | KEBODEAUX ADRIENNE | other | Conversion | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Chick & The Bear Irrevocable Trust | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000 | 58,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Chick & The Bear Irrevocable Trust | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | KEBODEAUX ADRIENNE | other | Conversion | 5,000 | 280,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 9,588 | 9,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 9,588 | 6,995,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 45,588 | 45,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 45,588 | 7,004,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 82,689 | 82,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 82,689 | 7,050,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 70,751 | 70,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014 | other | Conversion | 70,751 | 7,133,045 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Lane Peter R. | director | Award / grant | 13,979 | 13,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Wade William Francis Jr | director | Award / grant | 13,979 | 13,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Goldberg Louis | director | Award / grant | 13,979 | 13,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Langston Patrick Ryan | other | Award / grant | 6,989 | 6,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Reid James | director | Award / grant | 13,979 | 13,979 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.