Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.79 · now $9.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GSBD has typically landed between $8.85 and $10.60 — a range of −9.6% to +8.3% from the issuance price $9.79.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,871 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-03-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GSBD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9.79 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.85 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.48–$10.22
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.85–$10.6
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −62.4% | −62.4% | +0.5% |
| 2020-02-21 | −55.6% | −60.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −53.3% | −62.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +74.7% | +0.0% | +74.7% |
| 2020-03-23 | +48.0% | +0.0% | +54.9% |
| 2020-03-20 | +34.3% | −9.3% | +40.4% |
2,871 overlapping windows · 2015-03-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Leach Timothy J | director | Purchase | 2,004 @ $9.04 | $18K | +11.3% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,675 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Evans Carlos E | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $9.02 | $451K | +346.1% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,446 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Greene Tucker | officer | Purchase | 10,500 @ $9.86 | $104K | ownership Δ n/a | +1.9% | −10.4% | 10,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Bantwal Vivek | officer | Purchase | 22,000 @ $11.36 | $250K | ownership Δ n/a | −10.2% | −15.2% | 22,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.