GRPN · TickerCove

GRPNGroupon, Inc.Communication Services · Internet Content & Informationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.33 · now $19.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GRPN has typically landed between $13.28 and $28.24 — a range of −31.3% to +46.1% from the issuance price $19.33.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,715 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-11-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$19.33 · 51% of range

$9.64 low$28.58 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.8%

typical move · IQR 32.7%

−31.3%worst (p90)+46.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where GRPN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $19.33 (+0.0%)
typical $18.98 (-1.8%)
middle 50% $15.83–$22.14
90% range $13.28–$28.24

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,715 windows spanning 2011-11-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−83.9%	−83.9%	+0.0%
2020-02-14	−77.0%	−77.0%	+7.8%
2020-02-13	−77.0%	−77.0%	+3.0%
3 best
2020-07-30	+112.7%	−0.6%	+112.7%
2020-07-27	+110.7%	−0.5%	+113.4%
2020-07-28	+109.9%	+0.0%	+114.5%

3,715 overlapping windows · 2011-11-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

47%

+0.9%

n=15

Feb

40%

+0.3%

n=15

Mar

33%

−2.2%

n=15

Apr

33%

−3.1%

n=15

May

53%

+9.8%

n=15

Jun

47%

−0.8%

n=15

Jul

33%

−0.5%

n=15

Aug

47%

+3.9%

n=15

Sep

40%

−4.9%

n=15

Oct

29%

−6.7%

n=14

Nov

43%

+1.9%

n=14

Dec

80%

+8.7%

n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-08-12	Bass Robert J	director	Sale	3,055 @ $31.64	$97K	−2.9% of holding	−24.8%	−68.7%	101,676	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

98 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-03	Rajkumar Aditya Vikram	officer	Award / grant	77,500	77,500	Form 4
2026-07-30	Kashyap Rana	officer	Withheld for tax	6,661	197,365	Form 4
2026-07-30	Netzly Kyle	officer	Withheld for tax	2,045	33,872	Form 4
2026-07-30	Kashyap Rana	officer	Option exercise	14,374	159,869	Form 4
2026-07-30	Netzly Kyle	officer	Option exercise	4,950	35,917	Form 4
2026-07-30	Netzly Kyle	officer	Option exercise	4,950	55,050	Form 4
2026-07-30	Kashyap Rana	officer	Option exercise	14,374	204,026	Form 4
2026-07-28	Shah Amit	director	Award / grant	3,348	16,488	Form 4
2026-06-11	Senkypl Dusan	director	Withheld for tax	1,347,185	2,850,579	Form 4
2026-06-11	Senkypl Dusan	director	Award / grant	3,062,500	4,197,764	Form 4
2026-06-11	Harinstein Jason	director	Option exercise	5,766	61,424	Form 4
2026-06-11	Harinstein Jason	director	Award / grant	12,349	73,773	Form 4
2026-06-11	Harinstein Jason	director	Option exercise	5,766	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Leonsis Theodore	director	Option exercise	6,685	225,285	Form 4
2026-06-11	Leonsis Theodore	director	Option exercise	6,685	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Leonsis Theodore	director	Award / grant	15,116	15,116	Form 4
2026-06-11	Shah Amit	director	Award / grant	13,140	13,140	Form 4
2026-06-11	Senkypl Dusan	director	Option exercise	3,062,500	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Bass Robert J	director	Award / grant	13,140	120,990	Form 4
2026-06-11	Bass Robert J	director	Option exercise	6,174	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Bass Robert J	director	Option exercise	6,174	107,850	Form 4
2026-05-20	Netzly Kyle	officer	Option exercise	4,267	32,878	Form 4
2026-05-20	Netzly Kyle	officer	Withheld for tax	1,911	30,967	Form 4
2026-05-20	Netzly Kyle	officer	Option exercise	4,267	4,267	Form 4
2026-05-01	Ponrt Jiri	officer	Withheld for tax	57,315	264,216	Form 4
2026-05-01	Kashyap Rana	officer	Withheld for tax	35,973	189,652	Form 4
2026-05-01	Kashyap Rana	officer	Option exercise	77,625	158,391	Form 4
2026-05-01	Kashyap Rana	officer	Option exercise	77,625	225,625	Form 4
2026-05-01	Kashyap Rana	officer	Award / grant	63,870	63,870	Form 4
2026-05-01	Senkypl Dusan	director	Option exercise	345,003	1,135,264	Form 4
2026-05-01	Senkypl Dusan	director	Option exercise	345,003	703,945	Form 4
2026-05-01	Ponrt Jiri	officer	Option exercise	129,375	321,531	Form 4
2026-05-01	Ponrt Jiri	officer	Option exercise	129,375	263,981	Form 4
2026-05-01	Ponrt Jiri	officer	Award / grant	17,419	17,419	Form 4
2026-05-01	Netzly Kyle	officer	Award / grant	9,197	9,197	Form 4
2026-05-01	Netzly Kyle	officer	Award / grant	6,131	6,131	Form 4
2026-03-12	Ponrt Jiri	officer	Withheld for tax	1,070	191,069	Form 4
2026-03-12	Ponrt Jiri	officer	Withheld for tax	1,070	192,156	Form 4
2026-03-12	Ponrt Jiri	officer	Withheld for tax	1,070	189,982	Form 4
2026-03-12	Ponrt Jiri	officer	Option exercise	2,157	2,157	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i