Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.95 · now $4.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GRNT has typically landed between $4.19 and $5.71 — a range of −15.3% to +15.3% from the issuance price $4.95.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,449 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GRNT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.95 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.96 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.7–$5.22
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.19–$5.71
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-01-27 | −30.0% | −30.0% | +0.0% |
| 2023-08-14 | −29.7% | −29.7% | +0.3% |
| 2023-08-11 | −29.5% | −29.5% | +0.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-05-19 | +32.6% | +0.0% | +32.6% |
| 2023-05-11 | +30.3% | −2.9% | +30.3% |
| 2023-05-12 | +27.0% | +0.0% | +34.2% |
1,449 overlapping windows · 2020-11-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.03 | $50K | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,974,292 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Kettler Ronald Kyle | officer | Purchase | 6,000 @ $5.05 | $30K | +4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 135,276 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.04 | $25K | +3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 154,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $5.00 | $10K | +1.4% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,143 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Everard Michele J | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $5.00 | $5K | +1.4% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,143 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 696 @ $4.97 | $3K | +0.1% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,361,509 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $4.96 | $20K | +2.8% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 10,600 @ $4.75 | $50K | +0.8% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,360,813 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-27 | Kettler Ronald Kyle | officer | Purchase | 6,000 @ $5.08 | $30K | +4.9% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,276 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $5.54 | $22K | +2.9% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 143,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $5.81 | $17K | +2.2% of holding | −18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Perry Griffin | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $5.49 | $549K | +9.4% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,163,903 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Everard Michele J | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $5.28 | $5K | +1.4% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,143 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 18,180 @ $5.21 | $95K | +1.4% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,350,213 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | Farquharson Tyler | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.15 | $52K | +3.0% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 344,743 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-13 | Kettler Ronald Kyle | officer | Purchase | 3,000 @ $5.17 | $16K | +2.5% of holding | −2.4% | −14.3% | 123,276 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 658 @ $5.15 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | −2.4% | −14.3% | 1,328,839 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Everard Michele J | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.17 | $26K | +7.6% of holding | +5.7% | −13.4% | 71,143 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.16 | $26K | +3.8% of holding | +5.7% | −13.4% | 136,143 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $5.12 | $10K | +1.5% of holding | +9.1% | −9.8% | 131,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Farquharson Tyler | officer | Purchase | 12,500 @ $5.21 | $65K | +3.9% of holding | +11.1% | −9.3% | 334,743 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.10 | $51K | +0.8% of holding | +11.1% | −9.3% | 1,328,181 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Kettler Ronald Kyle | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.18 | $26K | +4.3% of holding | +11.1% | −9.3% | 120,276 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 648 @ $5.13 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | −10.2% | −10.1% | 1,298,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.26 | $26K | +4.6% of holding | −16.4% | −5.1% | 113,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $5.41 | $22K | +3.8% of holding | −23.2% | −15.2% | 108,117 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 9,388 @ $5.33 | $50K | +0.7% of holding | −19.0% | −13.5% | 1,297,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 1,026 @ $5.23 | $5K | +1.0% of holding | −9.8% | −10.9% | 104,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Lazarine Kirk | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.00 | $25K | +0.5% of holding | −10.9% | −12.6% | 1,051,997 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | Lazarine Kirk | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $4.95 | $25K | +0.5% of holding | −10.9% | −12.6% | 1,046,997 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $5.05 | $20K | +4.0% of holding | −7.7% | +2.7% | 103,091 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $5.07 | $20K | +4.2% of holding | −7.0% | −1.8% | 99,091 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $5.18 | $21K | +4.4% of holding | −4.2% | +3.0% | 95,091 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $5.17 | $21K | +4.6% of holding | −3.6% | −0.5% | 91,091 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $5.26 | $21K | +4.8% of holding | −0.7% | −4.3% | 87,091 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 600 @ $5.35 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | −1.7% | +1.5% | 1,284,664 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 974 @ $5.30 | $5K | +1.2% of holding | −3.4% | −10.0% | 83,091 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.25 | $26K | +6.5% of holding | +3.5% | −7.1% | 82,117 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.30 | $27K | +6.9% of holding | +5.3% | −8.0% | 77,117 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $5.41 | $16K | +4.3% of holding | −1.1% | −12.3% | 72,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 18,700 @ $5.36 | $100K | +1.5% of holding | +0.3% | −9.1% | 1,284,064 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-12 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $5.34 | $16K | +4.5% of holding | +0.3% | −9.1% | 69,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Everard Michele J | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $5.33 | $5K | +2.0% of holding | +0.3% | −9.1% | 50,117 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-16 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 17,000 @ $5.98 | $102K | +1.4% of holding | −16.5% | −27.2% | 1,261,877 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-13 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 544 @ $5.98 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | −16.9% | −26.9% | 1,262,421 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Brandenberg Luke C | officer | Purchase | 6,100 @ $5.80 | $35K | +4.0% of holding | +0.8% | −19.2% | 157,267 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-03 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $5.89 | $12K | +3.1% of holding | +3.3% | −22.3% | 66,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $5.72 | $11K | +3.2% of holding | +4.9% | −21.0% | 64,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Everard Michele J | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $5.53 | $6K | +2.1% of holding | +8.3% | −18.6% | 49,117 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-15 | Brandenberg Luke C | officer | Purchase | 18,252 @ $5.55 | $101K | +13.7% of holding | +7.5% | −17.6% | 151,167 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Darden Thaddeus | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $5.63 | $17K | +0.9% of holding | +3.7% | −21.5% | 354,658 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-14 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 562 @ $5.77 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | −12.6% | −22.0% | 1,241,793 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 506 @ $6.03 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | +14.5% | +11.4% | 1,229,953 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Brandenberg Luke C | officer | Purchase | 1,505 @ $6.07 | $9K | +1.4% of holding | +13.3% | +2.5% | 110,633 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-11 | Brandenberg Luke C | officer | Purchase | 8,495 @ $6.10 | $52K | +8.4% of holding | +15.6% | +1.6% | 109,128 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Purchase | 41,000 @ $6.10 | $250K | +5.6% of holding | +13.1% | +3.0% | 772,491 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-06 | Darden Thaddeus | director | Purchase | 9,440 @ $6.13 | $58K | +4.3% of holding | +13.1% | +3.0% | 230,596 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Brandenberg Luke C | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $6.21 | $9K | +1.5% of holding | +10.8% | −1.9% | 100,633 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-05 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $6.24 | $6K | +2.0% of holding | +10.8% | −1.9% | 50,839 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
59 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Lazarine Kirk | director | Other acquisition | 592,733 | 1,660,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Other acquisition | 598,531 | 1,964,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Adams Jonathan Anson | director | Award / grant | 19,305 | 19,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Adams Jonathan Anson | director | Award / grant | 5,315 | 25,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Cocke John | director | Award / grant | 19,305 | 19,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Cocke John | director | Award / grant | 5,315 | 24,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Darden Thaddeus | director | Other acquisition | 220,418 | 591,102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Perry Griffin | director | Other acquisition | 592,733 | 1,756,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Award / grant | 4,252 | 1,365,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Award / grant | 3,194 | 1,332,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Weimer Kimberly | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,099 | 97,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Weimer Kimberly | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,543 | 99,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Weimer Kimberly | officer | Award / grant | 26,616 | 100,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Farquharson Tyler | officer | Award / grant | 21,515 | 296,102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Farquharson Tyler | officer | Award / grant | 26,141 | 322,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Farquharson Tyler | officer | Award / grant | 61,937 | 360,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kettler Ronald Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 17,110 | 115,276 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kettler Ronald Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 40,541 | 40,541 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Kettler Ronald Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 97,466 | 292,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Kettler Ronald Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 97,466 | 98,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Kettler Ronald Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 97,466 | 97,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Kettler Ronald Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 97,466 | 194,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Coussens Amanda N. | director | Award / grant | 16,026 | 60,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Everard Michele J | director | Award / grant | 16,026 | 66,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Perry Griffin | director | Award / grant | 16,026 | 1,063,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | MCCARTNEY JOHN | director | Award / grant | 16,026 | 129,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Darden Thaddeus | director | Award / grant | 16,026 | 370,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lazarine Kirk | director | Award / grant | 16,026 | 1,068,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Award / grant | 16,026 | 1,318,181 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Award / grant | 3,989 | 1,302,155 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Award / grant | 3,466 | 1,288,130 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Miller Matthew Reade | director | Award / grant | 2,943 | 1,265,364 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Farquharson Tyler | officer | Award / grant | 171,821 | 274,587 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Farquharson Tyler | officer | Award / grant | 171,821 | 171,821 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Farquharson Tyler | officer | Award / grant | 171,821 | 343,642 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Farquharson Tyler | officer | Award / grant | 171,822 | 515,464 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Weimer Kimberly | officer | Award / grant | 42,955 | 73,940 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Weimer Kimberly | officer | Award / grant | 42,955 | 85,910 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Weimer Kimberly | officer | Award / grant | 42,956 | 128,866 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Weimer Kimberly | officer | Award / grant | 42,955 | 42,955 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.