Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.53 · now $15.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GRND has typically landed between $12.71 and $18.98 — a range of −18.2% to +22.2% from the issuance price $15.53.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,402 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-01-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GRND has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.53 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.58 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.69–$16.47
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.71–$18.98
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,402 windows spanning 2021-01-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-11-21 | −71.1% | −72.0% | +0.0% |
| 2022-11-22 | −58.0% | −58.0% | +0.0% |
| 2022-11-16 | −51.8% | −53.6% | +65.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-10-20 | +89.0% | −7.7% | +89.0% |
| 2026-06-05 | +47.0% | +0.0% | +47.3% |
| 2026-06-03 | +46.1% | −1.8% | +47.3% |
1,402 overlapping windows · 2021-01-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
+0.3%
n=5
Feb
67%
+2.4%
n=6
Mar
50%
+3.1%
n=6
Apr
83%
+5.4%
n=6
May
33%
−0.5%
n=6
Jun
50%
+4.7%
n=6
Jul
67%
−0.0%
n=6
Aug
50%
−4.9%
n=6
Sep
67%
+1.3%
n=6
Oct
80%
+1.7%
n=5
Nov
40%
−2.9%
n=5
Dec
80%
+4.1%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Katz Zachary | officer | Sale | 15,227 @ $15.57 | $237K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 633,227 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Balance Austin J | officer | Sale | 89,638 @ $15.46 | $1.4M | −9.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 850,056 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Baer Daniel Brooks | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $15.65 | $55K | −6.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Katz Zachary | officer | Sale | 10,172 @ $15.83 | $161K | −1.5% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 680,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Katz Zachary | officer | Sale | 12,979 @ $17.89 | $232K | −1.8% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 690,172 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Katz Zachary | officer | Sale | 10,172 @ $15.95 | $162K | −1.4% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 703,151 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Katz Zachary | officer | Sale | 12,800 @ $16.28 | $208K | −1.8% of holding | +10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 713,323 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Katz Zachary | officer | Sale | 12,799 @ $14.65 | $188K | −1.7% of holding | +20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 726,123 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Katz Zachary | officer | Sale | 10,172 @ $13.29 | $135K | −1.4% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 738,922 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Richardson Nathan | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $12.59 | $19K | −18.0% of holding | +25.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,833 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Balance Austin J | officer | Sale | 18,462 @ $15.00 | $277K | −2.0% of holding | −24.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 913,390 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Balance Austin J | officer | Sale | 13,153 @ $15.00 | $197K | −1.4% of holding | −24.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 931,852 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Richardson Nathan | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $13.51 | $20K | −15.3% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,333 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Richardson Nathan | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $12.17 | $18K | −13.2% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,833 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Richardson Nathan | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $11.27 | $17K | −11.7% of holding | +10.0% | +22.1% | 11,333 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 475,000 @ $10.01 | $4.8M | −2.5% of holding | +18.4% | +47.3% | 18,432,101 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-05 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 600,000 @ $10.07 | $6.0M | −3.1% of holding | +20.7% | +52.4% | 18,907,101 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 375,000 @ $10.13 | $3.8M | −1.9% of holding | +14.7% | +53.9% | 19,507,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 234,339 @ $10.73 | $2.5M | −1.2% of holding | +12.1% | +57.3% | 19,882,101 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 178,427 @ $11.14 | $2.0M | −0.9% of holding | +3.7% | +51.6% | 20,116,440 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Richardson Nathan | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $11.18 | $17K | −10.5% of holding | +3.7% | +51.6% | 12,833 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $11.27 | $2.3M | −1.0% of holding | +1.7% | +48.1% | 20,294,867 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $11.74 | $2.3M | −1.0% of holding | +0.7% | +41.3% | 20,494,867 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-26 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 239,000 @ $11.97 | $2.9M | −1.1% of holding | −6.7% | +31.2% | 20,694,867 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $11.90 | $2.4M | −0.9% of holding | −5.6% | +21.7% | 20,933,867 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $11.98 | $2.4M | −0.9% of holding | −5.1% | +16.1% | 21,133,867 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-21 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $11.99 | $2.4M | −0.9% of holding | −6.5% | +14.8% | 21,333,867 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $12.06 | $2.4M | −0.9% of holding | −10.7% | +9.4% | 21,533,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 112,368 @ $13.23 | $1.5M | −96.2% of holding | −20.7% | +11.1% | 4,455 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 302,939 @ $13.22 | $4.0M | −72.2% of holding | −18.3% | +9.4% | 116,823 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 92,071 @ $13.53 | $1.2M | −18.0% of holding | −22.2% | +11.8% | 419,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Richardson Nathan | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $13.66 | $20K | −9.5% of holding | −22.1% | +7.1% | 14,333 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 3,628 @ $13.50 | $49K | −0.7% of holding | −14.5% | +8.0% | 511,833 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 43,994 @ $13.51 | $594K | −7.9% of holding | −14.6% | −2.2% | 515,461 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $13.80 | $1.4M | −15.2% of holding | −14.0% | −2.7% | 559,455 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Zage George Raymond III | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $13.51 | $676K | +0.6% of holding | −2.8% | −23.7% | 8,113,283 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Zage George Raymond III | director | Purchase | 80,000 @ $13.50 | $1.1M | +1.0% of holding | −4.8% | −27.6% | 8,063,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Zage George Raymond III | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $13.56 | $1.4M | +1.3% of holding | −2.6% | −27.8% | 7,983,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Zage George Raymond III | director | Purchase | 75,000 @ $13.48 | $1.0M | +5.7% of holding | −2.6% | −27.8% | 1,385,507 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Zage George Raymond III | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $12.95 | $1.3M | +8.3% of holding | +1.8% | −29.4% | 1,310,507 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Zage George Raymond III | director | Purchase | 150,000 @ $12.91 | $1.9M | +14.1% of holding | +4.8% | −26.7% | 1,210,507 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Richardson Nathan | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $12.70 | $19K | −8.7% of holding | +4.8% | −26.7% | 15,833 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Zage George Raymond III | director | Purchase | 150,000 @ $12.88 | $1.9M | +1.9% of holding | +3.7% | −20.5% | 7,883,283 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Katz Zachary | officer | Sale | 29,383 @ $12.52 | $368K | −6.0% of holding | +4.4% | −13.6% | 461,137 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 75,748 @ $13.65 | $1.0M | −0.3% of holding | −4.3% | −21.1% | 22,388,867 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | Richardson Nathan | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $13.55 | $20K | −8.0% of holding | −4.3% | −21.1% | 17,333 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 4,316 @ $14.01 | $60K | −0.0% of holding | −2.9% | −17.5% | 22,464,615 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 363,665 @ $14.10 | $5.1M | −1.6% of holding | −5.5% | −16.4% | 22,468,931 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Richardson Nathan | director | Sale | 485 @ $14.03 | $7K | −2.5% of holding | −5.5% | −16.4% | 18,833 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 205,579 @ $14.45 | $3.0M | −0.9% of holding | −10.3% | −15.3% | 22,832,596 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-13 | Katz Zachary | officer | Sale | 13,781 @ $14.39 | $198K | −2.7% of holding | −10.3% | −15.3% | 490,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 291,948 @ $14.80 | $4.3M | −1.3% of holding | −9.9% | −18.1% | 23,038,175 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 558,744 @ $14.99 | $8.4M | −2.3% of holding | −9.5% | −18.4% | 23,330,123 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Balance Austin J | officer | Sale | 21,007 @ $15.11 | $317K | −3.9% of holding | −9.5% | −18.4% | 521,082 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Balance Austin J | officer | Sale | 13,153 @ $15.04 | $198K | −2.4% of holding | −9.5% | −18.4% | 542,089 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Katz Zachary | officer | Sale | 15,601 @ $13.73 | $214K | −2.8% of holding | −1.5% | −9.5% | 532,738 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 250,000 @ $13.13 | $3.3M | −1.0% of holding | +6.8% | −4.0% | 23,888,867 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 400,000 @ $12.66 | $5.1M | −1.6% of holding | +8.3% | −2.9% | 24,138,867 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Lu James Fu Bin | director | Sale | 400,000 @ $12.96 | $5.2M | −1.6% of holding | +12.0% | −3.7% | 24,538,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Richardson Nathan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $13.50 | $14K | −4.9% of holding | +12.8% | −5.0% | 19,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
128 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Katz Zachary | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,546 | 648,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Balance Austin J | officer | Option exercise | 26,304 | 939,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Balance Austin J | officer | Option exercise | 26,304 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Arison George | director | Award / grant | 2,250,000 | 3,620,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Arison George | director | Gift | 175,000 | 1,370,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Baer Daniel Brooks | director | Award / grant | 5,205 | 51,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Cohen Chad M | director | Award / grant | 13,593 | 24,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Cohen Chad M | director | Award / grant | 4,049 | 28,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | GEARON J MICHAEL JR | director | Award / grant | 13,593 | 24,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | GEARON J MICHAEL JR | director | Award / grant | 2,602 | 26,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Gersh Lisa | director | Award / grant | 13,593 | 13,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Gersh Lisa | director | Award / grant | 1,734 | 15,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Zage George Raymond III | director | Award / grant | 13,593 | 8,126,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Zage George Raymond III | director | Award / grant | 867 | 8,127,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Hanna Fadi | director | Award / grant | 1,735 | 15,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Hanna Fadi | director | Award / grant | 13,593 | 13,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Solomon Robert | director | Award / grant | 1,734 | 15,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Solomon Robert | director | Award / grant | 13,593 | 13,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Baer Daniel Brooks | director | Award / grant | 13,593 | 46,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Balance Austin J | officer | Option exercise | 13,153 | 945,005 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Balance Austin J | officer | Option exercise | 13,153 | 26,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Arison George | director | Withheld for tax | 190,800 | 1,545,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Arison George | director | Withheld for tax | 109,972 | 1,736,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Balance Austin J | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,355 | 931,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Katz Zachary | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,050 | 749,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | North John F | director | Withheld for tax | 4,385 | 743,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | North John F | director | Award / grant | 18,003 | 748,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Balance Austin J | officer | Award / grant | 37,220 | 945,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Katz Zachary | officer | Award / grant | 28,007 | 759,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Arison George | director | Award / grant | 240,069 | 1,996,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Arison George | director | Gift | 200,000 | 1,755,971 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Balance Austin J | officer | Withheld for tax | 38,095 | 907,987 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Balance Austin J | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Balance Austin J | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Balance Austin J | officer | Award / grant | 425,000 | 946,082 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Katz Zachary | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Katz Zachary | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-30 | Katz Zachary | officer | Award / grant | 270,000 | 760,520 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Katz Zachary | officer | Withheld for tax | 28,437 | 504,301 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-11 | Balance Austin J | officer | Option exercise | 13,153 | 555,242 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.