GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Residential Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $66.27 · now $66.80 (2026-09-17, +0.8% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GRBK has typically landed between $56.02 and $79.81 — a range of −15.5% to +20.4% from the issuance price $66.27.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,816 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-06-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($66.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GRBK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $66.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$56.02worst · -15.5%$79.81best · +20.4%
  • now $66.8 (+0.8%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $67.88 (+2.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $62.68–$73.07
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $56.02–$79.81
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,817 windows spanning 2007-06-20 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-08-29−62.0%−62.0%+0.0%
2008-09-04−61.5%−61.5%+2.4%
2008-08-08−61.1%−61.1%+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-08+399.5%−14.0%+399.5%
2011-10-20+326.3%−8.7%+326.3%
2011-10-19+322.0%−8.7%+322.0%

4,817 overlapping windows · 2007-06-20 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Feb
42%
+2.0%
n=19
Mar
58%
+0.0%
n=19
Apr
42%
+3.2%
n=19
May
42%
+4.7%
n=19
Jun
53%
−4.9%
n=19
Jul
50%
+5.6%
n=20
Aug
50%
−3.4%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.0%
n=20
Oct
47%
+13.6%
n=19
Nov
58%
+1.5%
n=19
Dec
53%
+3.1%
n=19

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$81$612026-06-09: 2 insider sales, $353K — Press Richard S …2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $180K — Press Richard S2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $211K — Press Richard S2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $209K — Press Richard S2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Dolson Jed2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $2.8M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $180K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $353K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Press Richard S — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Press Richard S — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Press Richard S — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Press Richard S — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Press Richard S — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Dolson Jed — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-09Press Richard SdirectorSale3,000 @ $70.59$212K−3.7% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open77,674Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-09Press Richard SdirectorSale2,000 @ $70.58$141K−2.4% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open80,674Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Press Richard SdirectorSale2,500 @ $72.02$180K−2.9% of holding−6.0%−12.6%82,674Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-19Press Richard SdirectorSale3,000 @ $70.21$211K−3.5% of holding+1.5%+5.6%83,008Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18Press Richard SdirectorSale3,000 @ $69.75$209K−3.4% of holding+1.9%+8.0%86,008Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-13Dolson JedofficerSale15,000 @ $68.76$1.0M−5.5% of holding+1.8%+3.1%258,605Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12Dolson JedofficerSale20,000 @ $66.76$1.3M−6.8% of holding+9.8%+6.9%273,605Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Suit Neal JofficerSale2,787 @ $59.73$166K−12.8% of holding+3.8%+7.4%18,974Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-22Press Richard SdirectorSale3,500 @ $69.04$242K−4.0% of holding−19.7%−16.4%84,543Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-11-13EINHORN DAVIDdirectorPurchase1,017,163 @ $69.16$70.3M+13.3% of holding−9.2%−11.1%8,642,507Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-13EINHORN DAVIDdirectorSale539,349 @ $69.16$37.3M−6.6% of holding−9.2%−11.1%7,625,344Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-11-13EINHORN DAVIDdirectorSale477,814 @ $69.16$33.0M−36.7% of holding−9.2%−11.1%824,876Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

63 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-15PARK ERIC JOHNofficerAward / grant1,3751,375Form 4
2026-03-26Suit Neal JofficerAward / grant4,3574,357Form 4
2026-03-26Brickman James R.directorAward / grant16,91716,917Form 4
2026-03-26SAMUEL BOBBY L IIIofficerAward / grant2,5632,563Form 4
2026-03-26COX JEFFERY DEANofficerAward / grant3,3323,332Form 4
2026-03-26Dolson JedofficerAward / grant12,81612,816Form 4
2026-03-06SAMUEL BOBBY L IIIofficerWithheld for tax3,05810,783Form 4
2026-03-06COX JEFFERY DEANofficerWithheld for tax93734Form 4
2026-03-06COX JEFFERY DEANofficerOption exercise2350Form 4
2026-03-06SAMUEL BOBBY L IIIofficerOption exercise4,5249,463Form 4
2026-03-06SAMUEL BOBBY L IIIofficerOption exercise4,37813,841Form 4
2026-03-06SAMUEL BOBBY L IIIofficerOption exercise4,5240Form 4
2026-03-06SAMUEL BOBBY L IIIofficerOption exercise4,3780Form 4
2026-03-06COX JEFFERY DEANofficerOption exercise235827Form 4
2026-03-03Brickman James R.directorWithheld for tax2,4161,652,861Form 4
2026-03-03Dolson JedofficerWithheld for tax1,464269,724Form 4
2026-03-03COX JEFFERY DEANofficerWithheld for tax385592Form 4
2026-03-03Suit Neal JofficerWithheld for tax36617,986Form 4
2026-03-03SAMUEL BOBBY L IIIofficerWithheld for tax3204,939Form 4
2026-03-03SAMUEL BOBBY L IIIofficerOption exercise9305,259Form 4
2026-03-03COX JEFFERY DEANofficerAward / grant977977Form 4
2026-03-03COX JEFFERY DEANofficerOption exercise9771,956Form 4
2026-03-03Brickman James R.directorOption exercise6,1381,655,277Form 4
2026-03-03Brickman James R.directorOption exercise6,13812,278Form 4
2026-03-03Suit Neal JofficerOption exercise9301,860Form 4
2026-03-03SAMUEL BOBBY L IIIofficerOption exercise9301,860Form 4
2026-03-03Dolson JedofficerOption exercise3,720271,188Form 4
2026-03-03Dolson JedofficerOption exercise3,7207,441Form 4
2026-03-03Suit Neal JofficerOption exercise93018,352Form 4
2026-03-02Olsen KathleendirectorDisposition7,50065,124Form 4
2026-03-02Brickman James R.directorWithheld for tax6,9401,649,139Form 4
2026-03-02Dolson JedofficerWithheld for tax5,205267,468Form 4
2026-03-02Press Richard SdirectorAward / grant2,03685,174Form 4
2026-03-02BLAKE ELIZABETHdirectorAward / grant4,412157,887Form 4
2026-03-02Dolson JedofficerAward / grant14,068272,673Form 4
2026-03-02Brandler HarrydirectorAward / grant3,66569,259Form 4
2026-03-02MURPHY LILA AdirectorAward / grant3,80122,384Form 4
2026-03-02Brickman James R.directorAward / grant18,7571,656,079Form 4
2026-03-02Olsen KathleendirectorAward / grant2,71572,624Form 4
2025-07-08Press Richard SdirectorGift30089,008Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.