Issued 2026-09-16 at $75.11 · now $75.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GRAL has typically landed between $54.56 and $124.01 — a range of −27.4% to +65.1% from the issuance price $75.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
546 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-06-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($75.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GRAL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $75.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $75.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $80.4 (+7.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $69.35–$91.45
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $54.56–$124.01
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 546 windows spanning 2024-06-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-22 | −62.9% | −62.9% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-10 | −57.2% | −58.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-11 | −57.1% | −57.1% | +1.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-01-15 | +213.0% | −1.0% | +213.0% |
| 2025-01-17 | +202.0% | +0.0% | +215.8% |
| 2025-01-14 | +190.5% | −3.8% | +190.5% |
546 overlapping windows · 2024-06-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+42.0%
n=2
Feb
50%
−9.1%
n=2
Mar
0%
−18.3%
n=2
Apr
100%
+20.2%
n=2
May
100%
+21.5%
n=2
Jun
50%
+14.6%
n=2
Jul
67%
−11.0%
n=3
Aug
33%
+1.1%
n=3
Sep
33%
+24.2%
n=3
Oct
50%
+27.0%
n=2
Nov
100%
+24.5%
n=2
Dec
50%
−10.2%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 7,900 @ $85.01 | $672K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 253,083 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $85.02 | $425K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 397,271 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Partridge Andrew John | officer | Sale | 1,491 @ $61.08 | $91K | −0.9% of holding | +4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 163,738 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 123,502 @ $49.92 | $6.2M | −19.2% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 518,582 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 61,665 @ $49.92 | $3.1M | −14.2% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 371,216 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 45,806 @ $49.92 | $2.3M | −14.9% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 260,669 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 7,203 @ $47.93 | $345K | −1.1% of holding | +2.0% | +45.2% | 642,342 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 2,836 @ $47.93 | $136K | −0.7% of holding | +2.0% | +45.2% | 432,982 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 2,407 @ $47.93 | $115K | −0.8% of holding | +2.0% | +45.2% | 306,560 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 258 @ $46.73 | $12K | −0.0% of holding | +2.0% | +45.2% | 642,084 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 101 @ $46.74 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | +2.0% | +45.2% | 432,881 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 85 @ $46.74 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +2.0% | +45.2% | 306,475 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-05 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 980 @ $53.01 | $52K | −0.2% of holding | +2.9% | +41.6% | 649,545 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 690 @ $53.01 | $37K | −0.2% of holding | +2.9% | +41.6% | 435,818 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 655 @ $53.01 | $35K | −0.2% of holding | +2.9% | +41.6% | 308,967 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 35,787 @ $50.09 | $1.8M | −5.2% of holding | +3.2% | +38.5% | 652,242 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 16,223 @ $50.09 | $813K | −3.6% of holding | +3.2% | +38.5% | 436,508 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 9,135 @ $50.09 | $458K | −2.9% of holding | +3.2% | +38.5% | 310,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 1,717 @ $51.84 | $89K | −0.3% of holding | +3.2% | +38.5% | 650,525 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 779 @ $51.75 | $40K | −0.2% of holding | +3.2% | +38.5% | 452,731 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 438 @ $51.86 | $23K | −0.1% of holding | +3.2% | +38.5% | 309,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $99.15 | $2.5M | −8.8% of holding | −6.2% | −49.2% | 259,077 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 15,356 @ $95.28 | $1.5M | −2.2% of holding | −6.2% | −49.2% | 697,866 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 14,807 @ $94.43 | $1.4M | −2.0% of holding | −6.2% | −49.2% | 713,222 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 13,000 @ $100.00 | $1.3M | −3.4% of holding | −6.2% | −49.2% | 368,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 8,233 @ $96.22 | $792K | −1.2% of holding | −6.2% | −49.2% | 689,633 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 1,604 @ $97.28 | $156K | −0.2% of holding | −6.2% | −49.2% | 688,029 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | ILLUMINA, INC. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $79.85 | $79.8M | −22.2% of holding | +0.2% | −34.2% | 3,502,126 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 1,697 @ $79.20 | $134K | −0.6% of holding | +0.2% | −34.2% | 284,077 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 6,114 @ $82.01 | $501K | −1.6% of holding | −9.6% | −48.6% | 381,818 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-15 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 8,865 @ $76.03 | $674K | −2.2% of holding | +9.1% | −38.9% | 387,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 7,239 @ $68.88 | $499K | −1.0% of holding | +9.1% | −38.9% | 727,388 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 81,385 @ $62.50 | $5.1M | −17.0% of holding | +30.2% | −18.9% | 396,797 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 9,692 @ $64.00 | $620K | −2.0% of holding | +40.1% | −19.1% | 478,182 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 4,202 @ $32.02 | $135K | −0.9% of holding | +22.5% | +215.5% | 487,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 877 @ $32.02 | $28K | −0.3% of holding | +22.5% | +215.5% | 285,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $38.93 | $311K | −2.7% of holding | −15.5% | +152.5% | 286,020 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | DING CHUN R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 260,832 @ $49.58 | $12.9M | −7.3% of holding | −32.8% | +61.4% | 3,332,898 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | DING CHUN R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 51,125 @ $48.88 | $2.5M | −1.4% of holding | −32.8% | +61.4% | 3,593,730 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | DING CHUN R | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 27,843 @ $50.25 | $1.4M | −0.8% of holding | −32.8% | +61.4% | 3,305,055 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 9,692 @ $52.00 | $504K | −1.9% of holding | −37.0% | +58.9% | 492,076 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 9,692 @ $42.30 | $410K | −1.9% of holding | −11.4% | +112.0% | 501,768 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 94,035 @ $33.93 | $3.2M | −11.3% of holding | +2.6% | +135.9% | 734,627 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 48,213 @ $33.93 | $1.6M | −8.6% of holding | +2.6% | +135.9% | 511,460 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 41,150 @ $33.93 | $1.4M | −12.3% of holding | +2.6% | +135.9% | 294,020 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 7,625 @ $31.21 | $238K | −0.9% of holding | −14.9% | +2.9% | 828,662 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 2,109 @ $31.20 | $66K | −0.4% of holding | −14.9% | +2.9% | 559,673 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 1,816 @ $31.20 | $57K | −0.5% of holding | −14.9% | +2.9% | 335,170 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Sale | 994 @ $41.51 | $41K | −0.1% of holding | −27.4% | −24.3% | 836,287 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Sale | 525 @ $41.51 | $22K | −0.1% of holding | −27.4% | −24.3% | 561,782 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Sale | 521 @ $41.51 | $22K | −0.2% of holding | −27.4% | −24.3% | 336,986 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
36 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Award / grant | 427 | 45,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | CHASE WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 276 | 42,978 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | MIZELL STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 268 | 42,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Krevans Sarah | director | Award / grant | 5,491 | 42,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | CHASE WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 5,491 | 42,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Award / grant | 5,491 | 45,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | MIZELL STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 5,491 | 42,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Award / grant | 3,154 | 402,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Award / grant | 27,901 | 399,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Award / grant | 631 | 39,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | CHASE WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 408 | 37,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | MIZELL STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 396 | 37,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Award / grant | 84,540 | 453,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 60,118 | 319,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Award / grant | 329 | 39,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | CHASE WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 213 | 36,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | MIZELL STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 206 | 36,675 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Award / grant | 425 | 38,794 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | CHASE WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 275 | 36,590 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-15 | MIZELL STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 267 | 36,469 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-15 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Award / grant | 825 | 38,369 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-15 | CHASE WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 533 | 36,315 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-15 | MIZELL STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 517 | 36,202 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Award / grant | 6,082 | 37,544 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | MIZELL STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 6,082 | 35,685 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Krevans Sarah | director | Award / grant | 6,082 | 37,137 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | CHASE WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 6,082 | 35,782 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-15 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Award / grant | 1,212 | 31,462 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-15 | CHASE WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 784 | 29,700 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-15 | MIZELL STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 760 | 29,603 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | RAGUSA ROBERT P | director | Award / grant | 224,620 | 837,281 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Ofman Joshua J. | director | Award / grant | 110,770 | 562,307 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Freidin Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 69,230 | 337,507 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-15 | SUMME GREGORY L | director | Award / grant | 1,828 | 30,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-15 | CHASE WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 1,182 | 28,916 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-15 | MIZELL STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 1,147 | 28,843 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.