GPREGreen Plains Inc.Basic Materials · Chemicalsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.06 · now $15.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GPRE has typically landed between $12.00 and $19.23 — a range of −20.3% to +27.7% from the issuance price $15.06.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GPRE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$12worst · -20.3%$19.23best · +27.7%
  • now $15.06 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.7 (-2.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.15–$16.25
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12–$19.23
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−69.2%−69.2%+6.1%
2020-02-21−67.5%−70.3%+0.0%
2020-02-19−67.0%−70.5%+1.6%
3 best
2009-05-01+203.8%−6.1%+203.8%
2009-05-07+201.5%−2.0%+217.2%
2009-05-06+183.8%−10.4%+190.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+0.0%
n=20
Feb
60%
+2.3%
n=20
Mar
50%
+4.7%
n=20
Apr
60%
+1.2%
n=20
May
45%
+4.0%
n=20
Jun
40%
−0.2%
n=20
Jul
70%
+7.0%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.5%
n=20
Sep
35%
−1.9%
n=20
Oct
45%
+2.9%
n=20
Nov
55%
+3.8%
n=20
Dec
40%
−3.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$19$82026-03-06: 1 insider purchase, $101K — Sweeney Patrick Francis2025-09-22: 1 insider sale, $294K — MAPES MICHELLE2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $294K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $101K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Sweeney Patrick Francis — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer MAPES MICHELLE — Sale on 2025-09-22, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-06Sweeney Patrick FrancisdirectorPurchase6,383 @ $15.87$101K+17.6% of holding+0.9%−17.6%42,719Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-22MAPES MICHELLEofficerSale30,954 @ $9.51$294K−33.8% of holding+11.2%+75.5%60,558Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

86 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19Osowski ChrisdirectorWithheld for tax11,989226,401Form 4
2026-08-19Collins Trent LeeofficerWithheld for tax2,26144,496Form 4
2026-06-05Aslam FarhadirectorAward / grant9,01954,190Form 4
2026-06-05Furcich Steven JdirectorAward / grant9,01945,355Form 4
2026-06-05GRASSI CARL J.directorAward / grant9,01945,355Form 4
2026-06-05Peterson BriandirectorAward / grant9,01980,339Form 4
2026-06-05Salinas MartindirectorAward / grant9,01969,020Form 4
2026-06-05Sweeney Patrick FrancisdirectorAward / grant9,01915,402Form 4
2026-06-05Wagner KimberlydirectorAward / grant9,01961,131Form 4
2026-06-05Anderson James DdirectorAward / grant9,019132,150Form 4
2026-05-15Havasi ImreofficerWithheld for tax46171,000Form 4
2026-04-29Collins Trent LeeofficerWithheld for tax65746,757Form 4
2026-03-13Osowski ChrisdirectorWithheld for tax1,999238,390Form 4
2026-03-13Herbert James F IIofficerWithheld for tax1,84586,696Form 4
2026-03-13Havasi ImreofficerWithheld for tax1,07671,461Form 4
2026-03-10Herbert James F IIofficerWithheld for tax6,91288,541Form 4
2026-03-10Osowski ChrisdirectorWithheld for tax6,912240,389Form 4
2026-03-10Havasi ImreofficerWithheld for tax5,76072,537Form 4
2026-03-09Herbert James F IIofficerWithheld for tax1,23795,453Form 4
2026-03-09Osowski ChrisdirectorWithheld for tax1,237247,301Form 4
2026-02-27Osowski ChrisdirectorAward / grant85,845248,538Form 4
2026-02-27Havasi ImreofficerAward / grant21,02478,297Form 4
2026-02-27Herbert James F IIofficerAward / grant21,02496,690Form 4
2026-02-27Reis AnnofficerAward / grant21,02441,558Form 4
2026-02-27Collins Trent LeeofficerAward / grant21,02447,414Form 4
2026-02-27Loneman Ryan PofficerAward / grant17,52034,882Form 4
2026-01-09Collins Trent LeeofficerWithheld for tax1,28826,390Form 4
2026-01-07MAPES MICHELLEofficerWithheld for tax34,90633,337Form 4
2026-01-07MAPES MICHELLEofficerAward / grant33,90467,241Form 4
2026-01-05Boggs Philip BofficerAward / grant24,34780,892Form 4
2026-01-05Boggs Philip BofficerWithheld for tax23,81656,545Form 4
2025-12-18Havasi ImreofficerAward / grant7,68557,273Form 4
2025-12-18MAPES MICHELLEofficerAward / grant7,68568,243Form 4
2025-12-18Osowski ChrisdirectorAward / grant7,685162,693Form 4
2025-12-18Herbert James F IIofficerAward / grant7,68575,666Form 4
2025-11-11Boggs Philip BofficerWithheld for tax3,26980,361Form 4
2025-10-10Herbert James F IIofficerWithheld for tax64567,981Form 4
2025-08-27Simpkins G Patrich JrofficerAward / grant38,954280,227Form 4
2025-08-27Simpkins G Patrich JrofficerWithheld for tax26,359241,273Form 4
2025-08-19Osowski ChrisdirectorAward / grant83,933155,008Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.