GPNGlobal Payments Inc.Industrials · Specialty Business Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $86.49 · now $86.49 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GPN has typically landed between $73.26 and $99.39 — a range of −15.3% to +14.9% from the issuance price $86.49.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($86.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GPN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $86.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$73.26worst · -15.3%$99.39best · +14.9%
  • now $86.49 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $85.5 (-1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $79.61–$91.38
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $73.26–$99.39
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−43.1%−43.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−42.9%−42.9%+0.0%
2020-02-19−36.9%−36.9%+0.7%
3 best
2020-04-03+32.2%+0.0%+34.5%
2016-03-18+29.1%+0.0%+29.6%
2016-03-15+28.8%+0.0%+29.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$20.1B
market cap
$-2.95
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$7.7B
'20'25
Net income$1.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr18.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr6.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.96
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $86.49$69.58$162.73
  • DCF (intrinsic)$156.31
  • Analyst target · range $76.00–$111.00$82.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$86.49

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
78%
+2.8%
n=18
Feb
58%
+1.2%
n=19
Mar
63%
−0.5%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.4%
n=19
May
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Jun
37%
−2.0%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.8%
n=19
Aug
63%
+2.7%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.7%
n=19
Oct
56%
+1.4%
n=18
Nov
56%
+1.8%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$95$622026-02-20: 1 insider purchase, $99K — JOHNSON JOIA M2025-12-11: 1 insider purchase, $846K — BALDWIN ROBERT H B JR2025-12-11: 1 insider sale, $164K — SHEFFIELD DAVID M2025-12-10: 1 insider purchase, $241K — BALDWIN ROBERT H B JR2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $928K — Green David Lawrence2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $347K — MCDANIEL CONNIE D2025-11-07: 1 insider purchase, $100K — Watson Patricia A2025-08-21: 1 insider sale, $342K — Cortopassi Robert M2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $208K — SHEFFIELD DAVID M2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $722K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $100K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $347K2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $1.1M2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $99K↑ buys↓ salesdirector JOHNSON JOIA M — Purchase on 2026-02-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector BALDWIN ROBERT H B JR — Purchase on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer SHEFFIELD DAVID M — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BALDWIN ROBERT H B JR — Purchase on 2025-12-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Green David Lawrence — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MCDANIEL CONNIE D — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Watson Patricia A — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Cortopassi Robert M — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer SHEFFIELD DAVID M — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-20JOHNSON JOIA MdirectorPurchase1,213 @ $81.90$99K+38.2% of holding−8.9%+2.5%4,386Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11BALDWIN ROBERT H B JRdirectorPurchase10,392 @ $81.42$846K+21.2% of holding−6.1%−26.9%59,303Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11SHEFFIELD DAVID MofficerSale2,016 @ $81.41$164K−12.3% of holding−6.1%−26.9%14,438Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-10BALDWIN ROBERT H B JRdirectorPurchase3,000 @ $80.25$241K+6.5% of holding−1.9%−23.4%48,911Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03Green David LawrenceofficerSale11,600 @ $79.99$928K−14.6% of holding−4.2%−25.0%68,096Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-12MCDANIEL CONNIE DdirectorSale4,464 @ $77.81$347K−12.9% of holding+6.6%−20.9%30,014Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07Watson Patricia AdirectorPurchase1,331 @ $75.06$100K+100.8% of holding+0.1%−19.8%2,651Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-21Cortopassi Robert MofficerSale4,000 @ $85.52$342K−7.5% of holding−3.5%−14.7%49,121Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12SHEFFIELD DAVID MofficerSale2,500 @ $83.03$208K−13.2% of holding+2.9%−20.1%16,454Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-07Steele-Belkin Dara L.officerSale2,000 @ $86.00$172K−6.1% of holding+4.0%−20.5%30,713Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-08SHEFFIELD DAVID MofficerSale2,500 @ $80.79$202K−11.0% of holding−6.9%−22.7%20,150Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-13BALDWIN ROBERT H B JRdirectorPurchase5,800 @ $116.00$673K+15.7% of holding−2.7%−32.4%42,738Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

122 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-08Cortopassi Robert MofficerWithheld for tax82587,026Form 4
2026-08-04Cortopassi Robert MofficerWithheld for tax2,95587,851Form 4
2026-07-29Bready Cameron MdirectorWithheld for tax8,871432,790Form 4
2026-07-29Bready Cameron MdirectorOption exercise9,703441,661Form 4
2026-07-29Bready Cameron MdirectorOption exercise9,7030Form 4
2026-06-01Bready Cameron MdirectorWithheld for tax2,297431,958Form 4
2026-06-01Steele-Belkin Dara L.officerWithheld for tax2,25446,527Form 4
2026-05-01Kliphouse Kirsten MariedirectorAward / grant3,1799,076Form 4
2026-05-01Sankaran VivekdirectorAward / grant3,1793,418Form 4
2026-05-01Arroyo F. ThaddeusdirectorAward / grant3,17916,272Form 4
2026-05-01Deskus ArchanadirectorAward / grant3,1794,499Form 4
2026-05-01BRUNO JOHN GdirectorAward / grant3,17921,849Form 4
2026-05-01JOHNSON JOIA MdirectorAward / grant3,1796,352Form 4
2026-05-01MCDANIEL CONNIE DdirectorAward / grant3,17933,193Form 4
2026-05-01WOODS M TROYdirectorAward / grant3,93985,795Form 4
2026-05-01Watson Patricia AdirectorAward / grant3,1795,830Form 4
2026-05-01PLUMMER WILLIAM BdirectorAward / grant3,17918,685Form 4
2026-05-01Osnoss JosephdirectorAward / grant3,17910,902Form 4
2026-03-15Whyte Jennifer BozemanofficerWithheld for tax428,873Form 4
2026-03-01Bready Cameron MdirectorWithheld for tax3,924434,255Form 4
2026-03-01Whipple Joshua JofficerWithheld for tax1,313107,262Form 4
2026-03-01Cortopassi Robert MofficerWithheld for tax74590,475Form 4
2026-03-01Steele-Belkin Dara L.officerWithheld for tax20448,781Form 4
2026-03-01Whyte Jennifer BozemanofficerWithheld for tax1338,915Form 4
2026-02-28Bready Cameron MdirectorWithheld for tax9,750438,179Form 4
2026-02-28Whipple Joshua JofficerWithheld for tax3,706108,575Form 4
2026-02-28Cortopassi Robert MofficerWithheld for tax3,64591,220Form 4
2026-02-28Steele-Belkin Dara L.officerWithheld for tax2,09348,985Form 4
2026-02-28SHEFFIELD DAVID MofficerAward / grant1,18816,415Form 4
2026-02-28SHEFFIELD DAVID MofficerWithheld for tax75515,660Form 4
2026-02-27Bready Cameron MdirectorAward / grant119,017444,131Form 4
2026-02-27Cortopassi Robert MofficerAward / grant40,21893,113Form 4
2026-02-27Whipple Joshua JofficerAward / grant37,929110,653Form 4
2026-02-27Steele-Belkin Dara L.officerAward / grant19,61950,015Form 4
2026-02-27Viviani Stella NicholeofficerAward / grant19,61919,619Form 4
2026-02-27Bready Cameron MdirectorAward / grant3,798447,929Form 4
2026-02-27Cortopassi Robert MofficerAward / grant1,75294,865Form 4
2026-02-27Whipple Joshua JofficerAward / grant1,628112,281Form 4
2026-02-27Steele-Belkin Dara L.officerAward / grant1,06351,078Form 4
2026-02-21Bready Cameron MdirectorAward / grant36,534359,663Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-05-082026-04-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-01-122025-12-10$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.