GPMT · TickerCove

GPMTGranite Point Mortgage Trust Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.00 · now $0.86 (2026-09-16, −14.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GPMT has typically landed between $0.79 and $1.17 — a range of −20.6% to +17.3% from the issuance price $1.00.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,298 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-06-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$0.8601 · 0% of range

$0.8601 low$2.78 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.9%

typical move · IQR 15.8%

−20.6%worst (p90)+17.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where GPMT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $0.8601 (-14.0%)
typical $0.971 (-2.9%)
middle 50% $0.8919–$1.05
90% range $0.7938–$1.17

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,298 windows spanning 2017-06-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-25	−87.3%	−87.3%	+0.3%
2020-02-24	−86.2%	−86.2%	+0.0%
2020-03-04	−83.6%	−86.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07	+112.0%	−3.4%	+112.0%
2020-03-25	+91.4%	+0.0%	+203.4%
2020-05-08	+79.0%	−3.4%	+112.0%

2,298 overlapping windows · 2017-06-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

44%

+1.3%

n=9

Feb

22%

−4.7%

n=9

Mar

44%

−10.8%

n=9

Apr

44%

−3.8%

n=9

May

56%

+3.8%

n=9

Jun

67%

+6.1%

n=9

Jul

60%

+2.1%

n=10

Aug

30%

−4.9%

n=10

Sep

50%

−2.2%

n=10

Oct

33%

−0.7%

n=9

Nov

56%

+6.9%

n=9

Dec

44%

−2.5%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-08	KASNET STEPHEN G	director	Sale	26,772 @ $1.48	$40K	−13.0% of holding	−7.5%	not yet — horizon still open	178,723	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08	DEHNE TANUJA M	director	Sale	10,827 @ $1.48	$16K	−9.0% of holding	−7.5%	not yet — horizon still open	109,632	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	KASNET STEPHEN G	director	Sale	45,000 @ $2.69	$121K	−24.5% of holding	−4.1%	−56.6%	138,566	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-11	Nikolic Lazar	director	Purchase	8,736 @ $19.39	$169K	ownership Δ n/a	−0.9%	−57.6%	8,736	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11	Nikolic Lazar	director	Purchase	3,500 @ $19.30	$68K	+350.0% of holding	−0.9%	−57.6%	4,500	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-10	Nikolic Lazar	director	Purchase	4,000 @ $19.31	$77K	+95.4% of holding	+0.7%	−56.9%	8,193	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10	Woodhouse Hope B	director	Sale	14,674 @ $2.70	$40K	−13.5% of holding	+0.7%	−56.9%	94,423	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-21	Woodhouse Hope B	director	Sale	5,000 @ $2.72	$14K	−4.4% of holding	+6.9%	−43.1%	109,097	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-15	Halter Patrick Gregory	director	Purchase	17,000 @ $2.83	$48K	+22.0% of holding	+4.7%	−41.6%	94,363	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13	Nikolic Lazar	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $19.61	$59K	+251.5% of holding	+2.3%	−33.5%	4,193	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09	KASNET STEPHEN G	director	Sale	41,666 @ $2.55	$106K	−18.5% of holding	−2.0%	−2.2%	183,566	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09	DEHNE TANUJA M	director	Sale	8,814 @ $2.55	$22K	−10.3% of holding	−2.0%	−2.2%	77,152	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-22	TAYLOR JOHN A	director	Purchase	42,000 @ $2.28	$96K	+9.8% of holding	+9.1%	+0.9%	471,443	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-22	Nikolic Lazar	director	Purchase	7,200 @ $2.28	$16K	+1.1% of holding	+9.1%	+0.9%	655,794	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-21	Nikolic Lazar	director	Purchase	47,408 @ $2.36	$112K	+7.9% of holding	+8.9%	+5.2%	648,594	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-21	Nikolic Lazar	director	Purchase	424 @ $18.40	$8K	+55.1% of holding	+8.9%	+5.2%	1,193	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-20	Nikolic Lazar	director	Purchase	921 @ $2.39	$2K	+0.2% of holding	+0.4%	+5.1%	601,186	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-15	Halter Patrick Gregory	director	Purchase	29,000 @ $2.38	$69K	+85.3% of holding	−4.4%	+2.5%	63,001	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04	Nikolic Lazar	director	Purchase	500 @ $17.76	$9K	+185.9% of holding	−7.5%	−5.3%	769	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-27	Nikolic Lazar	director	Purchase	269 @ $17.72	$5K	ownership Δ n/a	−3.8%	−7.5%	269	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-26	Nikolic Lazar	director	Purchase	1,126 @ $17.71	$20K	+3.5% of holding	−1.0%	−8.2%	33,028	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25	Halter Patrick Gregory	director	Purchase	34,001 @ $2.80	$95K	ownership Δ n/a	+3.2%	−5.0%	34,001	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

237 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-05	Woodhouse Hope B	director	Option exercise	43,799	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	McGrath Sheila K.	director	Option exercise	42,814	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	KASNET STEPHEN G	director	Option exercise	66,929	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	Halter Patrick Gregory	director	Option exercise	40,846	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	Nikolic Lazar	director	Option exercise	40,846	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	DEHNE TANUJA M	director	Option exercise	43,307	0	Form 4
2026-06-05	Halter Patrick Gregory	director	Option exercise	40,846	135,209	Form 4
2026-06-05	DEHNE TANUJA M	director	Option exercise	43,307	120,459	Form 4
2026-06-05	KASNET STEPHEN G	director	Option exercise	66,929	205,495	Form 4
2026-06-05	Woodhouse Hope B	director	Option exercise	43,799	138,222	Form 4
2026-06-05	DEHNE TANUJA M	director	Option exercise	43,307	120,459	Form 4
2026-06-05	Halter Patrick Gregory	director	Option exercise	40,846	135,209	Form 4
2026-06-05	Nikolic Lazar	director	Option exercise	40,846	93,648	Form 4
2026-06-05	McGrath Sheila K.	director	Option exercise	42,814	107,416	Form 4
2026-06-05	KASNET STEPHEN G	director	Option exercise	66,929	205,495	Form 4
2026-06-05	McGrath Sheila K.	director	Option exercise	42,814	107,416	Form 4
2026-06-05	Nikolic Lazar	director	Option exercise	40,846	93,648	Form 4
2026-06-05	Woodhouse Hope B	director	Option exercise	43,799	138,222	Form 4
2026-06-04	DEHNE TANUJA M	director	Award / grant	38,961	38,961	Form 4
2026-06-04	McGrath Sheila K.	director	Award / grant	38,149	38,149	Form 4
2026-06-04	Halter Patrick Gregory	director	Award / grant	34,902	34,902	Form 4
2026-06-04	Nikolic Lazar	director	Award / grant	34,902	34,902	Form 4
2026-06-04	KASNET STEPHEN G	director	Award / grant	58,441	58,441	Form 4
2026-06-04	Woodhouse Hope B	director	Award / grant	39,772	39,772	Form 4
2026-03-15	TAYLOR JOHN A	director	Withheld for tax	41,131	651,736	Form 4
2026-03-15	ALPART STEPHEN	officer	Withheld for tax	20,258	324,375	Form 4
2026-03-15	Morral Peter M.	officer	Withheld for tax	20,258	131,423	Form 4
2026-03-15	Karber Michael J.	officer	Withheld for tax	9,452	123,371	Form 4
2026-03-15	Lebowitz Ethan	officer	Withheld for tax	9,083	31,298	Form 4
2026-03-15	Karber Michael J.	officer	Option exercise	19,213	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	TAYLOR JOHN A	director	Option exercise	74,405	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	Morral Peter M.	officer	Option exercise	39,683	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	ALPART STEPHEN	officer	Option exercise	39,683	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	Lebowitz Ethan	officer	Option exercise	18,519	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	Karber Michael J.	officer	Option exercise	19,213	132,823	Form 4
2026-03-15	Lebowitz Ethan	officer	Option exercise	18,519	40,381	Form 4
2026-03-15	Morral Peter M.	officer	Option exercise	39,683	151,681	Form 4
2026-03-15	ALPART STEPHEN	officer	Option exercise	39,683	344,633	Form 4
2026-03-15	Karber Michael J.	officer	Option exercise	19,213	132,823	Form 4
2026-03-15	TAYLOR JOHN A	director	Option exercise	74,405	692,867	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i