GPKGraphic Packaging Holding CompanyConsumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.66 · now $9.66 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GPK has typically landed between $8.44 and $10.72 — a range of −12.6% to +11.0% from the issuance price $9.66.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GPK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$8.44worst · -12.6%$10.72best · +11.0%
  • now $9.66 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.66 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.22–$10.1
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.44–$10.72
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-10−57.4%−57.4%+6.0%
2008-09-25−50.5%−51.6%+0.0%
2008-09-24−50.2%−55.7%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-30+117.9%−6.8%+117.9%
2009-04-08+113.2%+0.0%+120.4%
2009-04-07+112.5%+0.0%+133.9%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+1.0%
n=20
Feb
65%
+1.0%
n=20
Mar
55%
+1.1%
n=20
Apr
60%
+5.6%
n=20
May
55%
+0.7%
n=20
Jun
40%
−2.0%
n=20
Jul
80%
+4.7%
n=20
Aug
40%
−0.0%
n=20
Sep
40%
−2.6%
n=20
Oct
50%
+0.5%
n=20
Nov
70%
+2.8%
n=20
Dec
45%
−0.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$22$92026-05-20: 1 insider purchase, $0 — Stafeil Jeffrey2026-05-08: 1 insider purchase, $154K — HAGEMANN ROBERT2026-05-07: 1 insider purchase, $200K — Stafeil Jeffrey2026-03-04: 5 insider purchases, $700K — Rietbroek Robbert, Venturelli Larry M …2025-08-25: 1 insider sale, $682K — Yost Joseph P2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $2.1M2026-03: 5 open-market purchases, $700K2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $354K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Stafeil Jeffrey — Purchase on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HAGEMANN ROBERT — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Stafeil Jeffrey — Purchase on 2026-05-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Rietbroek Robbert — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed same daydirector Venturelli Larry M — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Venturelli Larry M — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Venturelli Larry M — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Venturelli Larry M — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Yost Joseph P — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-20Stafeil JeffreydirectorPurchase16,261 @ $0.00$0+91.0% of holding+3.2%not yet — horizon still open34,139Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08HAGEMANN ROBERTdirectorPurchase14,000 @ $11.00$154K+16.8% of holding+1.6%not yet — horizon still open97,569Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-07Stafeil JeffreydirectorPurchase17,878 @ $11.19$200Kownership Δ n/a−5.7%not yet — horizon still open17,878Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04Rietbroek RobbertdirectorPurchase44,278 @ $11.32$501Kownership Δ n/a−8.5%−12.0%44,278Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04Venturelli Larry MdirectorPurchase10,935 @ $11.37$124K+10.6% of holding−8.5%−12.0%114,246Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04Venturelli Larry MdirectorPurchase3,896 @ $11.36$44K+3.4% of holding−8.5%−12.0%118,142Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04Venturelli Larry MdirectorPurchase2,100 @ $11.36$24K+1.8% of holding−8.5%−12.0%120,242Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04Venturelli Larry MdirectorPurchase600 @ $11.36$7K+0.5% of holding−8.5%−12.0%120,842Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25Yost Joseph PofficerSale30,000 @ $22.72$682K−10.5% of holding−17.8%−55.0%255,203Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-04MARTENS PHILIP RdirectorSale7,015 @ $21.80$153K−20.7% of holding−6.8%−52.6%26,811Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-01MARTENS PHILIP RdirectorSale56,737 @ $21.84$1.2M−62.6% of holding−0.7%−42.8%33,826Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

186 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-29Lischer Charles DofficerAward / grant44,13144,131Form 4
2026-07-29Narvekar NikhilofficerAward / grant22,06622,066Form 4
2026-07-29Fallan ScottofficerAward / grant44,13144,131Form 4
2026-07-01Fishbein Daniel S.officerAward / grant40,21440,214Form 4
2026-07-01Fishbein Daniel S.officerAward / grant188,502188,502Form 4
2026-05-20BRLAS LAURIEdirectorAward / grant16,26135,558Form 4
2026-05-20MARTENS PHILIP RdirectorAward / grant16,26143,072Form 4
2026-05-20Maselli AlessandrodirectorAward / grant16,26123,276Form 4
2026-05-20Callahan Andrew PdirectorAward / grant16,26123,276Form 4
2026-05-20Venturelli Larry MdirectorAward / grant16,261130,507Form 4
2026-04-01Fallan ScottofficerWithheld for tax592985Form 4
2026-04-01Fallan ScottofficerOption exercise1,2582,556Form 4
2026-04-01Fallan ScottofficerOption exercise1,2581,577Form 4
2026-02-26Yost Joseph PofficerWithheld for tax2,087279,929Form 4
2026-02-26Farrell Michael JamesofficerWithheld for tax1,465146,726Form 4
2026-02-26Spence ElizabethofficerWithheld for tax1,30459,238Form 4
2026-02-26Lischer Charles DofficerWithheld for tax65480,737Form 4
2026-02-26Fallan ScottofficerWithheld for tax284319Form 4
2026-02-26LeBeau ScottofficerWithheld for tax20922,838Form 4
2026-02-26Narvekar NikhilofficerWithheld for tax811,845Form 4
2026-02-26Farrell Michael JamesofficerOption exercise4,0578,238Form 4
2026-02-26Spence ElizabethofficerOption exercise3,62760,542Form 4
2026-02-26Spence ElizabethofficerOption exercise3,6277,366Form 4
2026-02-26Yost Joseph PofficerOption exercise5,421282,016Form 4
2026-02-26Narvekar NikhilofficerOption exercise402818Form 4
2026-02-26Yost Joseph PofficerOption exercise5,42111,007Form 4
2026-02-26LeBeau ScottofficerOption exercise80523,047Form 4
2026-02-26LeBeau ScottofficerOption exercise8051,635Form 4
2026-02-26Farrell Michael JamesofficerOption exercise4,057148,191Form 4
2026-02-26Fallan ScottofficerOption exercise603603Form 4
2026-02-26Fallan ScottofficerOption exercise6031,227Form 4
2026-02-26Lischer Charles DofficerOption exercise6544,497Form 4
2026-02-26Lischer Charles DofficerOption exercise2,21481,391Form 4
2026-02-26Narvekar NikhilofficerOption exercise4021,926Form 4
2026-02-25Lischer Charles DofficerAward / grant12,00612,006Form 4
2026-02-25Rietbroek RobbertdirectorAward / grant165,030165,030Form 4
2026-02-25Farrell Michael JamesofficerAward / grant12,00612,006Form 4
2026-02-25Spence ElizabethofficerAward / grant19,66819,668Form 4
2026-02-25LeBeau ScottofficerAward / grant17,19117,191Form 4
2026-02-25Yost Joseph PofficerAward / grant33,39933,399Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.