Issued 2026-09-16 at $262.22 · now $262.22 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GPI has typically landed between $225.78 and $303.93 — a range of −13.9% to +15.9% from the issuance price $262.22.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($262.22) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GPI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $262.22 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $262.22 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $264.78 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $248.02–$281.55
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $225.78–$303.93
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-24 | −74.3% | −74.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −73.8% | −73.8% | +0.5% |
| 2008-09-25 | −73.5% | −73.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +94.5% | −5.9% | +94.5% |
| 2009-03-06 | +85.6% | −2.4% | +101.8% |
| 2009-03-04 | +77.4% | −12.8% | +77.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
−0.8%
n=20
Feb
55%
−0.9%
n=20
Mar
60%
−0.5%
n=20
Apr
80%
+7.4%
n=20
May
50%
−0.5%
n=20
Jun
50%
−1.2%
n=20
Jul
70%
+7.9%
n=20
Aug
55%
−0.4%
n=20
Sep
55%
+1.1%
n=20
Oct
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Nov
70%
+4.6%
n=20
Dec
60%
+0.6%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 18,196 @ $281.29 | $5.1M | +1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,444,072 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,883 @ $280.48 | $3.1M | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,425,876 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $279.38 | $1.4M | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,414,993 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,146 @ $282.11 | $605K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,446,218 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 222 @ $282.99 | $63K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,446,440 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200 @ $284.33 | $57K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,446,640 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 23,449 @ $282.21 | $6.6M | +1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,397,698 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,117 @ $283.89 | $2.9M | +0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,407,815 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,059 @ $281.68 | $2.3M | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,374,249 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,550 @ $280.06 | $994K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,366,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,018 @ $286.33 | $291K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,409,993 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 739 @ $285.54 | $211K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,408,975 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 421 @ $284.60 | $120K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,408,236 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 19,286 @ $302.46 | $5.8M | +1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,359,095 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 9,865 @ $300.72 | $3.0M | +0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,334,401 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,611 @ $297.52 | $2.0M | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,322,317 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,408 @ $302.12 | $1.6M | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,339,809 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,668 @ $296.49 | $1.1M | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,315,706 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,421 @ $295.54 | $1.0M | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,312,038 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,333 @ $305.09 | $712K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,361,920 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,140 @ $299.81 | $642K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,324,536 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,041 @ $292.50 | $304K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,308,457 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 720 @ $305.74 | $220K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,362,640 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 492 @ $304.27 | $150K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,359,587 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 458 @ $289.34 | $133K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,306,586 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 439 @ $290.27 | $127K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,307,025 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 440 @ $286.75 | $126K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,306,088 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 391 @ $291.39 | $114K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,307,416 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 167 @ $284.83 | $48K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,305,648 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 160 @ $293.14 | $47K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,308,617 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 79 @ $298.22 | $24K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,322,396 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 40 @ $287.09 | $11K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,306,128 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 39,075 @ $282.60 | $11.0M | +3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,279,911 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 16,403 @ $284.44 | $4.7M | +1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,305,281 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 9,269 @ $280.81 | $2.6M | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,233,517 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,967 @ $283.10 | $2.5M | +0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,288,878 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,319 @ $281.49 | $2.1M | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,240,836 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,132 @ $278.18 | $315K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,223,492 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 756 @ $279.34 | $211K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,224,248 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200 @ $285.14 | $57K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,305,481 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 12,976 @ $276.77 | $3.6M | +1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,222,160 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,610 @ $275.77 | $1.8M | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,209,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 6,055 @ $274.95 | $1.7M | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,202,574 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 720 @ $273.66 | $197K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,196,519 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 200 @ $277.52 | $56K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,222,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Conifer Management, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,539 @ $269.66 | $954K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,195,799 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Pereira Lincoln | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $469.34 | $3.3M | −7.8% of holding | −9.4% | −36.1% | 82,967 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | MIZELL STEVEN | director | Sale | 525 @ $417.98 | $219K | −98.5% of holding | +12.1% | −15.2% | 8 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Sale | 1,509 @ $443.13 | $669K | −9.5% of holding | +4.8% | −19.9% | 14,390 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-11 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Sale | 558 @ $443.98 | $248K | −3.9% of holding | +4.8% | −19.9% | 13,832 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-11 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Sale | 453 @ $440.99 | $200K | −2.7% of holding | +4.8% | −19.9% | 16,221 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-11 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Sale | 322 @ $442.06 | $142K | −2.0% of holding | +4.8% | −19.9% | 15,889 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-11 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Sale | 158 @ $445.94 | $70K | −1.1% of holding | +4.8% | −19.9% | 13,674 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-10 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Sale | 2,423 @ $441.38 | $1.1M | −12.3% of holding | +4.1% | −20.9% | 17,251 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Sale | 577 @ $443.09 | $256K | −3.3% of holding | +4.1% | −20.9% | 16,674 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-28 | JONES MICHAEL DAVID | officer | Sale | 1,613 @ $405.57 | $654K | −16.3% of holding | −1.7% | −21.7% | 8,260 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Pereira Lincoln | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $426.68 | $2.6M | −5.7% of holding | +6.0% | +5.7% | 98,467 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
85 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | DeLongchamps Peter C | officer | Gift | 854 | 28,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | McDuffie Melkeya | director | Withheld for tax | 24 | 1,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kimbell David C | director | Award / grant | 336 | 336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Award / grant | 809 | 18,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Kenningham Daryl | director | Gift | 12,312 | 32,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Kenningham Daryl | director | Gift | 12,312 | 34,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Kenningham Daryl | director | Withheld for tax | 804 | 44,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Withheld for tax | 201 | 17,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Kenningham Daryl | director | Withheld for tax | 563 | 45,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Withheld for tax | 169 | 17,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Kenningham Daryl | director | Withheld for tax | 1,018 | 45,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Withheld for tax | 153 | 17,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Hobson Gillian A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 126 | 9,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Kenningham Daryl | director | Withheld for tax | 2,125 | 46,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Withheld for tax | 232 | 17,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Hobson Gillian A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 144 | 9,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Washburn Shelley | officer | Withheld for tax | 53 | 1,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Withheld for tax | 138 | 18,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Hobson Gillian A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 121 | 9,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Washburn Shelley | officer | Withheld for tax | 42 | 1,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Kenningham Daryl | director | Award / grant | 11,793 | 48,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | DeLongchamps Peter C | officer | Award / grant | 1,485 | 29,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | McDuffie Melkeya | director | Award / grant | 1,114 | 1,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Washburn Shelley | officer | Award / grant | 743 | 1,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Hobson Gillian A. | officer | Award / grant | 2,228 | 9,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Award / grant | 2,673 | 18,281 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | DeLongchamps Peter C | officer | Award / grant | 1,636 | 27,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Hobson Gillian A. | officer | Award / grant | 2,182 | 7,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Award / grant | 2,510 | 15,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Kenningham Daryl | director | Award / grant | 10,914 | 37,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Pereira Lincoln | director | Award / grant | 575 | 3,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Wright MaryAnn | director | Award / grant | 575 | 19,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | BARTH CARIN MARCY | director | Award / grant | 575 | 13,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | MIZELL STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 575 | 583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | QUINN STEPHEN D | director | Award / grant | 575 | 53,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | STANBROOK STEVEN P | director | Award / grant | 575 | 9,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | SZEWS CHARLES L | director | Award / grant | 575 | 16,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Taylor Anne | director | Award / grant | 575 | 11,386 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Kenningham Daryl | director | Withheld for tax | 2,644 | 26,274 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | MCHENRY DANIEL JAMES | officer | Withheld for tax | 474 | 13,098 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.