Issued 2026-09-16 at $130.52 · now $130.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GPC has typically landed between $115.63 and $145.33 — a range of −11.4% to +11.3% from the issuance price $130.52.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($130.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GPC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $130.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $130.52 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $131.27 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $125.09–$137.45
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $115.63–$145.33
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −47.3% | −47.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −43.9% | −43.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −35.9% | −47.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +45.0% | +0.0% | +48.4% |
| 2026-06-02 | +34.9% | −1.2% | +34.9% |
| 2026-06-03 | +32.3% | −0.2% | +36.4% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$121.65
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$5.72
- Analyst target · range $122.00–$165.00$150.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$130.52
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Galla Christopher T | officer | Sale | 2,333 @ $115.00 | $268K | −9.6% of holding | +10.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,969 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | Howe James F. | officer | Sale | 415 @ $104.33 | $43K | −1.6% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Howe James F. | officer | Sale | 1,392 @ $104.09 | $145K | −5.1% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,004 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Howe James F. | officer | Sale | 1,648 @ $128.60 | $212K | −5.7% of holding | +1.8% | −28.1% | 27,396 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Krishna Naveen | officer | Sale | 5,303 @ $138.12 | $732K | −16.9% of holding | −8.1% | −18.9% | 26,112 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | NEEDHAM WENDY B | director | Sale | 4,024 @ $123.28 | $496K | −35.4% of holding | +4.5% | +4.2% | 7,333 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-13 | NEEDHAM WENDY B | director | Sale | 1,608 @ $120.78 | $194K | −12.4% of holding | +0.3% | +0.2% | 11,357 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
178 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | CARRUTHERS COURT D | director | Award / grant | 11,935 | 11,935 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | CARRUTHERS COURT D | director | Award / grant | 29,838 | 41,773 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Hulett Jennifer | officer | Withheld for tax | 302 | 21,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Masse Alain | officer | Withheld for tax | 403 | 24,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMS | director | Award / grant | 263 | 4,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Cox Richard JR | director | Award / grant | 211 | 5,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | STENGEL WILLIAM P II | director | Withheld for tax | 2,216 | 110,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Nappier Herbert | officer | Withheld for tax | 887 | 56,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hardin Paul Russell | director | Withheld for tax | 455 | 6,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cox Richard JR | director | Withheld for tax | 455 | 3,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hyland Donna Westbrook | director | Withheld for tax | 455 | 9,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMS | director | Withheld for tax | 455 | 1,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Masse Alain | officer | Withheld for tax | 273 | 25,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Galla Christopher T | officer | Withheld for tax | 268 | 24,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Howe James F. | officer | Withheld for tax | 173 | 25,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Lafont Jean-Jacques | director | Option exercise | 1,673 | 1,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cox Richard JR | director | Option exercise | 1,673 | 3,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Cox Richard JR | director | Option exercise | 1,673 | 1,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hardin Paul Russell | director | Option exercise | 1,673 | 1,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hyland Donna Westbrook | director | Option exercise | 1,673 | 1,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMS | director | Option exercise | 1,673 | 1,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hyland Donna Westbrook | director | Option exercise | 1,673 | 10,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hardin Paul Russell | director | Option exercise | 1,673 | 6,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | STENGEL WILLIAM P II | director | Withheld for tax | 3,545 | 111,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | STENGEL WILLIAM P II | director | Withheld for tax | 1,798 | 113,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Nappier Herbert | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,156 | 55,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Nappier Herbert | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,142 | 57,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | STENGEL WILLIAM P II | director | Withheld for tax | 952 | 112,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Masse Alain | officer | Withheld for tax | 502 | 25,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hulett Jennifer | officer | Withheld for tax | 418 | 21,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Howe James F. | officer | Withheld for tax | 398 | 32,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Galla Christopher T | officer | Withheld for tax | 349 | 24,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Masse Alain | officer | Withheld for tax | 329 | 25,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Masse Alain | officer | Withheld for tax | 265 | 25,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Galla Christopher T | officer | Withheld for tax | 239 | 24,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Galla Christopher T | officer | Withheld for tax | 127 | 24,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Howe James F. | officer | Withheld for tax | 119 | 33,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Howe James F. | officer | Withheld for tax | 63 | 32,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Galla Christopher T | officer | Award / grant | 3,810 | 24,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | CARRUTHERS COURT D | director | Award / grant | 1,810 | 1,810 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-20 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-02-11 | 2026-01-08 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2025-12-09 | 2025-11-13 | $100–250K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-27 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.