GOOGLAlphabet Inc.Communication Services · Internet Content & Informationas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $343.92 · now $343.92 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, GOOGL has typically landed between $303.15 and $396.60 — a range of −11.9% to +15.3% from the issuance price $343.92.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($343.92) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GOOGL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $343.92 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$303.15worst · -11.9%$396.6best · +15.3%
  • now $343.92 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $349.51 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $329.92–$369.1
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $303.15–$396.6
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−29.6%−29.6%+0.0%
2020-02-13−29.1%−29.1%+0.7%
2020-02-21−28.9%−28.9%+0.0%
3 best
2026-03-31+33.8%+0.0%+33.8%
2011-06-24+31.1%+0.0%+31.1%
2026-04-07+30.3%+0.0%+30.3%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$3.9T
market cap
$19.91
EPS (TTM)
16.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-11-04
next earnings
Revenue$403.0B
'20'25
Net income$132.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$73.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr32.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr31.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.14
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 17 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $343.92$98.22$502.91
  • DCF (intrinsic)$126.13
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.0× · n=17$319.09
  • Analyst target · range $350.00–$475.00$420.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$343.92

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
78%
+3.0%
n=18
Feb
42%
−1.8%
n=19
Mar
53%
−0.1%
n=19
Apr
58%
+4.4%
n=19
May
63%
+2.7%
n=19
Jun
37%
−1.7%
n=19
Jul
79%
+6.6%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.0%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Oct
67%
+4.6%
n=18
Nov
67%
+1.1%
n=18
Dec
72%
+2.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$402$1992026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $28K — ARNOLD FRANCES2026-07-30: 1 insider sale, $27K — ARNOLD FRANCES2026-07-29: 1 insider sale, $150K — Saraci Marsida2026-06-30: 1 insider sale, $39K — ARNOLD FRANCES2026-06-29: 8 insider sales, $3.1M — WALKER JOHN KENT …2026-06-26: 1 insider sale, $153K — Saraci Marsida2026-06-15: 12 insider sales, $387K — Hennessy John L. …2026-05-29: 1 insider sale, $39K — ARNOLD FRANCES2026-05-15: 11 insider sales, $413K — Hennessy John L. …2026-04-30: 1 insider sale, $38K — ARNOLD FRANCES2025-08: 22 open-market sales, $23.2M2025-09: 27 open-market sales, $20.8M2025-10: 26 open-market sales, $17.1M2025-11: 42 open-market sales, $20.1M2025-12: 34 open-market sales, $27.2M2026-01: 34 open-market sales, $21.3M2026-02: 35 open-market sales, $35.6M2026-03: 26 open-market sales, $23.0M2026-04: 14 open-market sales, $565K2026-05: 12 open-market sales, $452K2026-06: 22 open-market sales, $3.7M2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $177K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $28K↑ buys↓ salesdirector ARNOLD FRANCES — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 3 days after the tradedirector ARNOLD FRANCES — Sale on 2026-07-30, filed same dayofficer Saraci Marsida — Sale on 2026-07-29, filed same daydirector ARNOLD FRANCES — Sale on 2026-06-30, filed same dayofficer WALKER JOHN KENT — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer WALKER JOHN KENT — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer WALKER JOHN KENT — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer WALKER JOHN KENT — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer WALKER JOHN KENT — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer WALKER JOHN KENT — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer WALKER JOHN KENT — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer WALKER JOHN KENT — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Saraci Marsida — Sale on 2026-06-26, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector ARNOLD FRANCES — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hennessy John L. — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ARNOLD FRANCES — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorSale82 @ $337.71$28K−0.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open18,995Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-30ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorSale82 @ $333.39$27K−0.4% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open18,914Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-29Saraci MarsidaofficerSale449 @ $333.20$150K−1.6% of holding−4.5%not yet — horizon still open27,386Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-30ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorSale112 @ $351.28$39K−0.6% of holding−6.0%not yet — horizon still open18,833Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-29WALKER JOHN KENTofficerSale2,400 @ $350.49$841K−3.0% of holding−3.2%not yet — horizon still open77,728Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29WALKER JOHN KENTofficerSale2,358 @ $351.21$828K−3.0% of holding−3.2%not yet — horizon still open75,370Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29WALKER JOHN KENTofficerSale1,280 @ $349.42$447K−1.6% of holding−3.2%not yet — horizon still open80,128Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29WALKER JOHN KENTofficerSale920 @ $346.13$318K−1.1% of holding−3.2%not yet — horizon still open82,608Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29WALKER JOHN KENTofficerSale760 @ $345.18$262K−0.9% of holding−3.2%not yet — horizon still open83,528Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29WALKER JOHN KENTofficerSale680 @ $348.28$237K−0.8% of holding−3.2%not yet — horizon still open81,408Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29WALKER JOHN KENTofficerSale520 @ $347.25$181K−0.6% of holding−3.2%not yet — horizon still open82,088Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29WALKER JOHN KENTofficerSale80 @ $351.90$28K−0.1% of holding−3.2%not yet — horizon still open75,290Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-26Saraci MarsidaofficerSale449 @ $341.72$153K−1.6% of holding−2.7%not yet — horizon still open27,348Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Hennessy John L.directorSale177 @ $369.21$65K−7.2% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open2,276Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Hennessy John L.directorSale158 @ $369.66$58K−9.6% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open1,481Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Hennessy John L.directorSale145 @ $369.04$54K−6.8% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open2,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Hennessy John L.directorSale130 @ $368.92$48K−7.3% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open1,639Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Hennessy John L.directorSale119 @ $369.69$44K−5.9% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open1,881Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Hennessy John L.directorSale68 @ $366.34$25K−3.6% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open1,813Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Hennessy John L.directorSale51 @ $366.01$19K−2.3% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open2,180Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Hennessy John L.directorSale45 @ $369.89$17K−2.0% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open2,231Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Hennessy John L.directorSale45 @ $366.22$16K−1.8% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open2,486Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Hennessy John L.directorSale44 @ $367.27$16K−2.4% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open1,769Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Hennessy John L.directorSale35 @ $367.09$13K−1.6% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open2,145Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15Hennessy John L.directorSale33 @ $367.66$12K−1.3% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open2,453Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-29ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorSale102 @ $381.00$39K−0.5% of holding−5.0%not yet — horizon still open18,721Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-15Hennessy John L.directorSale199 @ $392.79$78K−6.8% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open2,732Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Hennessy John L.directorSale171 @ $393.54$67K−5.4% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open2,976Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Hennessy John L.directorSale138 @ $393.79$54K−5.1% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open2,594Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Hennessy John L.directorSale134 @ $392.86$53K−3.9% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open3,320Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Hennessy John L.directorSale134 @ $392.41$53K−4.1% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open3,147Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Hennessy John L.directorSale90 @ $393.75$35K−2.5% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open3,454Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Hennessy John L.directorSale45 @ $394.96$18K−1.5% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open2,931Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Hennessy John L.directorSale39 @ $394.95$15K−1.2% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open3,281Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Hennessy John L.directorSale37 @ $391.89$14K−1.0% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open3,544Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Hennessy John L.directorSale32 @ $391.20$13K−1.2% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open2,562Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Hennessy John L.directorSale31 @ $395.42$12K−1.2% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open2,531Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-30ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorSale102 @ $371.00$38K−0.5% of holding−7.7%not yet — horizon still open18,621Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

262 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2027-01-25O'Toole Amie ThuenerdirectorWithheld for tax6839,517Form 4
2026-09-14WALKER JOHN KENTofficerAward / grant1219,076Form 4
2026-09-14Hennessy John L.directorAward / grant11,289Form 4
2026-09-14Schindler PhilippofficerAward / grant1624,374Form 4
2026-09-14Schindler PhilippofficerAward / grant4774,296Form 4
2026-09-14WALKER JOHN KENTofficerAward / grant3757,869Form 4
2026-09-14Porat RuthdirectorAward / grant1219,076Form 4
2026-09-14Saraci MarsidaofficerAward / grant23,648Form 4
2026-09-14ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorAward / grant1904Form 4
2026-09-14Washington Robin LdirectorAward / grant1903Form 4
2026-09-14DOERR L JOHNdirectorAward / grant1941Form 4
2026-09-14DOERR L JOHNdirectorAward / grant1903Form 4
2026-09-14Washington Robin LdirectorAward / grant0597Form 4
2026-09-14Ferguson Roger W. Jr.directorAward / grant0597Form 4
2026-09-14DOERR L JOHNdirectorAward / grant0597Form 4
2026-09-14Saraci MarsidaofficerAward / grant11,460Form 4
2026-09-14Saraci MarsidaofficerAward / grant0706Form 4
2026-09-14Washington Robin LdirectorAward / grant11,433Form 4
2026-09-14CHAVEZ R. MARTINdirectorAward / grant1941Form 4
2026-09-14Ashkenazi AnatdirectorAward / grant3351,338Form 4
2026-09-14Saraci MarsidaofficerAward / grant11,271Form 4
2026-09-14Ferguson Roger W. Jr.directorAward / grant1941Form 4
2026-09-14ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorAward / grant11,433Form 4
2026-09-14Shriram Kavitark RamdirectorAward / grant11,433Form 4
2026-09-14Pichai SundardirectorAward / grant131206,509Form 4
2026-09-14Porat RuthdirectorAward / grant3351,338Form 4
2026-09-14Saraci MarsidaofficerAward / grant11,156Form 4
2026-09-14Saraci MarsidaofficerAward / grant11,614Form 4
2026-09-14Ferguson Roger W. Jr.directorAward / grant1903Form 4
2026-09-14Ferguson Roger W. Jr.directorAward / grant11,433Form 4
2026-09-14Hennessy John L.directorAward / grant1854Form 4
2026-09-14Ashkenazi AnatdirectorAward / grant3858,989Form 4
2026-09-14Saraci MarsidaofficerAward / grant1960Form 4
2026-09-14Hennessy John L.directorAward / grant12,047Form 4
2026-09-14ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorAward / grant11941Form 4
2026-09-14WALKER JOHN KENTofficerAward / grant3351,338Form 4
2026-09-14Schindler PhilippofficerAward / grant4164,848Form 4
2026-09-14CHAVEZ R. MARTINdirectorAward / grant11,433Form 4
2026-09-14Saraci MarsidaofficerAward / grant34,149Form 4
2026-09-14Porat RuthdirectorAward / grant3757,869Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Dan NewhouseHousesale2026-07-172026-07-10$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousesale2026-07-152026-06-02$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousesale2026-07-152026-06-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-05-16$1–15K
Matthew Robert Van EppsHousesale2026-06-172026-06-16$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2026-06-122026-06-05$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-06$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-06-082026-05-05$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2026-05-282026-05-15$15–50K
David J. TaylorHousesale2026-05-282026-05-15$1–15K
Elizabeth FletcherHousesale2026-05-012026-04-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousesale2026-03-182026-02-05$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-03-102026-02-04$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.