GOOGAlphabet Inc.Communication Services · Internet Content & Informationas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $341.08 · now $341.08 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, GOOG has typically landed between $300.69 and $392.94 — a range of −11.8% to +15.2% from the issuance price $341.08.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($341.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GOOG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $341.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$300.69worst · -11.8%$392.94best · +15.2%
  • now $341.08 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $346.59 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $327.23–$365.96
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $300.69–$392.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−29.4%−29.4%+0.0%
2020-02-21−28.9%−28.9%+0.0%
2020-02-13−28.4%−28.4%+0.8%
3 best
2026-03-31+33.1%+0.0%+33.1%
2011-06-24+30.9%+0.0%+30.9%
2026-04-07+30.0%+0.0%+30.0%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$3.9T
market cap
$19.91
EPS (TTM)
16.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-11-04
next earnings
Revenue$403.0B
'20'25
Net income$132.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$73.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr32.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr31.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.14
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 17 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $341.08$95.02$546.11
  • DCF (intrinsic)$126.13
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.0× · n=17$319.09
  • Analyst target · range $345.00–$515.00$420.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$341.08

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
78%
+3.1%
n=18
Feb
42%
−1.8%
n=19
Mar
53%
−0.2%
n=19
Apr
58%
+4.5%
n=19
May
63%
+2.5%
n=19
Jun
37%
−1.7%
n=19
Jul
84%
+6.4%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.0%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.3%
n=19
Oct
67%
+4.8%
n=18
Nov
67%
+1.2%
n=18
Dec
72%
+2.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$399$200↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2024-06-12Hennessy John L.directorSale519 @ $176.73$92K−1.6% of holding+0.7%−3.1%32,641Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-12Hennessy John L.directorSale424 @ $178.51$76K−9.7% of holding+0.7%−3.1%3,935Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-12Hennessy John L.directorSale176 @ $177.38$31K−0.5% of holding+0.7%−3.1%32,465Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-12Hennessy John L.directorSale155 @ $179.36$28K−3.9% of holding+0.7%−3.1%3,780Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-12Hennessy John L.directorSale130 @ $178.54$23K−0.4% of holding+0.7%−3.1%32,335Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-12Hennessy John L.directorSale53 @ $180.66$10K−1.4% of holding+0.7%−3.1%3,727Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-12Hennessy John L.directorSale32 @ $177.97$6K−0.7% of holding+0.7%−3.1%4,359Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-12Hennessy John L.directorSale11 @ $179.19$2K−0.0% of holding+0.7%−3.1%32,324Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-05Pichai SundardirectorSale11,323 @ $176.75$2.0M−0.5% of holding+3.5%−14.7%2,238,587Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-05Pichai SundardirectorSale8,101 @ $175.99$1.4M−0.4% of holding+3.5%−14.7%2,249,910Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-05Pichai SundardirectorSale3,076 @ $177.52$546K−0.1% of holding+3.5%−14.7%2,235,511Form 4 · filed same day
2024-06-03O'Toole Amie ThuenerdirectorSale682 @ $173.86$119K−2.2% of holding+2.7%−15.7%29,966Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-15Pichai SundardirectorSale12,496 @ $173.57$2.2M−0.6% of holding+0.2%−9.4%2,258,011Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-15Pichai SundardirectorSale10,004 @ $172.78$1.7M−0.4% of holding+0.2%−9.4%2,270,507Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-13Hennessy John L.directorSale660 @ $167.65$111K−11.9% of holding+1.3%−8.9%4,869Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-13Hennessy John L.directorSale473 @ $169.50$80K−9.7% of holding+1.3%−8.9%4,391Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-13Hennessy John L.directorSale280 @ $166.68$47K−4.8% of holding+1.3%−8.9%5,608Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-13Hennessy John L.directorSale79 @ $168.12$13K−1.4% of holding+1.3%−8.9%5,529Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-13Hennessy John L.directorSale5 @ $170.03$850−0.1% of holding+1.3%−8.9%4,864Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-13Hennessy John L.directorSale3 @ $165.90$498−0.1% of holding+1.3%−8.9%5,888Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-02O'Toole Amie ThuenerdirectorSale682 @ $166.67$114K−2.3% of holding−1.0%−10.5%29,284Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade
2024-05-01Pichai SundardirectorSale9,076 @ $166.65$1.5M−0.4% of holding−0.3%−10.0%2,289,101Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-01Pichai SundardirectorSale6,600 @ $167.40$1.1M−0.3% of holding−0.3%−10.0%2,282,501Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-01Pichai SundardirectorSale4,834 @ $165.67$801K−0.2% of holding−0.3%−10.0%2,298,177Form 4 · filed same day
2024-05-01Pichai SundardirectorSale1,990 @ $168.31$335K−0.1% of holding−0.3%−10.0%2,280,511Form 4 · filed same day
2024-04-30ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorSale80 @ $167.38$13K−0.5% of holding+1.3%−12.4%15,551Form 4 · filed same day
2024-04-26Hennessy John L.directorSale2,100 @ $175.76$369K−26.3% of holding−1.7%−18.3%5,891Form 4 · filed same day
2024-04-17Pichai SundardirectorSale22,500 @ $157.41$3.5M−1.0% of holding+6.2%−10.5%2,303,011Form 4 · filed same day
2024-04-12Hennessy John L.directorSale393 @ $159.53$63K−4.6% of holding+5.4%−10.6%8,153Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-04-12Hennessy John L.directorSale245 @ $158.82$39K−2.8% of holding+5.4%−10.6%8,546Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-04-12Hennessy John L.directorSale94 @ $160.45$15K−1.2% of holding+5.4%−10.6%8,059Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-04-12Hennessy John L.directorSale68 @ $161.16$11K−0.8% of holding+5.4%−10.6%7,991Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-04-03Pichai SundardirectorSale17,352 @ $155.82$2.7M−0.7% of holding+10.5%−2.9%2,326,821Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-04-03Pichai SundardirectorSale3,840 @ $154.77$594K−0.2% of holding+10.5%−2.9%2,344,173Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-04-03Pichai SundardirectorSale1,308 @ $156.41$205K−0.1% of holding+10.5%−2.9%2,325,513Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-04-02O'Toole Amie ThuenerdirectorSale682 @ $154.79$106K−2.3% of holding+9.8%−2.0%29,284Form 4 · filed same day
2024-04-01RAGHAVAN PRABHAKARofficerSale1,758 @ $156.39$275K−1.2% of holding+9.1%−3.5%144,685Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-04-01RAGHAVAN PRABHAKARofficerSale1,300 @ $155.95$203K−0.9% of holding+9.1%−3.5%146,443Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-04-01RAGHAVAN PRABHAKARofficerSale200 @ $152.43$30K−0.1% of holding+9.1%−3.5%147,743Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-03-28ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorSale90 @ $152.00$14K−0.6% of holding+12.8%−1.1%15,412Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-03-27WALKER JOHN KENTofficerSale12,084 @ $151.19$1.8M−19.9% of holding+17.2%−2.0%48,717Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-03-20Pichai SundardirectorSale12,370 @ $148.34$1.8M−0.5% of holding+8.9%−0.7%2,320,321Form 4 · filed same day
2024-03-20Pichai SundardirectorSale10,130 @ $149.32$1.5M−0.4% of holding+8.9%−0.7%2,310,191Form 4 · filed same day
2024-03-18Hennessy John L.directorSale500 @ $149.50$75K−5.4% of holding+8.1%−1.9%8,791Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-03-12Hennessy John L.directorSale285 @ $139.58$40K−3.0% of holding+14.6%+1.3%9,291Form 4 · filed same day
2024-03-12Hennessy John L.directorSale15 @ $138.23$2K−0.2% of holding+14.6%+1.3%9,576Form 4 · filed same day
2024-03-08Porat RuthdirectorSale19,831 @ $136.42$2.7M−1.1% of holding+14.2%+2.5%1,803,952Form 4 · filed same day
2024-03-08Porat RuthdirectorSale17,046 @ $138.28$2.4M−1.0% of holding+14.2%+2.5%1,777,206Form 4 · filed same day
2024-03-08Porat RuthdirectorSale9,700 @ $137.29$1.3M−0.5% of holding+14.2%+2.5%1,794,252Form 4 · filed same day
2024-03-08Porat RuthdirectorSale1,400 @ $135.06$189K−0.1% of holding+14.2%+2.5%1,823,783Form 4 · filed same day
2024-03-08Porat RuthdirectorSale100 @ $138.93$14K−0.0% of holding+14.2%+2.5%1,777,106Form 4 · filed same day
2024-03-06Pichai SundardirectorSale19,000 @ $132.51$2.5M−0.8% of holding+14.1%+11.3%2,336,191Form 4 · filed same day
2024-03-06Pichai SundardirectorSale2,400 @ $133.43$320K−0.1% of holding+14.1%+11.3%2,333,791Form 4 · filed same day
2024-03-06Pichai SundardirectorSale1,100 @ $134.27$148K−0.0% of holding+14.1%+11.3%2,332,691Form 4 · filed same day
2024-03-04O'Toole Amie ThuenerdirectorSale682 @ $136.49$93K−2.3% of holding+14.8%+9.9%28,602Form 4 · filed same day
2024-02-29ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorSale100 @ $138.22$14K−0.7% of holding+8.9%+6.4%15,263Form 4 · filed same day
2024-02-21Pichai SundardirectorSale13,917 @ $143.47$2.0M−0.6% of holding−1.9%+3.2%2,355,191Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-02-21Pichai SundardirectorSale8,583 @ $142.46$1.2M−0.4% of holding−1.9%+3.2%2,369,108Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-02-20WALKER JOHN KENTofficerSale36,886 @ $142.20$5.2M−68.2% of holding+0.2%+5.8%17,229Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-02-20WALKER JOHN KENTofficerSale6,686 @ $141.63$947K−11.0% of holding+0.2%+5.8%54,115Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

87 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2024-06-17Schindler PhilippofficerAward / grant141126,298Form 4
2024-06-17ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorAward / grant1761Form 4
2024-06-17ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorAward / grant21,642Form 4
2024-06-17ARNOLD FRANCESdirectorAward / grant22,192Form 4
2024-06-17WALKER JOHN KENTofficerAward / grant3530,935Form 4
2024-06-17WALKER JOHN KENTofficerAward / grant11098,841Form 4
2024-06-17WALKER JOHN KENTofficerAward / grant127113,528Form 4
2024-06-17Porat RuthdirectorAward / grant3530,935Form 4
2024-06-17Hennessy John L.directorAward / grant43,133Form 4
2024-06-17Pichai SundardirectorAward / grant582521,250Form 4
2024-06-17Schindler PhilippofficerAward / grant4439,524Form 4
2024-06-17Schindler PhilippofficerAward / grant162145,063Form 4
2024-06-17Ferguson Roger W. Jr.directorAward / grant1761Form 4
2024-06-17Porat RuthdirectorAward / grant11098,841Form 4
2024-06-17Porat RuthdirectorAward / grant127113,528Form 4
2024-06-17RAGHAVAN PRABHAKARofficerAward / grant4439,524Form 4
2024-06-17RAGHAVAN PRABHAKARofficerAward / grant141126,298Form 4
2024-06-17RAGHAVAN PRABHAKARofficerAward / grant162145,063Form 4
2024-06-17O'Toole Amie ThuenerdirectorAward / grant2824,820Form 4
2024-06-17O'Toole Amie ThuenerdirectorAward / grant2724,321Form 4
2024-06-17DOERR L JOHNdirectorAward / grant1761Form 4
2024-06-17DOERR L JOHNdirectorAward / grant21,642Form 4
2024-06-17DOERR L JOHNdirectorAward / grant22,192Form 4
2024-06-17Hennessy John L.directorAward / grant11,101Form 4
2024-06-17Hennessy John L.directorAward / grant32,323Form 4
2024-06-17Shriram Kavitark RamdirectorAward / grant1761Form 4
2024-06-17Shriram Kavitark RamdirectorAward / grant21,642Form 4
2024-06-17Shriram Kavitark RamdirectorAward / grant22,192Form 4
2024-06-17Ferguson Roger W. Jr.directorAward / grant21,642Form 4
2024-06-17Ferguson Roger W. Jr.directorAward / grant22,192Form 4
2024-06-17Washington Robin LdirectorAward / grant1761Form 4
2024-06-17Washington Robin LdirectorAward / grant21,642Form 4
2024-06-17Washington Robin LdirectorAward / grant22,192Form 4
2024-06-17CHAVEZ R. MARTINdirectorAward / grant22,192Form 4
2024-06-17CHAVEZ R. MARTINdirectorAward / grant54,785Form 4
2024-05-30Sergey BrindirectorConversion384,600384,600Form 4
2024-05-30Sergey BrindirectorGift384,600363,945,408Form 4
2024-05-30Sergey BrindirectorGift384,6000Form 4
2024-05-30Sergey BrindirectorConversion384,600362,744,028Form 4
2024-05-25O'Toole Amie ThuenerdirectorWithheld for tax1,39024,792Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Jerry MoranSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-06-23$1–15K
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-30$1–15K
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$50–100K
Daniel CrenshawHousesale2026-07-162026-06-01$1–15K
Cleo FieldsHousepurchase2026-06-262026-06-15$1–15K
Jerry MoranSenatesale2026-06-252026-05-27$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-18$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-02$1–15K
Cleo FieldsHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-06$1–15K
John FettermanSenatepurchase2026-04-032026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-23$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.