Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.82 · now $46.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GOLD has typically landed between $37.23 and $58.52 — a range of −20.5% to +25.0% from the issuance price $46.82.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,124 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-03-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GOLD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $46.82 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $47.15 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $42.81–$51.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.23–$58.52
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,124 windows spanning 2014-03-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-02-27 | −33.9% | −33.9% | +0.0% |
| 2024-10-18 | −33.7% | −33.7% | +0.0% |
| 2024-10-17 | −32.2% | −32.2% | +2.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-20 | +69.8% | +0.0% | +70.5% |
| 2026-01-08 | +68.5% | +0.0% | +68.5% |
| 2026-01-09 | +60.5% | +0.0% | +64.5% |
3,124 overlapping windows · 2014-03-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
58%
+5.0%
n=12
Feb
33%
+1.5%
n=12
Mar
58%
+4.8%
n=12
Apr
69%
+5.3%
n=13
May
38%
+0.2%
n=13
Jun
46%
−0.8%
n=13
Jul
62%
+4.4%
n=13
Aug
54%
+1.8%
n=13
Sep
46%
+5.3%
n=13
Oct
33%
+0.6%
n=12
Nov
50%
−1.5%
n=12
Dec
50%
+1.4%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $47.70 | $1.4M | −8.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 323,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $48.04 | $1.4M | −7.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 353,238 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | John Moorhead | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $47.34 | $47K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | John Moorhead | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $48.41 | $73K | −5.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,756 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $45.83 | $458K | −26.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,202 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 22,835 @ $49.41 | $1.1M | −42.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,367 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 2,165 @ $48.91 | $106K | −7.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,202 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $46.86 | $703K | −34.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Aquilino Brian | officer | Sale | 6,667 @ $47.02 | $313K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | MELTZER CAROL | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $46.86 | $187K | −72.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Tether Global Investments Fund, S.I.C.A.F., S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $39.30 | $3.9M | +50.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 300,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Tether Global Investments Fund, S.I.C.A.F., S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 58,536 @ $43.11 | $2.5M | +41.4% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 200,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Tether Global Investments Fund, S.I.C.A.F., S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 40,141 @ $41.36 | $1.7M | +39.6% of holding | +2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 141,464 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | Tether Global Investments Fund, S.I.C.A.F., S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 56,590 @ $40.57 | $2.3M | +126.5% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,323 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Tether Global Investments Fund, S.I.C.A.F., S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 44,733 @ $39.40 | $1.8M | ownership Δ n/a | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $41.58 | $1.7M | −58.6% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $41.58 | $1.7M | −58.6% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $42.00 | $1.3M | −51.5% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,202 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $45.67 | $913K | −34.4% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $43.93 | $439K | −26.2% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Tether Global Investments Fund, S.I.C.A.F., S.A. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 530,338 @ $44.50 | $23.6M | +18.7% of holding | −8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,370,787 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | RICHARDSON WILLIAM A | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,000 @ $40.00 | $800K | −6.7% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 277,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | RICHARDSON WILLIAM A | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 14,780 @ $45.00 | $665K | −4.7% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 297,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 24,683 @ $50.17 | $1.2M | −4.7% of holding | −8.6% | −18.3% | 502,506 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 2,935 @ $53.03 | $156K | −0.6% of holding | −15.4% | −26.7% | 527,189 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 14,540 @ $56.80 | $826K | −2.7% of holding | −22.3% | −33.6% | 530,124 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | John Moorhead | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $57.05 | $114K | −6.2% of holding | −22.3% | −33.6% | 30,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $56.73 | $1.4M | −4.4% of holding | −24.5% | −32.9% | 544,664 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 21,746 @ $57.04 | $1.2M | −3.7% of holding | −26.3% | −33.1% | 572,918 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 3,254 @ $57.57 | $187K | −0.6% of holding | −26.3% | −33.1% | 569,664 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | MELTZER CAROL | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $56.38 | $113K | −7.8% of holding | −26.3% | −33.1% | 23,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $56.36 | $1.4M | −4.0% of holding | −22.3% | −30.5% | 594,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $56.25 | $1.4M | −3.9% of holding | −22.9% | −29.7% | 619,664 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 19,002 @ $57.06 | $1.1M | −2.9% of holding | −20.1% | −29.3% | 644,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 5,998 @ $56.21 | $337K | −0.9% of holding | −20.1% | −29.3% | 663,666 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 15,604 @ $57.01 | $890K | −2.3% of holding | −19.6% | −31.7% | 669,664 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 34,540 @ $58.36 | $2.0M | −4.8% of holding | −20.7% | −32.7% | 691,460 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 460 @ $59.03 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | −20.7% | −32.7% | 691,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 39,741 @ $58.44 | $2.3M | −5.2% of holding | −22.7% | −33.5% | 726,259 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 259 @ $59.02 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | −22.7% | −33.5% | 726,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $57.64 | $1.4M | −33.7% of holding | −19.8% | −33.2% | 49,240 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $58.33 | $1.2M | −21.2% of holding | −18.2% | −41.1% | 74,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 68,258 @ $60.88 | $4.2M | −42.0% of holding | −19.5% | −38.8% | 94,240 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 6,921 @ $61.59 | $426K | −4.1% of holding | −19.5% | −38.8% | 162,498 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | BENJAMIN JEFFREY D | director | Sale | 4,821 @ $62.42 | $301K | −2.8% of holding | −17.0% | −37.7% | 169,419 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Lepine Beverley | director | Sale | 500 @ $61.92 | $31K | −3.3% of holding | −17.0% | −37.7% | 14,820 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-11 | RAVICH JESS M | director | Sale | 9,260 @ $62.09 | $575K | −5.8% of holding | −20.0% | −42.7% | 150,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 8,689 @ $60.37 | $525K | −18.5% of holding | −20.0% | −42.7% | 38,378 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Aquilino Brian | officer | Sale | 7,364 @ $58.58 | $431K | −73.6% of holding | −20.0% | −42.7% | 2,636 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 6,813 @ $61.69 | $420K | −17.8% of holding | −20.0% | −42.7% | 31,565 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | RAVICH JESS M | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $62.05 | $310K | −7.9% of holding | −20.0% | −42.7% | 58,433 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 3,363 @ $62.61 | $211K | −10.7% of holding | −20.0% | −42.7% | 28,202 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Aquilino Brian | officer | Sale | 2,636 @ $62.26 | $164K | −100.0% of holding | −20.0% | −42.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 1,252 @ $63.37 | $79K | −4.3% of holding | −20.0% | −42.7% | 28,202 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 54,671 @ $62.88 | $3.4M | −50.5% of holding | −17.8% | −40.2% | 53,531 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | RAVICH JESS M | director | Sale | 37,600 @ $63.51 | $2.4M | −19.1% of holding | −17.8% | −40.2% | 159,260 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Sale | 24,299 @ $63.73 | $1.5M | −45.4% of holding | −17.8% | −40.2% | 29,232 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | RAVICH JESS M | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $63.58 | $1.3M | −24.0% of holding | −17.8% | −40.2% | 63,433 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | RAVICH JESS M | director | Sale | 18,940 @ $63.47 | $1.2M | −65.7% of holding | −17.8% | −40.2% | 9,900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | RAVICH JESS M | director | Sale | 5,664 @ $63.43 | $359K | −10.5% of holding | −17.8% | −40.2% | 48,476 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
55 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 38,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 53,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Aquilino Brian | officer | Option exercise | 6,667 | 13,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Aquilino Brian | officer | Option exercise | 6,667 | 6,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 43,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | MELTZER CAROL | director | Option exercise | 4,000 | 6,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | MELTZER CAROL | director | Option exercise | 4,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Van Jill | officer | Withheld for tax | 743 | 5,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Gjerdrum Thor | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,840 | 55,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Saville Kendall | director | Option exercise | 6,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Saville Kendall | director | Option exercise | 6,000 | 310,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Saville Kendall | director | Withheld for tax | 2,543 | 308,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 68,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 68,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 325,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 325,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 365,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 58,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 58,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 395,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Dickson Cary | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,603 | 2,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Sartori Juan | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Lepine Beverley | director | Award / grant | 53 | 14,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | MELTZER CAROL | director | Option exercise | 2,000 | 25,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | MELTZER CAROL | director | Option exercise | 2,000 | 4,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | RAVICH JESS M | director | Gift | 10,000 | 38,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Aquilino Brian | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Aquilino Brian | officer | Option exercise | 7,364 | 7,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 20,117 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Aquilino Brian | officer | Option exercise | 2,636 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 8,689 | 36,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 6,813 | 43,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 3,363 | 47,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 1,252 | 29,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 80,000 | 20,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 54,671 | 82,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | ROBERTS GREGORY N | director | Option exercise | 24,299 | 107,172 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.