Issued 2026-09-16 at $175.11 · now $175.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GNRC has typically landed between $135.40 and $219.56 — a range of −22.7% to +25.4% from the issuance price $175.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,153 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-02-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($175.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GNRC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $175.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $175.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $172.91 (-1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $153.85–$191.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $135.4–$219.56
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,153 windows spanning 2010-02-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-10-05 | −43.3% | −43.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-10-04 | −43.0% | −43.0% | +0.0% |
| 2022-10-06 | −40.0% | −40.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2012-06-28 | +105.6% | +0.0% | +107.0% |
| 2012-06-27 | +104.0% | −0.8% | +105.3% |
| 2012-06-29 | +103.3% | +0.0% | +104.4% |
4,153 overlapping windows · 2010-02-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$11.9B
market cap
$3.19
EPS (TTM)
63.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$4.2B
'20'25
Net income$160M
'20'25
Free cash flow$268M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr3.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr6.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.51
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$67.88
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$97.78
- Analyst target · range $257.00–$335.00$302.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$175.11
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
+0.1%
n=16
Feb
44%
+6.9%
n=16
Mar
41%
−0.7%
n=17
Apr
47%
+0.0%
n=17
May
71%
+1.5%
n=17
Jun
71%
+8.4%
n=17
Jul
71%
+11.5%
n=17
Aug
47%
−1.8%
n=17
Sep
47%
−1.8%
n=17
Oct
75%
+6.9%
n=16
Nov
63%
+3.6%
n=16
Dec
56%
−0.7%
n=16
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 200 @ $188.27 | $38K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 100 @ $190.00 | $19K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,276 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 100 @ $188.27 | $19K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,276 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $182.21 | $911K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 549,528 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Raabe Kyle Andrew | officer | Sale | 373 @ $213.35 | $80K | −3.4% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,746 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Raabe Kyle Andrew | officer | Sale | 213 @ $213.35 | $45K | −1.9% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,746 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 200 @ $218.39 | $44K | −1.3% of holding | −16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,608 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 150 @ $220.00 | $33K | −1.0% of holding | −16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,508 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 100 @ $218.39 | $22K | −0.6% of holding | −16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,508 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $194.89 | $974K | −0.9% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 554,528 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 200 @ $256.00 | $51K | −1.2% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,908 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 150 @ $256.00 | $38K | −0.9% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,808 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 100 @ $256.00 | $26K | −0.6% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,808 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $288.05 | $1.4M | −0.9% of holding | −27.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 559,528 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 200 @ $272.26 | $54K | −1.2% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,208 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 150 @ $272.26 | $41K | −0.9% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,108 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 100 @ $272.26 | $27K | −0.6% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,108 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $272.18 | $1.4M | −0.9% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 564,528 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $260.02 | $1.3M | −0.9% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 569,528 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $199.81 | $999K | −0.9% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 574,528 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $216.95 | $1.1M | −0.9% of holding | −7.6% | −30.4% | 579,528 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Ragen York A. | officer | Sale | 12,324 @ $236.57 | $2.9M | −8.2% of holding | −9.6% | −23.8% | 138,083 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Ragen York A. | officer | Sale | 6,167 @ $235.79 | $1.5M | −3.9% of holding | −9.6% | −23.8% | 150,407 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Ragen York A. | officer | Sale | 1,679 @ $231.20 | $388K | −1.0% of holding | −9.6% | −23.8% | 159,864 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Ragen York A. | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $233.35 | $350K | −0.9% of holding | −9.6% | −23.8% | 157,498 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 1,040 @ $238.00 | $248K | −6.9% of holding | −9.6% | −23.8% | 14,011 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Sale | 933 @ $239.13 | $223K | −6.2% of holding | −9.6% | −23.8% | 14,011 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Ragen York A. | officer | Sale | 924 @ $234.52 | $217K | −0.6% of holding | −9.6% | −23.8% | 156,574 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Ragen York A. | officer | Sale | 902 @ $237.28 | $214K | −0.7% of holding | −9.6% | −23.8% | 137,182 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Ragen York A. | officer | Sale | 866 @ $232.42 | $201K | −0.5% of holding | −9.6% | −23.8% | 158,998 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $166.91 | $835K | −0.9% of holding | +30.7% | +16.4% | 527,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $137.98 | $690K | −0.9% of holding | +21.9% | +57.1% | 532,966 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $148.27 | $741K | −0.9% of holding | −9.2% | +79.7% | 537,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $166.43 | $832K | −0.9% of holding | −2.9% | +55.3% | 542,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $167.42 | $837K | −0.9% of holding | −3.0% | +16.9% | 547,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $181.21 | $906K | −0.9% of holding | −11.2% | +15.4% | 552,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $189.35 | $947K | −0.9% of holding | −10.3% | −24.2% | 557,966 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $142.40 | $712K | −0.9% of holding | +30.5% | −17.8% | 562,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $127.47 | $637K | −0.9% of holding | +13.2% | +13.2% | 567,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Raabe Kyle Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,630 @ $126.85 | $207K | −17.6% of holding | +13.2% | +13.2% | 7,638 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $145.15 | $726K | −0.9% of holding | −7.6% | +30.8% | 565,825 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $157.50 | $788K | −0.9% of holding | −12.1% | −11.7% | 570,825 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
134 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 11,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 2,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,932 | 11,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Raabe Kyle Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 213 | 10,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Raabe Kyle Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 213 | 850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 150 | 15,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 15,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 150 | 2,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 2,370 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Morgan Bennett J | director | Award / grant | 166 | 32,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | LAMPEREUR ANDREW | director | Award / grant | 160 | 28,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Zarcone Dominick P | director | Award / grant | 128 | 19,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 150 | 15,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 15,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 150 | 2,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 2,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 150 | 16,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 16,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 2,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Option exercise | 150 | 2,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Morgan Bennett J | director | Award / grant | 825 | 32,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | LAMPEREUR ANDREW | director | Award / grant | 820 | 28,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Zarcone Dominick P | director | Award / grant | 796 | 19,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ramon David A. | director | Award / grant | 699 | 8,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Dixon Robert D | director | Award / grant | 699 | 12,602 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Jenkins William D Jr | director | Award / grant | 699 | 11,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Bohl Kathryn V | director | Award / grant | 699 | 14,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | AVEDON MARCIA J | director | Award / grant | 699 | 9,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Withheld for tax | 5,241 | 591,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Withheld for tax | 2,619 | 588,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Withheld for tax | 2,178 | 586,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Jagdfeld Aaron | director | Withheld for tax | 2,020 | 584,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Ragen York A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,147 | 140,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Wilde Erik | officer | Withheld for tax | 677 | 16,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kanuru Rajendra Kumar | officer | Withheld for tax | 670 | 13,724 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Withheld for tax | 575 | 17,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Ragen York A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 573 | 139,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Raabe Kyle Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 571 | 11,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Ragen York A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 458 | 139,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Taffe Norman P | officer | Withheld for tax | 443 | 17,287 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-01 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-04-28 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-08-07 | 2024-07-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-12-06 | 2023-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2023-05-08 | 2023-04-25 | $1–15K |
| James R. Langevin | House | sale | 2023-01-09 | 2022-12-12 | $1–15K |
| James R. Langevin | House | sale | 2023-01-09 | 2022-12-20 | $1–15K |
| James R. Langevin | House | purchase | 2023-01-09 | 2022-12-05 | $15–50K |
| Thomas Suozzi | House | sale | 2022-12-19 | 2022-11-15 | $1–15K |
| James R. Langevin | House | purchase | 2022-12-07 | 2022-11-29 | $1–15K |
| James R. Langevin | House | sale | 2022-11-08 | 2022-10-03 | $1–15K |
| James R. Langevin | House | sale | 2022-11-08 | 2022-10-20 | $15–50K |
| Thomas R. Suozzi | House | purchase | 2022-10-14 | 2022-09-26 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.