Issued 2026-09-16 at $75.26 · now $75.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GMED has typically landed between $64.22 and $86.41 — a range of −14.7% to +14.8% from the issuance price $75.26.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,528 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-08-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($75.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GMED has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $75.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $75.26 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $75.29 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $70.77–$79.82
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $64.22–$86.41
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −37.9% | −37.9% | +0.3% |
| 2020-02-12 | −33.1% | −33.1% | +1.9% |
| 2020-02-18 | −32.2% | −38.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-10-10 | +52.7% | +0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2025-11-05 | +48.1% | +0.0% | +48.2% |
| 2025-10-29 | +48.1% | −1.8% | +48.3% |
3,528 overlapping windows · 2012-08-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | TOBIN JAMES R | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $74.58 | $2.2M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | ZARRILLI STEPHEN T | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $87.04 | $2.2M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Davidar David D | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $80.76 | $2.0M | −4.7% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 510,175 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Huller Kelly | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $94.50 | $1.9M | −100.0% of holding | −3.4% | −24.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Huller Kelly | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $87.67 | $877K | −100.0% of holding | +0.1% | −16.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Kline Kyle | officer | Sale | 3,594 @ $101.10 | $363K | −100.0% of holding | −8.1% | −24.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Norwalk Leslie V | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $101.10 | $202K | −16.1% of holding | −8.1% | −24.9% | 10,419 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Norwalk Leslie V | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $88.85 | $355K | −24.4% of holding | +5.1% | −21.3% | 12,419 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Kline Kyle | officer | Sale | 18,542 @ $90.00 | $1.7M | −100.0% of holding | −3.3% | −24.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Huller Kelly | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $90.00 | $675K | −100.0% of holding | −5.6% | −22.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Davidar David D | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $86.00 | $2.2M | −4.6% of holding | +2.6% | −18.3% | 516,275 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | ZARRILLI STEPHEN T | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $84.29 | $2.1M | −100.0% of holding | +3.7% | −19.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | RHOADS ANN D | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $85.00 | $170K | −11.5% of holding | +0.8% | −22.0% | 15,384 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-07 | RHOADS ANN D | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $81.00 | $648K | −31.5% of holding | +3.6% | −19.9% | 17,384 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | RHOADS ANN D | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $58.46 | $585K | −28.3% of holding | −0.7% | +49.3% | 25,384 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | RHOADS ANN D | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $78.68 | $590K | −17.5% of holding | −3.3% | −32.9% | 35,384 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | Pfeil Keith W | director | Sale | 12,501 @ $88.17 | $1.1M | −88.2% of holding | −7.5% | −43.6% | 1,666 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | Pfeil Keith W | director | Sale | 1,666 @ $89.17 | $149K | −100.0% of holding | −7.5% | −43.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
64 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | TOBIN JAMES R | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | TOBIN JAMES R | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | TOBIN JAMES R | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | ZARRILLI STEPHEN T | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | ZARRILLI STEPHEN T | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Davidar David D | director | Gift | 2,500 | 507,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Davidar David D | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 535,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Davidar David D | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | RHOADS ANN D | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 40,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | RHOADS ANN D | director | Option exercise | 25,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Huller Kelly | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Huller Kelly | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Huller Kelly | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Huller Kelly | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | RHOADS ANN D | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Huller Kelly | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Davidar David D | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Wolterman Dan | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | DeFord John A | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | ZARRILLI STEPHEN T | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | TOBIN JAMES R | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Paul David C | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Pfeil Keith W | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Lemaitre Dan | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Douglas Robert Andrew | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Kline Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Norwalk Leslie V | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Kline Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 3,594 | 3,594 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Kline Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 3,594 | 3,906 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Paul David C | director | Option exercise | 34,375 | 60,417 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Paul David C | director | Option exercise | 34,375 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kline Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 13,646 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kline Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 4,896 | 18,542 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kline Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 8,646 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kline Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 3,646 | 3,646 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kline Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kline Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 3,646 | 1,354 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Kline Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Huller Kelly | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Huller Kelly | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.