GMEGameStop Corp.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.98 · now $21.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GME has typically landed between $16.05 and $29.27 — a range of −27.0% to +33.2% from the issuance price $21.98.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,670 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GME has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$16.05worst · -27.0%$29.27best · +33.2%
  • now $21.98 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.37 (-2.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.87–$23.87
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.05–$29.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,670 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-06-06−47.2%−49.9%+0.0%
2021-03-12−46.7%−54.5%+0.0%
2021-03-11−45.7%−53.7%+1.7%
3 best
2020-12-28+971.4%−17.9%+971.4%
2020-12-24+860.3%−14.5%+860.3%
2020-12-23+619.6%−16.1%+619.6%

4,670 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
28%
+44.7%
n=18
Feb
47%
−2.9%
n=19
Mar
58%
+9.0%
n=19
Apr
68%
+5.2%
n=19
May
32%
+3.1%
n=19
Jun
37%
−2.6%
n=19
Jul
42%
−2.7%
n=19
Aug
47%
+2.8%
n=19
Sep
47%
+6.2%
n=19
Oct
44%
−1.6%
n=18
Nov
61%
+3.0%
n=18
Dec
39%
−3.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$182026-09-10: 2 insider purchases, $20.5M — Cohen Ryan, Attal Alain2026-09-09: 1 insider purchase, $196K — Grube James2026-09-08: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — Cheng Lawrence2026-07-06: 1 insider sale, $90K — Robinson Mark Haymond2026-07-01: 2 insider sales, $317K — Moore Daniel William, Robinson Mark Haymond2026-04-13: 1 insider sale, $91K — Robinson Mark Haymond2026-04-01: 2 insider sales, $331K — Moore Daniel William, Robinson Mark Haymond2026-01-23: 1 insider purchase, $114K — Cheng Lawrence2026-01-21: 2 insider purchases, $11.1M — Cohen Ryan, Attal Alain2026-01-20: 2 insider purchases, $10.8M — Cohen Ryan, Attal Alain2026-01-12: 1 insider sale, $256K — Robinson Mark Haymond2026-01-02: 2 insider sales, $224K — Moore Daniel William, Robinson Mark Haymond2025-10-02: 2 insider sales, $302K — Moore Daniel William, Robinson Mark Haymond2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $19K — Moore Daniel William2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $19K2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $302K2026-01: 5 open-market purchases, $22.0M2026-01: 3 open-market sales, $480K2026-04: 3 open-market sales, $422K2026-07: 3 open-market sales, $407K2026-09: 4 open-market purchases, $21.7M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Cohen Ryan — Purchase on 2026-09-10, filed same daydirector Attal Alain — Purchase on 2026-09-10, filed same daydirector Grube James — Purchase on 2026-09-09, filed same daydirector Cheng Lawrence — Purchase on 2026-09-08, filed same dayofficer Robinson Mark Haymond — Sale on 2026-07-06, filed same dayofficer Moore Daniel William — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Robinson Mark Haymond — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Robinson Mark Haymond — Sale on 2026-04-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Moore Daniel William — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Robinson Mark Haymond — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Cheng Lawrence — Purchase on 2026-01-23, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Cohen Ryan — Purchase on 2026-01-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Attal Alain — Purchase on 2026-01-21, filed same daydirector Cohen Ryan — Purchase on 2026-01-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Attal Alain — Purchase on 2026-01-20, filed same dayofficer Robinson Mark Haymond — Sale on 2026-01-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Moore Daniel William — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Robinson Mark Haymond — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Moore Daniel William — Sale on 2025-10-02, filed same dayofficer Robinson Mark Haymond — Sale on 2025-10-02, filed same dayofficer Moore Daniel William — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Cohen RyandirectorPurchase1,000,000 @ $20.38$20.4M+2.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open39,347,842Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-10Attal AlaindirectorPurchase5,000 @ $20.00$100K+0.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open601,464Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-09Grube JamesdirectorPurchase10,255 @ $19.12$196K+34.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open39,694Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-08Cheng LawrencedirectorPurchase55,000 @ $18.80$1.0M+62.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open143,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-06Robinson Mark HaymondofficerSale3,957 @ $22.62$90K−3.7% of holding−22.2%not yet — horizon still open104,190Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-01Moore Daniel WilliamofficerSale7,085 @ $22.38$159K−5.8% of holding−23.6%not yet — horizon still open115,125Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-01Robinson Mark HaymondofficerSale7,083 @ $22.38$159K−6.1% of holding−23.6%not yet — horizon still open108,147Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-04-13Robinson Mark HaymondofficerSale3,912 @ $23.19$91K−3.3% of holding−12.0%not yet — horizon still open115,230Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Moore Daniel WilliamofficerSale7,210 @ $22.94$165K−6.7% of holding+6.6%not yet — horizon still open101,014Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-01Robinson Mark HaymondofficerSale7,209 @ $22.94$165K−6.9% of holding+6.6%not yet — horizon still open97,946Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-23Cheng LawrencedirectorPurchase5,000 @ $22.87$114K+6.0% of holding+3.7%−32.0%88,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-21Cohen RyandirectorPurchase500,000 @ $21.60$10.8M+1.3% of holding+7.4%−26.8%38,347,842Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-21Attal AlaindirectorPurchase12,000 @ $21.63$260K+2.1% of holding+7.4%−26.8%596,464Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-20Cohen RyandirectorPurchase500,000 @ $21.12$10.6M+1.3% of holding+12.3%−8.5%37,847,842Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-20Attal AlaindirectorPurchase12,000 @ $20.90$251K+2.1% of holding+12.3%−8.5%584,464Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-12Robinson Mark HaymondofficerSale12,200 @ $21.00$256K−10.4% of holding+15.9%−3.1%105,155Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-02Moore Daniel WilliamofficerSale5,477 @ $20.44$112K−4.8% of holding+18.0%−2.4%108,224Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02Robinson Mark HaymondofficerSale5,475 @ $20.44$112K−4.5% of holding+18.0%−2.4%117,355Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-02Moore Daniel WilliamofficerSale6,509 @ $27.58$180K−5.5% of holding−20.0%−14.2%112,620Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-02Robinson Mark HaymondofficerSale4,449 @ $27.58$123K−3.8% of holding−20.0%−14.2%112,302Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-02Moore Daniel WilliamofficerSale830 @ $22.68$19K−0.7% of holding+13.6%−5.7%119,129Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-24Robinson Mark HaymondofficerSale30 @ $23.81$714−0.0% of holding−4.4%−11.6%116,751Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-23Robinson Mark HaymondofficerSale11,055 @ $24.18$267K−8.6% of holding−6.1%−12.7%116,781Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-02Robinson Mark HaymondofficerSale1,269 @ $23.95$30K−1.0% of holding−7.9%−26.7%127,836Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-02Moore Daniel WilliamofficerSale721 @ $23.95$17K−1.5% of holding−7.9%−26.7%48,899Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-30Grube JamesdirectorPurchase5,575 @ $23.71$132K+23.4% of holding−10.6%−27.8%29,439Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-10Attal AlaindirectorPurchase10,000 @ $25.75$258K+1.8% of holding+1.0%−32.1%572,464Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-03Cohen RyandirectorPurchase500,000 @ $21.55$10.8M+1.4% of holding+21.1%−5.1%37,347,842Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-03Cheng LawrencedirectorPurchase5,000 @ $21.54$108K+6.4% of holding+21.1%−5.1%83,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-02Robinson Mark HaymondofficerSale4,687 @ $22.53$106K−11.1% of holding+20.7%+0.7%37,663Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-02Moore Daniel WilliamofficerSale1,608 @ $22.53$36K−5.1% of holding+20.7%+0.7%29,777Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-03Robinson Mark HaymondofficerSale1,577 @ $31.07$49K−3.6% of holding−23.3%−32.8%42,350Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-03Moore Daniel WilliamofficerSale895 @ $31.07$28K−2.8% of holding−23.3%−32.8%31,385Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

8 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-01Moore Daniel WilliamofficerAward / grant21,196122,210Form 4
2026-04-01Robinson Mark HaymondofficerAward / grant21,196119,142Form 4
2025-12-23Moore Daniel WilliamofficerAward / grant1,081113,701Form 4
2025-12-23Robinson Mark HaymondofficerAward / grant967122,830Form 4
2025-12-09Robinson Mark HaymondofficerAward / grant9,561121,863Form 4
2025-08-11Moore Daniel WilliamofficerAward / grant71,060119,959Form 4
2025-07-01Robinson Mark HaymondofficerAward / grant91,442129,105Form 4
2025-07-01Moore Daniel WilliamofficerAward / grant19,84349,620Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-11$1–15K
Michael GarciaHousepurchase2021-07-132021-06-21$1–15K
Pat ToomeySenatesale2021-02-082021-01-28$1–15K
Pat ToomeySenatepurchase2021-02-082021-01-27$1–15K
Greg GianforteSenatesale2018-12-112018-11-19$1–15K
Gary PalmerHousepurchase2018-09-292017-04-04$1–15K
Greg GianforteSenatepurchase2018-04-132018-03-26$1–15K
Tammy DuckworthSenatesale2017-06-142017-05-10$1–15K
Sheldon WhitehouseSenatesale2016-01-202016-01-05$1–15K
Tammy DuckworthSenatepurchase2015-11-172015-01-30$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.