Issued 2026-09-16 at $84.29 · now $84.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GM has typically landed between $72.14 and $98.23 — a range of −14.4% to +16.5% from the issuance price $84.29.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,958 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-11-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($84.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $84.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $84.29 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $85.64 (+1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $79.51–$91.78
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $72.14–$98.23
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −50.6% | −50.6% | +2.6% |
| 2020-02-19 | −48.7% | −51.3% | +1.1% |
| 2020-02-21 | −48.6% | −50.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-04 | +40.1% | +0.0% | +40.1% |
| 2020-05-06 | +39.9% | −2.0% | +39.9% |
| 2020-05-05 | +37.1% | +0.0% | +37.1% |
3,958 overlapping windows · 2010-11-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-152.98
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$47.17
- Analyst target · range $61.00–$110.00$101.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$84.29
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | DIXTON GRANT MICHAEL | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $88.44 | $3.5M | −42.1% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,992 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 108,382 @ $90.38 | $9.8M | −20.2% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 428,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 91,843 @ $90.38 | $8.3M | −14.6% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 537,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Reuss Mark L | director | Sale | 71,079 @ $89.97 | $6.4M | −43.5% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 69,564 @ $90.38 | $6.3M | −11.5% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 537,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 48,659 @ $90.38 | $4.4M | −8.3% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 537,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Hatto Christopher | officer | Sale | 6,895 @ $90.00 | $621K | −26.7% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,899 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 54,866 @ $85.32 | $4.7M | −9.3% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 537,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 49,495 @ $85.33 | $4.2M | −7.7% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 592,242 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Harvey Rory | officer | Sale | 8,882 @ $86.95 | $772K | −23.8% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,513 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 83,476 @ $85.10 | $7.1M | −12.4% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 592,242 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 8,896 @ $85.10 | $757K | −1.5% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 592,242 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 6,867 @ $85.10 | $584K | −1.1% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 592,242 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 20,582 @ $85.00 | $1.7M | −3.4% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 592,242 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 23,000 @ $85.00 | $2.0M | −3.7% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 592,242 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 75,192 @ $85.03 | $6.4M | −11.3% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 592,242 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 59,762 @ $85.03 | $5.1M | −8.2% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 667,434 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | Harvey Rory | officer | Sale | 9,124 @ $84.97 | $775K | −19.6% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,395 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Hatto Christopher | officer | Sale | 6,895 @ $85.00 | $586K | −21.1% of holding | −6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,794 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 103,057 @ $82.32 | $8.5M | −13.4% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 667,434 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Harvey Rory | officer | Sale | 65,912 @ $83.03 | $5.5M | −58.6% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,519 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-27 | Harvey Rory | officer | Sale | 13,582 @ $82.97 | $1.1M | −10.8% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,431 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 91,843 @ $80.01 | $7.3M | −10.6% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 775,816 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 69,564 @ $80.01 | $5.6M | −8.2% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 775,816 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 48,659 @ $80.01 | $3.9M | −5.9% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 775,816 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Jacobson Paul A | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $80.00 | $3.2M | −8.6% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 425,675 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 5,325 @ $80.01 | $426K | −0.7% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 770,491 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Harvey Rory | officer | Sale | 5,652 @ $79.57 | $450K | −4.3% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 126,013 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Reuss Mark L | director | Sale | 249,567 @ $80.61 | $20.1M | −72.8% of holding | −6.1% | −9.5% | 93,392 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Reuss Mark L | director | Sale | 147,569 @ $80.61 | $11.9M | −30.1% of holding | −6.1% | −9.5% | 342,959 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Reuss Mark L | director | Sale | 82,489 @ $80.10 | $6.6M | −19.4% of holding | −6.1% | −9.5% | 342,959 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Reuss Mark L | director | Sale | 1,099 @ $80.94 | $89K | −1.2% of holding | −6.1% | −9.5% | 92,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Hatto Christopher | officer | Sale | 7,724 @ $72.00 | $556K | −39.1% of holding | +13.1% | −4.1% | 12,007 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Hatto Christopher | officer | Sale | 15,697 @ $70.00 | $1.1M | −56.7% of holding | +5.3% | +5.3% | 12,007 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | Reuss Mark L | director | Sale | 147,570 @ $66.46 | $9.8M | −53.0% of holding | +3.4% | +8.9% | 131,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | Reuss Mark L | director | Sale | 80,000 @ $66.46 | $5.3M | −37.9% of holding | +3.4% | +8.9% | 131,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | Reuss Mark L | director | Sale | 33,030 @ $66.38 | $2.2M | −25.2% of holding | +3.4% | +8.9% | 98,006 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Hatto Christopher | officer | Sale | 13,816 @ $61.01 | $843K | −53.5% of holding | +9.8% | +23.3% | 12,007 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Hatto Christopher | officer | Sale | 9,584 @ $61.00 | $585K | −44.4% of holding | +9.8% | +23.3% | 12,007 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Harvey Rory | officer | Sale | 6,600 @ $61.95 | $409K | −43.7% of holding | +9.8% | +23.3% | 8,513 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | Reuss Mark L | director | Sale | 69,876 @ $60.12 | $4.2M | −34.8% of holding | +12.0% | +24.1% | 131,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | Reuss Mark L | director | Sale | 66,285 @ $60.11 | $4.0M | −24.8% of holding | +12.0% | +24.1% | 200,912 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 372,024 @ $59.95 | $22.3M | −37.0% of holding | +9.9% | +28.6% | 633,527 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $59.95 | $12.0M | −31.6% of holding | +9.9% | +28.6% | 433,527 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 181,696 @ $59.95 | $10.9M | −22.3% of holding | +9.9% | +28.6% | 633,527 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Reuss Mark L | director | Sale | 13,715 @ $60.03 | $823K | −6.0% of holding | +9.9% | +28.6% | 214,066 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Reuss Mark L | director | Sale | 13,154 @ $60.03 | $790K | −6.1% of holding | +9.9% | +28.6% | 200,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 23,818 @ $59.90 | $1.4M | −3.6% of holding | +14.2% | +31.7% | 633,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 29,486 @ $59.92 | $1.8M | −4.4% of holding | −6.1% | +22.9% | 633,527 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Harvey Rory | officer | Sale | 4,459 @ $59.95 | $267K | −34.4% of holding | −6.1% | +22.9% | 8,513 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 87,839 @ $58.13 | $5.1M | −100.0% of holding | +0.8% | +26.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 372,024 @ $58.24 | $21.7M | −40.3% of holding | +2.2% | +27.2% | 552,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 300,000 @ $58.24 | $17.5M | −35.2% of holding | +2.2% | +27.2% | 552,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Sale | 235,000 @ $58.24 | $13.7M | −29.9% of holding | +2.2% | +27.2% | 552,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Hatto Christopher | officer | Sale | 14,667 @ $59.00 | $865K | −55.0% of holding | +1.9% | +27.9% | 12,007 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Hatto Christopher | officer | Sale | 26,042 @ $55.11 | $1.4M | −68.4% of holding | +3.6% | +38.2% | 12,007 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Hatto Christopher | officer | Sale | 10,762 @ $55.09 | $593K | −47.3% of holding | +3.6% | +38.2% | 12,007 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Harvey Rory | officer | Sale | 11,454 @ $53.05 | $608K | −42.7% of holding | +7.2% | +55.0% | 15,384 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Harvey Rory | officer | Sale | 6,871 @ $52.69 | $362K | −44.7% of holding | +7.2% | +55.0% | 8,513 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Harvey Rory | officer | Sale | 5,652 @ $53.32 | $301K | −39.9% of holding | +7.2% | +55.0% | 8,513 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
212 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | DIXTON GRANT MICHAEL | officer | Withheld for tax | 35,056 | 94,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | DIXTON GRANT MICHAEL | officer | Option exercise | 79,132 | 130,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | DIXTON GRANT MICHAEL | officer | Option exercise | 79,132 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Anderson Sterling | director | Withheld for tax | 48,820 | 59,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Anderson Sterling | director | Option exercise | 95,951 | 108,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Anderson Sterling | director | Option exercise | 95,951 | 95,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 91,843 | 629,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Reuss Mark L | director | Option exercise | 71,079 | 163,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 69,564 | 606,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 48,659 | 586,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Reuss Mark L | director | Option exercise | 71,079 | 71,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 91,843 | 73,474 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 69,564 | 55,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 48,659 | 38,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 49,495 | 641,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 49,495 | 87,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 83,476 | 675,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 8,896 | 601,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 6,867 | 599,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 83,476 | 125,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 6,867 | 165,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 8,896 | 137,082 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 20,582 | 612,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 20,582 | 172,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 23,000 | 615,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 23,000 | 192,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 59,762 | 727,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 59,762 | 215,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 91,843 | 867,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 69,564 | 845,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 48,659 | 824,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 91,843 | 275,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 69,564 | 208,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Barra Mary T | director | Option exercise | 48,659 | 145,978 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Harvey Rory | officer | Option exercise | 5,652 | 131,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Harvey Rory | officer | Option exercise | 5,652 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Reuss Mark L | director | Option exercise | 147,569 | 490,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Reuss Mark L | director | Option exercise | 82,489 | 425,448 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Reuss Mark L | director | Option exercise | 147,569 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Reuss Mark L | director | Option exercise | 82,489 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | sale | 2026-02-19 | 2026-01-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-22 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-06 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.