GLXYGalaxy DigitalFinancial Services · Financial - Capital Marketsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.27 · now $22.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GLXY has typically landed between $14.53 and $34.06 — a range of −34.8% to +52.9% from the issuance price $22.27.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,245 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-05-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GLXY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$14.53worst · -34.8%$34.06best · +52.9%
  • now $22.27 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.1 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.19–$26.02
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.53–$34.06
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,245 windows spanning 2006-05-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-08-07−88.6%−88.6%+0.0%
2010-11-15−85.1%−88.0%+0.0%
2009-11-05−84.6%−84.6%+0.0%
3 best
2006-12-04+173.1%+0.0%+252.2%
2020-07-16+139.5%+0.0%+139.5%
2021-03-12+135.5%−0.1%+135.5%

2,245 overlapping windows · 2006-05-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
58%
+9.3%
n=12
Feb
64%
+14.4%
n=11
Mar
55%
+6.5%
n=11
Apr
42%
+10.9%
n=12
May
55%
−7.6%
n=11
Jun
58%
−1.0%
n=12
Jul
62%
+12.0%
n=13
Aug
31%
−2.5%
n=13
Sep
23%
−8.3%
n=13
Oct
45%
+2.0%
n=11
Nov
27%
−5.2%
n=11
Dec
15%
−5.2%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$43$172026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $135K — Friedrich Matthew W.2026-08-12: 1 insider purchase, $258K — DEASON DOUGLAS R2026-08-10: 1 insider purchase, $100K — BANDROWCZAK STEVEN JOHN2026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $179K — Rico Robert Daniel2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $650K — Rico Robert Daniel2026-06-09: 1 insider sale, $601K — Rico Robert Daniel2026-05-22: 2 insider sales, $7.2M — DAFFEY MICHAEL D …2026-05-21: 2 insider sales, $7.2M — DAFFEY MICHAEL D …2026-02-04: 3 insider purchases, $520K — DEASON DOUGLAS R …2025-11-13: 1 insider purchase, $211K — DEASON DOUGLAS R2025-11-12: 1 insider purchase, $243K — DEASON DOUGLAS R2025-11-11: 1 insider purchase, $277K — DEASON DOUGLAS R2025-11-07: 5 insider purchases, $296K — DEASON DOUGLAS R …2025-10-10: 4 insider sales, $224.2M — Galaxy Group Investments LLC, Novogratz Michael, Ferraro Christopher C …2025-09-12: 1 insider sale, $994K — Adams Medina Rhonda2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Adams Medina Rhonda2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $10.9M2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $2.6M2025-10: 4 open-market sales, $224.2M2025-11: 8 open-market purchases, $1.0M2026-02: 3 open-market purchases, $520K2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $14.4M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $359K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $179K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $135K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Friedrich Matthew W. — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DEASON DOUGLAS R — Purchase on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BANDROWCZAK STEVEN JOHN — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed same dayofficer Rico Robert Daniel — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Rico Robert Daniel — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rico Robert Daniel — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DAFFEY MICHAEL D — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed same daydirector DAFFEY MICHAEL D — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed same daydirector DAFFEY MICHAEL D — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed same daydirector DAFFEY MICHAEL D — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed same daydirector DEASON DOUGLAS R — Purchase on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DEASON DOUGLAS R — Purchase on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DEASON DOUGLAS R — Purchase on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DEASON DOUGLAS R — Purchase on 2025-11-13, filed same daydirector DEASON DOUGLAS R — Purchase on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DEASON DOUGLAS R — Purchase on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DEASON DOUGLAS R — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector DEASON DOUGLAS R — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector DEASON DOUGLAS R — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector DEASON DOUGLAS R — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector DEASON DOUGLAS R — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Galaxy Group Investments LLC — Sale on 2025-10-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Novogratz Michael — Sale on 2025-10-10, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Ferraro Christopher C — Sale on 2025-10-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Novogratz Michael — Sale on 2025-10-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Adams Medina Rhonda — Sale on 2025-09-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Adams Medina Rhonda — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Friedrich Matthew W.officerSale4,993 @ $27.03$135K−1.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open275,782Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorPurchase12,000 @ $21.54$258K+20.3% of holding+16.8%not yet — horizon still open71,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10BANDROWCZAK STEVEN JOHNdirectorPurchase5,100 @ $19.63$100K+15.0% of holding+30.2%not yet — horizon still open39,186Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-06Rico Robert DanielofficerSale9,095 @ $19.66$179K−12.4% of holding+34.5%not yet — horizon still open64,428Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-15Rico Robert DanielofficerSale19,000 @ $34.22$650K−29.7% of holding−33.4%not yet — horizon still open44,934Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-09Rico Robert DanielofficerSale19,000 @ $31.62$601K−26.8% of holding−26.6%not yet — horizon still open51,934Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-22DAFFEY MICHAEL DdirectorSale160,765 @ $28.66$4.6M−9.2% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open1,594,654Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-22DAFFEY MICHAEL DdirectorSale89,235 @ $29.27$2.6M−5.6% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open1,505,419Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-21DAFFEY MICHAEL DdirectorSale171,076 @ $28.66$4.9M−9.7% of holding+7.0%not yet — horizon still open1,584,343Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-21DAFFEY MICHAEL DdirectorSale78,924 @ $29.03$2.3M−5.0% of holding+7.0%not yet — horizon still open1,505,419Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-04DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $21.12$211K+20.4% of holding+4.0%−15.7%59,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $20.50$205K+25.6% of holding+4.0%−15.7%49,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $20.75$104K+14.7% of holding+4.0%−15.7%39,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-13DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorPurchase7,000 @ $30.18$211K+25.9% of holding−11.2%−8.2%34,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-12DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorPurchase8,000 @ $30.42$243K+42.1% of holding−14.2%−14.1%27,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorPurchase9,000 @ $30.82$277K+90.0% of holding−3.8%−5.9%19,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $31.56$63K+50.0% of holding−8.5%−11.2%6,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-07DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $29.25$59K+33.3% of holding−8.5%−11.2%8,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-07DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $29.15$58K+100.0% of holding−8.5%−11.2%4,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-07DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $29.05$58K+25.0% of holding−8.5%−11.2%10,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-07DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $28.95$58Kownership Δ n/a−8.5%−11.2%2,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-10Galaxy Group Investments LLCtenPercentOwnerSale2,477,055 @ $36.00$89.2M−100.0% of holding−23.6%−46.7%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-10Novogratz MichaeldirectorSale2,477,055 @ $36.00$89.2M−100.0% of holding−23.6%−46.7%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-10Ferraro Christopher CofficerSale750,000 @ $36.00$27.0M−52.2% of holding−23.6%−46.7%687,921Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-10Novogratz MichaeldirectorSale522,945 @ $36.00$18.8M−100.0% of holding−23.6%−46.7%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-12Adams Medina RhondadirectorSale33,333 @ $29.83$994K−22.9% of holding+37.7%−24.6%112,053Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-03Adams Medina RhondadirectorSale67,500 @ $24.50$1.7M−31.7% of holding+45.5%−13.3%145,386Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-08Tavoso RicharddirectorSale50,000 @ $28.28$1.4M−11.1% of holding−6.4%−33.4%400,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-06Brown Erin ElizabethofficerSale175,000 @ $27.16$4.8M−46.9% of holding−16.4%−46.1%198,088Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-06Brown Erin ElizabethofficerSale175,000 @ $26.81$4.7M−31.9% of holding−16.4%−46.1%373,088Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09Novogratz MichaeldirectorSale4,380,967 @ $18.10$79.3M−100.0% of holding−7.2%+10.0%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09Galaxy Group Investments LLCtenPercentOwnerSale4,380,967 @ $18.10$79.3M−100.0% of holding−7.2%+10.0%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-29Novogratz MichaeldirectorSale3,372,875 @ $18.10$61.0M−100.0% of holding+6.7%+18.0%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-29Galaxy Group Investments LLCtenPercentOwnerSale3,372,875 @ $18.10$61.0M−100.0% of holding+6.7%+18.0%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-29Ferraro Christopher CofficerSale1,250,000 @ $18.10$22.6M−46.5% of holding+6.7%+18.0%1,437,921Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-29Brown Erin ElizabethofficerSale353,956 @ $18.10$6.4M−64.1% of holding+6.7%+18.0%198,088Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-29Siegel Andrew NofficerSale223,169 @ $18.10$4.0M−31.7% of holding+6.7%+18.0%479,896Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-20Brown Erin ElizabethofficerSale87,704 @ $22.17$1.9M−17.9% of holding−14.5%+4.8%402,591Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

127 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Friedrich Matthew W.officerWithheld for tax30,630280,775Form 4
2026-09-01Novogratz MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax4,683440,338Form 4
2026-09-01Brown Erin ElizabethofficerWithheld for tax1,951236,250Form 4
2026-08-18Ferraro Christopher CofficerOption exercise50,000958,292Form 4
2026-08-18Ferraro Christopher CofficerOption exercise50,000900,000Form 4
2026-08-10Ferraro Christopher CofficerOption exercise50,000908,292Form 4
2026-08-10Ferraro Christopher CofficerOption exercise50,000950,000Form 4
2026-08-06Paquette AnthonyofficerOption exercise75,000505,777Form 4
2026-08-06Rico Robert DanielofficerOption exercise18,78464,428Form 4
2026-08-06Rico Robert DanielofficerOption exercise9,09573,523Form 4
2026-08-06Rico Robert DanielofficerOption exercise71045,644Form 4
2026-08-06Rico Robert DanielofficerOption exercise18,7849,678Form 4
2026-08-06Rico Robert DanielofficerOption exercise7100Form 4
2026-08-06Paquette AnthonyofficerOption exercise75,000225,000Form 4
2026-08-06Rico Robert DanielofficerOption exercise9,09518,190Form 4
2026-08-06DAFFEY MICHAEL DdirectorAward / grant7,8661,513,285Form 4
2026-08-06Adams Medina RhondadirectorAward / grant7,866119,919Form 4
2026-08-06BANDROWCZAK STEVEN JOHNdirectorAward / grant34,08634,086Form 4
2026-08-06DAFFEY MICHAEL DdirectorAward / grant7,8661,513,285Form 4
2026-08-06DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorAward / grant7,86631,348Form 4
2026-08-06Dietze Jane AdirectorAward / grant7,86687,930Form 4
2026-08-06DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorAward / grant7,86631,348Form 4
2026-08-06Dietze Jane AdirectorAward / grant7,86687,930Form 4
2026-08-06BANDROWCZAK STEVEN JOHNdirectorAward / grant34,08634,086Form 4
2026-08-06Koutsouras BilldirectorAward / grant7,866170,752Form 4
2026-08-06Adams Medina RhondadirectorAward / grant7,866119,919Form 4
2026-08-06DAFFEY MICHAEL DdirectorAward / grant7,8661,513,285Form 4
2026-08-06Koutsouras BilldirectorAward / grant7,866170,752Form 4
2026-08-06Dietze Jane AdirectorAward / grant7,86687,930Form 4
2026-08-06BANDROWCZAK STEVEN JOHNdirectorAward / grant34,08634,086Form 4
2026-08-06Koutsouras BilldirectorAward / grant7,866170,752Form 4
2026-08-06Adams Medina RhondadirectorAward / grant7,866119,919Form 4
2026-08-06Koutsouras BilldirectorAward / grant7,866170,752Form 4
2026-08-06Adams Medina RhondadirectorAward / grant7,866119,919Form 4
2026-08-06BANDROWCZAK STEVEN JOHNdirectorAward / grant34,08634,086Form 4
2026-08-06DAFFEY MICHAEL DdirectorAward / grant7,8661,513,285Form 4
2026-08-06DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorAward / grant7,86631,348Form 4
2026-08-06Dietze Jane AdirectorAward / grant7,86687,930Form 4
2026-08-06DEASON DOUGLAS RdirectorAward / grant7,86631,348Form 4
2026-06-15Rico Robert DanielofficerOption exercise12,00063,934Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.