Issued 2026-09-25 at $156.74 · now $156.74 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, GLW has typically landed between $137.12 and $189.35 — a range of −12.5% to +20.8% from the issuance price $156.74.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($156.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GLW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $156.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $156.74 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $161.02 (+2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $150.89–$171.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $137.12–$189.35
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-29 | −51.5% | −51.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | −47.1% | −51.4% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-26 | −43.0% | −43.0% | +15.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-26 | +69.0% | +0.0% | +69.0% |
| 2026-01-23 | +62.5% | +0.0% | +62.5% |
| 2009-03-05 | +58.2% | −1.0% | +58.2% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$23.53
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$71.83
- Analyst target · range $130.00–$270.00$180.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$156.74
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Gullo Michelle L | officer | Sale | 9,874 @ $152.29 | $1.5M | −51.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,384 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | STEVERSON LEWIS A | officer | Sale | 13,100 @ $151.29 | $2.0M | −46.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,052 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | WEEKS WENDELL P | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $186.46 | $18.6M | −9.9% of holding | +7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 908,353 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Amin Jaymin | officer | Sale | 27,395 @ $192.14 | $5.3M | −22.5% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Nelson Avery H III | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $195.93 | $3.9M | −22.2% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,059 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Verkleeren Ronald L | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $207.77 | $2.1M | −17.2% of holding | −13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Seetharam Soumya | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $206.23 | $4.1M | −43.9% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,570 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Zhang John Z | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $198.34 | $2.0M | −66.1% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,138 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | TILLMAN MICHAUNE D | officer | Sale | 3,260 @ $207.02 | $675K | −24.3% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | STEVERSON LEWIS A | officer | Sale | 27,750 @ $196.06 | $5.4M | −49.6% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,152 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Becker Stefan | officer | Sale | 21,000 @ $188.08 | $3.9M | −74.3% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,263 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Gullo Michelle L | officer | Sale | 5,315 @ $189.03 | $1.0M | −12.4% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,636 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-07 | Schlesinger Edward A | officer | Sale | 22,562 @ $186.08 | $4.2M | −25.7% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,264 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | Zhang John Z | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $184.67 | $2.8M | −49.8% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,138 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-26 | WEEKS WENDELL P | director | Sale | 137,514 @ $155.37 | $21.4M | −15.5% of holding | −1.0% | −10.6% | 750,585 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Gullo Michelle L | officer | Sale | 587 @ $131.11 | $77K | −1.6% of holding | −0.9% | +16.3% | 36,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-12 | Zhang John Z | officer | Sale | 1,531 @ $133.75 | $205K | −100.0% of holding | +2.4% | +12.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-12 | Gullo Michelle L | officer | Sale | 44 @ $135.83 | $6K | −100.0% of holding | +2.4% | +12.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Nelson Avery H III | officer | Sale | 1,583 @ $128.74 | $204K | −2.6% of holding | +1.6% | +6.7% | 59,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | STEVERSON LEWIS A | officer | Sale | 15,366 @ $130.22 | $2.0M | −81.6% of holding | +5.3% | +18.9% | 3,461 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Kammerud Jordana Daryl | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $127.67 | $3.8M | −91.5% of holding | +3.0% | +9.9% | 2,772 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-09 | Musser Eric S | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $130.25 | $2.0M | −75.3% of holding | +3.0% | +9.9% | 4,926 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-09 | Nelson Avery H III | officer | Sale | 6,262 @ $129.79 | $813K | −9.3% of holding | +3.0% | +9.9% | 61,371 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Fang Li | officer | Sale | 9,797 @ $113.51 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | +14.6% | +31.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Musser Eric S | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $110.00 | $2.8M | −55.6% of holding | +33.0% | +33.9% | 19,926 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | O'Day Michael Paul | officer | Sale | 5,051 @ $110.52 | $558K | −14.4% of holding | +33.0% | +33.9% | 29,915 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-29 | Schlesinger Edward A | officer | Sale | 21,104 @ $104.55 | $2.2M | −27.8% of holding | +54.7% | +26.5% | 54,780 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-29 | Gullo Michelle L | officer | Sale | 44 @ $102.39 | $5K | −100.0% of holding | +54.7% | +26.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
272 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | BURNS STEPHANIE | director | Award / grant | 161 | 26,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ferguson Roger W. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 161 | 16,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | CUMMINGS ROBERT F JR | director | Award / grant | 161 | 130,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Martin Kevin J | director | Award / grant | 137 | 20,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Gullo Michelle L | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,378 | 19,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | WEEKS WENDELL P | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 1,008,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | WEEKS WENDELL P | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 49,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Amin Jaymin | officer | Option exercise | 7,917 | 121,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Amin Jaymin | officer | Option exercise | 7,917 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Fang Li | officer | Option exercise | 8,725 | 8,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Fang Li | officer | Option exercise | 8,725 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Becker Stefan | officer | Gift | 126 | 7,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | TILLMAN MICHAUNE D | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,946 | 13,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Becker Stefan | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,795 | 28,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Becker Stefan | officer | Option exercise | 619 | 29,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Becker Stefan | officer | Option exercise | 674 | 28,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Becker Stefan | officer | Option exercise | 429 | 8,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Becker Stefan | officer | Option exercise | 429 | 31,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Becker Stefan | officer | Option exercise | 1,073 | 30,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Becker Stefan | officer | Option exercise | 1,073 | 22,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Becker Stefan | officer | Option exercise | 674 | 14,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Becker Stefan | officer | Option exercise | 619 | 12,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-28 | O'Day Michael Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,496 | 39,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | WEEKS WENDELL P | director | Withheld for tax | 165,622 | 908,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | STEVERSON LEWIS A | officer | Withheld for tax | 49,786 | 55,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Zhang John Z | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,433 | 30,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Schlesinger Edward A | officer | Withheld for tax | 30,715 | 87,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Nelson Avery H III | officer | Withheld for tax | 28,740 | 90,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Amin Jaymin | officer | Withheld for tax | 24,796 | 113,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Becker Stefan | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,861 | 28,263 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Verkleeren Ronald L | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,843 | 58,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Seetharam Soumya | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,622 | 45,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Kammerud Jordana Daryl | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,018 | 12,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | O'Day Michael Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,410 | 42,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Gullo Michelle L | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,198 | 42,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Zhang John Z | officer | Option exercise | 42,687 | 42,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Gullo Michelle L | officer | Option exercise | 3,793 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | WEEKS WENDELL P | director | Option exercise | 104,474 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Gullo Michelle L | officer | Option exercise | 9,356 | 45,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Zhang John Z | officer | Option exercise | 18,884 | 61,571 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $100–250K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | House | purchase | 2026-04-21 | 2026-03-19 | $15–50K |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | House | purchase | 2026-04-21 | 2026-03-19 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-07-09 | 2025-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2025-06-11 | 2025-05-22 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2025-06-11 | 2025-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | purchase | 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-14 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-17 | $15–50K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-09 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.