Issued 2026-09-25 at $11.77 · now $11.77 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, GLUE has typically landed between $7.96 and $17.72 — a range of −32.4% to +50.6% from the issuance price $11.77.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,298 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-24 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($11.77) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GLUE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $11.77 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.77 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.44 (-2.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.54–$13.34
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.96–$17.72
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,298 windows spanning 2021-06-24 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-09-26 | −60.9% | −60.9% | +0.0% |
| 2023-09-25 | −57.5% | −57.5% | +5.3% |
| 2023-09-22 | −55.8% | −55.8% | +6.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-09-12 | +116.2% | +0.0% | +116.2% |
| 2023-12-06 | +112.1% | +0.0% | +112.1% |
| 2023-12-07 | +110.1% | +0.0% | +110.1% |
1,298 overlapping windows · 2021-06-24 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- October 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study of Oral MRT-2359 With Apalutamide in Prostate Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
20%
−4.0%
n=5
Feb
40%
−3.2%
n=5
Mar
40%
+2.9%
n=5
Apr
40%
−13.3%
n=5
May
40%
−0.2%
n=5
Jun
60%
+7.8%
n=5
Jul
67%
+0.7%
n=6
Aug
33%
+5.6%
n=6
Sep
33%
−4.7%
n=6
Oct
80%
+24.5%
n=5
Nov
40%
+2.8%
n=5
Dec
40%
+8.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Warmuth Markus | director | Sale | 9,500 @ $23.18 | $220K | −1.6% of holding | −36.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 585,038 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Sale | 4,351 @ $23.38 | $102K | −6.5% of holding | −35.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,371 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Townson Sharon | officer | Sale | 5,600 @ $23.25 | $130K | −7.6% of holding | −33.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,245 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Townson Sharon | officer | Sale | 400 @ $24.13 | $10K | −0.6% of holding | −33.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,845 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Janku Filip | officer | Sale | 5,407 @ $24.50 | $132K | −8.2% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,612 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Manning Anthony M. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $23.11 | $231K | −100.0% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Janku Filip | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $22.95 | $138K | −9.1% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,992 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Janku Filip | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $21.42 | $643K | −33.3% of holding | +8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,992 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Janku Filip | officer | Sale | 11,845 @ $20.22 | $240K | −16.5% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,992 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Townson Sharon | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $20.00 | $60K | −4.2% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,845 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Sale | 2,175 @ $20.00 | $44K | −3.4% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,371 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Townson Sharon | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $19.00 | $57K | −4.2% of holding | +27.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,845 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Sale | 2,176 @ $19.00 | $41K | −3.4% of holding | +27.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,371 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Warmuth Markus | director | Sale | 4,998 @ $19.41 | $97K | −0.8% of holding | +23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 595,006 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Warmuth Markus | director | Sale | 468 @ $19.73 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | +23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 594,538 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Townson Sharon | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $19.87 | $119K | −8.1% of holding | +23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,845 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Sale | 2,175 @ $20.00 | $44K | −3.4% of holding | +18.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,371 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Sale | 2,176 @ $19.00 | $41K | −3.4% of holding | +12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,371 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Manning Anthony M. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $18.01 | $180K | −100.0% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Warmuth Markus | director | Sale | 5,467 @ $18.92 | $103K | −0.9% of holding | −11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 600,004 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Warmuth Markus | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $17.64 | $141K | −1.3% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 605,471 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Nickson Philip | officer | Sale | 5,845 @ $17.69 | $103K | −9.6% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Dunn Edmund | officer | Sale | 139 @ $17.96 | $2K | −0.6% of holding | −4.2% | −35.9% | 22,554 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Warmuth Markus | director | Sale | 5,466 @ $17.92 | $98K | −0.9% of holding | −6.1% | −37.0% | 613,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Dunn Edmund | officer | Sale | 536 @ $17.50 | $9K | −2.3% of holding | −6.1% | −37.0% | 22,693 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Dunn Edmund | officer | Sale | 25,164 @ $18.10 | $456K | −52.6% of holding | −4.9% | −37.4% | 22,693 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Janku Filip | officer | Sale | 9,189 @ $19.50 | $179K | −12.2% of holding | −20.5% | −41.8% | 65,837 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Warmuth Markus | director | Sale | 3,707 @ $23.24 | $86K | −0.6% of holding | −16.2% | −11.1% | 620,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Warmuth Markus | director | Sale | 1,450 @ $23.88 | $35K | −0.2% of holding | −16.2% | −11.1% | 619,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Warmuth Markus | director | Sale | 309 @ $24.57 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | −16.2% | −11.1% | 618,937 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Warmuth Markus | director | Sale | 10,135 @ $15.17 | $154K | −1.6% of holding | +35.8% | +58.1% | 624,403 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Janku Filip | officer | Sale | 3,155 @ $15.17 | $48K | −4.0% of holding | +35.8% | +58.1% | 75,026 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Nickson Philip | officer | Sale | 3,155 @ $15.17 | $48K | −4.9% of holding | +35.8% | +58.1% | 60,845 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Townson Sharon | officer | Sale | 3,155 @ $15.17 | $48K | −4.4% of holding | +35.8% | +58.1% | 67,845 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Sale | 2,629 @ $15.17 | $40K | −4.0% of holding | +35.8% | +58.1% | 62,371 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-05 | Dunn Edmund | officer | Sale | 1,039 @ $15.17 | $16K | −4.4% of holding | +35.8% | +58.1% | 22,693 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-03 | Dunn Edmund | officer | Sale | 2,062 @ $4.45 | $9K | −8.0% of holding | −0.3% | +217.1% | 23,732 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Leo Chandra P. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.84 | $58K | ownership Δ n/a | −1.8% | −7.6% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-29 | Versant Venture Capital VI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 52,305 @ $9.08 | $475K | −3.2% of holding | −5.7% | −45.0% | 1,589,053 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-29 | Versant Venture Capital VI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 15,600 @ $9.41 | $147K | −1.0% of holding | −5.7% | −45.0% | 1,573,453 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-10-28 | Versant Venture Capital VI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 89,990 @ $9.66 | $869K | −4.3% of holding | +72.1% | +3.1% | 2,007,948 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-20 | Versant Venture Capital VI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,132,566 @ $6.53 | $7.4M | −18.2% of holding | −18.6% | −16.0% | 5,099,336 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-13 | Versant Venture Capital VI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,269 @ $6.16 | $57K | −0.1% of holding | −23.4% | +8.6% | 6,231,902 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-09-12 | Versant Venture Capital VI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 16,047 @ $6.00 | $96K | −0.3% of holding | −21.3% | +10.9% | 6,241,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-09-11 | Versant Venture Capital VI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 541,897 @ $6.00 | $3.3M | −8.0% of holding | −26.4% | +5.2% | 6,257,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-05 | Dunn Edmund | officer | Sale | 1,610 @ $3.83 | $6K | −10.4% of holding | +9.5% | +81.3% | 13,944 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-03 | Dunn Edmund | officer | Sale | 1,207 @ $4.04 | $5K | −7.2% of holding | −7.1% | +132.6% | 15,554 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
106 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 4,351 | 66,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 4,351 | 26,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Townson Sharon | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 73,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Townson Sharon | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 197,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Behbahani Ali | director | Other acquisition | 1,000,000 | 6,692,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Behbahani Ali | director | Other acquisition | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Behbahani Ali | director | Other acquisition | 15,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Janku Filip | officer | Option exercise | 5,407 | 66,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Janku Filip | officer | Option exercise | 5,407 | 81,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Janku Filip | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 65,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Manning Anthony M. | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Manning Anthony M. | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 2,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Janku Filip | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Janku Filip | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 89,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Janku Filip | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 66,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Janku Filip | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 71,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Townson Sharon | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 70,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 2,175 | 64,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Janku Filip | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 96,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 2,175 | 31,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Townson Sharon | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 203,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Townson Sharon | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 70,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 2,176 | 64,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 2,176 | 33,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Townson Sharon | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 206,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Behbahani Ali | director | Award / grant | 25,800 | 25,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Blackwell Kimberly | director | Award / grant | 25,800 | 25,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hughes Eric A | director | Award / grant | 25,800 | 25,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Manning Anthony M. | director | Award / grant | 25,800 | 25,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | SCHIFF ANDREW N | director | Award / grant | 25,800 | 25,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Siu Christine | director | Award / grant | 25,800 | 25,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Skvarka Jan | director | Award / grant | 25,800 | 25,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Townson Sharon | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 73,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Townson Sharon | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 209,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 2,175 | 64,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 2,175 | 35,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 2,176 | 64,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Champoux Jennifer | officer | Option exercise | 2,176 | 37,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Manning Anthony M. | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Manning Anthony M. | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 12,100 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.