Issued 2026-09-16 at $172.98 · now $172.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GL has typically landed between $158.85 and $192.08 — a range of −8.2% to +11.0% from the issuance price $172.98.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($172.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $172.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $172.98 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $175.32 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $169.4–$181.25
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $158.85–$192.08
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-03-12 | −60.4% | −60.4% | +0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | −51.8% | −57.5% | +1.7% |
| 2024-03-13 | −50.3% | −58.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-04-11 | +75.9% | +0.0% | +82.0% |
| 2009-03-06 | +71.2% | +0.0% | +71.2% |
| 2009-03-05 | +69.5% | −0.2% | +69.5% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$13.5B
market cap
$8.06
EPS (TTM)
21.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-28
next earnings
Revenue$6.0B
'20'25
Net income$1.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr19.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr19.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.44
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$333.34
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$132.04
- Analyst target · range $157.00–$200.00$181.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$172.98
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+0.0%
n=18
Feb
63%
−0.7%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
68%
+1.7%
n=19
May
37%
+1.7%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.2%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.8%
n=19
Aug
42%
+0.4%
n=19
Sep
58%
+0.1%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.8%
n=18
Nov
89%
+3.6%
n=18
Dec
78%
+2.1%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | MITCHELL ROBERT BRIAN | officer | Sale | 11,454 @ $182.77 | $2.1M | −37.0% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,527 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | MITCHELL ROBERT BRIAN | officer | Sale | 10,529 @ $183.83 | $1.9M | −53.9% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,998 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | MITCHELL ROBERT BRIAN | officer | Sale | 1,017 @ $184.75 | $188K | −11.3% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,981 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Darden James Matthew | director | Sale | 49,600 @ $182.43 | $9.0M | −45.7% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,851 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Darden James Matthew | director | Sale | 400 @ $183.36 | $73K | −0.7% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,451 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Sale | 10,720 @ $179.30 | $1.9M | −15.0% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,848 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-30 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Sale | 4,840 @ $180.08 | $872K | −8.0% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,008 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-30 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Sale | 2,790 @ $181.81 | $507K | −5.2% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,568 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-30 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Sale | 2,650 @ $181.23 | $480K | −4.7% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,358 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-29 | MAJORS MICHAEL CLAY | officer | Sale | 33,500 @ $178.56 | $6.0M | −37.0% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,018 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | MAJORS MICHAEL CLAY | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $179.35 | $628K | −6.1% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Sale | 12,303 @ $178.73 | $2.2M | −18.5% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,365 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Sale | 9,550 @ $178.06 | $1.7M | −12.5% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Sale | 3,797 @ $179.42 | $681K | −7.0% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,568 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Skarjune Dolores L | officer | Sale | 1,850 @ $179.18 | $331K | −11.9% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,697 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-25 | Alston Cheryl | director | Sale | 2,750 @ $177.56 | $488K | −11.1% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,129 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Alston Cheryl | director | Sale | 2,564 @ $180.57 | $463K | −13.4% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,621 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Alston Cheryl | director | Sale | 1,934 @ $180.13 | $348K | −9.2% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,185 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Alston Cheryl | director | Sale | 1,010 @ $178.71 | $180K | −4.6% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,119 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Zorn Rebecca E | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $170.10 | $340K | −10.1% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,797 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Sale | 5,634 @ $166.93 | $940K | −9.4% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,020 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Sale | 4,366 @ $166.36 | $726K | −6.8% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,654 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Skarjune Dolores L | officer | Sale | 2,198 @ $165.58 | $364K | −12.3% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,674 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Skarjune Dolores L | officer | Sale | 1,103 @ $166.51 | $184K | −7.0% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,571 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Skarjune Dolores L | officer | Sale | 874 @ $167.25 | $146K | −6.0% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,697 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Sale | 7,370 @ $165.13 | $1.2M | −12.0% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,020 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Sale | 2,630 @ $164.20 | $432K | −4.1% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,390 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | MITCHELL ROBERT BRIAN | officer | Sale | 500 @ $155.55 | $78K | −1.1% of holding | +17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,719 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-29 | MITCHELL ROBERT BRIAN | officer | Sale | 100 @ $155.57 | $16K | −0.2% of holding | +17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,619 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Sale | 18,410 @ $156.65 | $2.9M | −24.9% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,610 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Sale | 7,936 @ $156.59 | $1.2M | −13.6% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,496 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Sale | 1,590 @ $157.05 | $250K | −2.9% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,020 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Sale | 11,903 @ $156.61 | $1.9M | −19.7% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,432 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Sale | 13,876 @ $153.59 | $2.1M | −22.8% of holding | +7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,096 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Sale | 1,761 @ $154.16 | $271K | −3.7% of holding | +7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,335 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Sale | 11,349 @ $152.01 | $1.7M | −21.5% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,413 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Sale | 441 @ $152.41 | $67K | −1.1% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,972 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | HENRIE MICHAEL SHANE | officer | Sale | 1,645 @ $155.01 | $255K | −29.4% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,954 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | HENRIE MICHAEL SHANE | officer | Sale | 505 @ $155.78 | $79K | −12.8% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,449 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Darden James Matthew | director | Sale | 12,905 @ $153.53 | $2.0M | −16.0% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,565 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Sale | 11,759 @ $153.56 | $1.8M | −17.6% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,115 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Darden James Matthew | director | Sale | 9,114 @ $154.29 | $1.4M | −13.5% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Sale | 1,095 @ $154.07 | $169K | −2.0% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,020 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Sale | 2,146 @ $153.48 | $329K | −3.8% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,020 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Sale | 8,720 @ $153.68 | $1.3M | −13.6% of holding | −6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,300 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Sale | 1,280 @ $154.23 | $197K | −2.3% of holding | −6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,020 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Darden James Matthew | director | Sale | 4,663 @ $153.88 | $718K | −7.4% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | MAJORS MICHAEL CLAY | officer | Sale | 17,251 @ $153.69 | $2.7M | −20.9% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,102 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | MAJORS MICHAEL CLAY | officer | Sale | 11,584 @ $154.43 | $1.8M | −17.8% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,518 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | MAJORS MICHAEL CLAY | officer | Sale | 5,165 @ $152.84 | $789K | −5.9% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,353 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | HENRIE MICHAEL SHANE | officer | Sale | 3,065 @ $154.64 | $474K | −47.1% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,449 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-24 | HENRIE MICHAEL SHANE | officer | Sale | 526 @ $154.35 | $81K | −13.2% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,449 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Zorn Rebecca E | officer | Sale | 4,724 @ $136.71 | $646K | −19.3% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,747 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-31 | Zorn Rebecca E | officer | Sale | 2,126 @ $135.66 | $288K | −8.0% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,471 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-31 | Zorn Rebecca E | officer | Sale | 1,950 @ $137.40 | $268K | −9.9% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,797 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | Darden James Matthew | director | Sale | 18,318 @ $145.10 | $2.7M | −26.4% of holding | +2.8% | +8.0% | 51,093 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Hensley Robert Edward | officer | Sale | 2,569 @ $145.04 | $373K | −17.2% of holding | +0.1% | +6.1% | 12,384 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Haworth Jennifer Allison | officer | Sale | 8,781 @ $145.22 | $1.3M | −27.2% of holding | +1.6% | +6.7% | 23,514 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Darden James Matthew | director | Sale | 6,471 @ $144.14 | $933K | −10.2% of holding | +1.6% | +6.7% | 56,916 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Darden James Matthew | director | Sale | 3,056 @ $144.76 | $442K | −5.4% of holding | +1.6% | +6.7% | 53,860 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
191 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | MITCHELL ROBERT BRIAN | officer | Option exercise | 23,000 | 30,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | MITCHELL ROBERT BRIAN | officer | Option exercise | 23,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Darden James Matthew | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 108,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Darden James Matthew | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 11,000 | 71,568 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 60,568 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 11,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | MAJORS MICHAEL CLAY | officer | Option exercise | 37,000 | 90,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | MAJORS MICHAEL CLAY | officer | Option exercise | 37,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 14,100 | 64,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 11,550 | 76,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 11,550 | 11,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 14,100 | 11,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Skarjune Dolores L | officer | Option exercise | 1,850 | 15,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Skarjune Dolores L | officer | Option exercise | 1,850 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Alston Cheryl | director | Option exercise | 14,017 | 24,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Alston Cheryl | director | Option exercise | 14,017 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Zorn Rebecca E | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 19,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Zorn Rebecca E | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 14,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 64,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Skarjune Dolores L | officer | Option exercise | 2,475 | 16,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Skarjune Dolores L | officer | Option exercise | 1,700 | 17,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Skarjune Dolores L | officer | Option exercise | 1,700 | 1,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Skarjune Dolores L | officer | Option exercise | 2,475 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | MITCHELL ROBERT BRIAN | officer | Gift | 1,250 | 43,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 64,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | MITCHELL ROBERT BRIAN | officer | Gift | 320 | 45,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 74,020 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 58,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | SVOBODA FRANK M | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 60,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 60,972 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 52,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Kalmbach Thomas Peter | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-08-13 | 2025-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-07-09 | 2025-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Susan M. Collins | Senate | sale | 2024-09-13 | 2024-08-05 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Lois Frankel | House | sale | 2023-10-10 | 2023-09-08 | $1–15K |
| Lois Frankel | House | sale | 2023-06-24 | 2023-06-02 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.