GISGeneral Mills, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.81 · now $36.81 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GIS has typically landed between $33.67 and $40.32 — a range of −8.5% to +9.5% from the issuance price $36.81.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.81) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GIS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.81 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$33.67worst · -8.5%$40.32best · +9.5%
  • now $36.81 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.64 (-0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.19–$38.09
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.67–$40.32
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-02-24−20.4%−20.4%+0.0%
2026-02-13−19.9%−19.9%+0.0%
2026-02-12−19.7%−19.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+28.4%+0.0%+29.7%
2020-03-25+28.1%+0.0%+28.6%
2020-03-24+24.9%−1.2%+27.1%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$19.2B
market cap
$-0.18
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-23
next earnings
Revenue$18.4B
'21'26
Net income−$88M
'21'26
Free cash flow$1.6B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr-0.5%
'21'26
ROE · by yr-1.2%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr1.84
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $36.81$27.35$80.29
  • DCF (intrinsic)$76.64
  • Analyst target · range $31.00–$47.00$36.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$36.81

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
+0.3%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.5%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.0%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.5%
n=19
May
47%
−0.5%
n=19
Jun
42%
+0.2%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.0%
n=19
Aug
63%
+1.2%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
67%
+0.8%
n=18
Nov
56%
+0.6%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$48$322026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $340K — Williams-Roll Jacqueline2026-05-12: 2 insider sales, $619K — Williams-Roll Jacqueline, Fernandez Ricardo2025-12-19: 1 insider sale, $72K — Gallagher Paul Joseph2025-09-19: 1 insider sale, $200K — Williams-Roll Jacqueline2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $200K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $72K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $958K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Williams-Roll Jacqueline — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Williams-Roll Jacqueline — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Fernandez Ricardo — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gallagher Paul Joseph — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Williams-Roll Jacqueline — Sale on 2025-09-19, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-13Williams-Roll JacquelineofficerSale10,000 @ $33.97$340K−11.6% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open76,002Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12Williams-Roll JacquelineofficerSale10,000 @ $34.27$343K−10.4% of holding−0.9%not yet — horizon still open86,002Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-12Fernandez RicardoofficerSale7,995 @ $34.50$276K−11.4% of holding−0.9%not yet — horizon still open62,283Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-19Gallagher Paul JosephofficerSale1,500 @ $48.15$72K−3.0% of holding−7.0%−33.3%48,568Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-19Williams-Roll JacquelineofficerSale4,000 @ $50.04$200K−5.7% of holding−3.0%−23.1%66,593Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-15Sharma Pankaj MNofficerSale3,643 @ $54.12$197K−9.9% of holding−3.7%−25.3%33,073Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-07HARMENING JEFFREY LdirectorSale11,379 @ $65.00$740K−3.1% of holding+3.0%−33.9%353,346Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-20Gallagher Paul JosephofficerSale1,041 @ $64.50$67K−2.4% of holding−7.0%−23.3%42,117Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

208 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-30HENRY MARIAdirectorAward / grant84253,144Form 4
2026-08-30Uribe Jorge A.directorAward / grant74841,432Form 4
2026-08-30Bottarini JoandirectorAward / grant6542,052Form 4
2026-08-30MORIKIS JOHN GdirectorAward / grant65420,503Form 4
2026-08-30ODLAND STEPHEN AdirectorAward / grant62355,818Form 4
2026-08-30Uribe Jorge A.directorWithheld for tax16041,272Form 4
2026-08-01Bruce Kofi AdirectorWithheld for tax971256,345Form 4
2026-07-07Williams-Roll JacquelineofficerGift33776,339Form 4
2026-07-07Williams-Roll JacquelineofficerGift33767,955Form 4
2026-07-06Pallot Mark AofficerAward / grant2,07720,446Form 4
2026-07-06Pallot Mark AofficerAward / grant10,38310,383Form 4
2026-07-06Ness Jonathan DavidofficerAward / grant5,88420,498Form 4
2026-07-06Ness Jonathan DavidofficerAward / grant29,41629,416Form 4
2026-07-06Montemayor JaimeofficerAward / grant17,304179,672Form 4
2026-07-06Montemayor JaimeofficerAward / grant86,51886,518Form 4
2026-07-06McNabb Dana MdirectorAward / grant27,68692,881Form 4
2026-07-06McNabb Dana MdirectorAward / grant138,428138,428Form 4
2026-07-06Mascolo ElizabethofficerAward / grant6,57641,428Form 4
2026-07-06Mascolo ElizabethofficerAward / grant32,87732,877Form 4
2026-07-06HARMENING JEFFREY LdirectorAward / grant69,214454,169Form 4
2026-07-06HARMENING JEFFREY LdirectorAward / grant346,069346,069Form 4
2026-07-06Sharma Pankaj MNofficerAward / grant32,87732,877Form 4
2026-07-06THISSEN KAREN WILSONdirectorAward / grant11,76795,494Form 4
2026-07-06THISSEN KAREN WILSONdirectorAward / grant58,83258,832Form 4
2026-07-06Sharma Pankaj MNofficerAward / grant6,57647,045Form 4
2026-07-06Williams-Roll JacquelineofficerAward / grant44,98944,989Form 4
2026-07-06Shaffer Werner LanetteofficerAward / grant6,57638,043Form 4
2026-07-06Shaffer Werner LanetteofficerAward / grant32,87732,877Form 4
2026-07-06Saksena AsheeshofficerAward / grant13,06326,009Form 4
2026-07-06Saksena AsheeshofficerAward / grant58,83258,832Form 4
2026-07-06Bruce Kofi AdirectorAward / grant24,225257,316Form 4
2026-07-06Bruce Kofi AdirectorAward / grant121,125121,125Form 4
2026-07-06Fernandez RicardoofficerAward / grant6,57682,600Form 4
2026-07-06Fernandez RicardoofficerAward / grant32,87732,877Form 4
2026-07-06Williams-Roll JacquelineofficerAward / grant8,99868,292Form 4
2026-07-01Williams-Roll JacquelineofficerWithheld for tax13459,294Form 4
2026-06-30HARMENING JEFFREY LdirectorWithheld for tax14,335384,955Form 4
2026-06-30Montemayor JaimeofficerWithheld for tax3,154162,368Form 4
2026-06-30Bruce Kofi AdirectorWithheld for tax1,447233,091Form 4
2026-06-30Mascolo ElizabethofficerWithheld for tax1,05534,852Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-07-022026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.