Issued 2026-09-25 at $150.93 · now $150.93 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, GILD has typically landed between $138.49 and $168.98 — a range of −8.2% to +12.0% from the issuance price $150.93.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($150.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GILD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $150.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $150.93 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $152.63 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $146.47–$158.79
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $138.49–$168.98
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-11 | −23.5% | −23.5% | +1.7% |
| 2008-09-16 | −23.2% | −24.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-08-28 | −20.3% | −20.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2012-01-05 | +31.7% | +0.0% | +31.7% |
| 2012-01-04 | +30.2% | +0.0% | +30.2% |
| 2012-01-06 | +28.7% | −0.1% | +30.9% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study of Sacituzumab Govitecan-hziy and Pembrolizumab Versus Treatment of Physician's Choice in Patients With Triple Negative Breast Cancer Who Have Residual Invasive Disease After Surgery and Neoadjuvant Therapy (ASCENT-05/AFT-65 OptimICE-RD/GBG 119/NSABP B-63) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study With Various Immunotherapy Treatments in Participants With Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Zimberelimab and Domvanalimab in Combination With Chemotherapy Versus Pembrolizumab With Chemotherapy in Patients With Untreated Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- September 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study of Novel Treatment Combinations in Patients With Lung Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$160.5B
market cap
$7.34
EPS (TTM)
17.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$29.4B
'20'25
Net income$8.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$9.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr28.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr37.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.08
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$159.90
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$201.41
- Analyst target · range $120.00–$180.00$162.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$150.93
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+5.2%
n=18
Feb
42%
−0.7%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.8%
n=19
Apr
42%
−1.0%
n=19
May
47%
+0.2%
n=19
Jun
58%
+1.6%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.8%
n=19
Aug
47%
+1.0%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.7%
n=19
Oct
67%
+2.5%
n=18
Nov
61%
+2.1%
n=18
Dec
33%
−0.8%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $145.29 | $436K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 164,096 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $143.69 | $230K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 118,084 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 800 @ $144.46 | $116K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,284 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 600 @ $145.29 | $87K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,684 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 7,992 @ $148.36 | $1.2M | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 582,541 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 5,408 @ $149.38 | $808K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 577,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $147.51 | $236K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 590,533 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | WELTERS ANTHONY | director | Sale | 6,880 @ $148.82 | $1.0M | −34.8% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,894 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | WELTERS ANTHONY | director | Sale | 4,600 @ $148.82 | $685K | −26.3% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,894 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | WELTERS ANTHONY | director | Sale | 3,402 @ $148.24 | $504K | −14.7% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,774 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | WELTERS ANTHONY | director | Sale | 3,118 @ $148.31 | $462K | −15.1% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,494 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Bluestone Jeffrey | director | Sale | 1,816 @ $144.92 | $263K | −15.3% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Bluestone Jeffrey | director | Sale | 1,658 @ $145.73 | $242K | −14.1% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Bluestone Jeffrey | director | Sale | 1,165 @ $143.75 | $167K | −10.4% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Bluestone Jeffrey | director | Sale | 335 @ $146.26 | $49K | −3.2% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Bluestone Jeffrey | director | Sale | 26 @ $146.36 | $4K | −0.3% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 16,530 @ $137.37 | $2.3M | −11.3% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,704 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 11,470 @ $138.04 | $1.6M | −8.8% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,234 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $138.36 | $415K | −1.8% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 165,646 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 7,700 @ $130.80 | $1.0M | −1.3% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 592,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 6,700 @ $129.66 | $869K | −1.1% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 600,433 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 600 @ $131.34 | $79K | −0.1% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 592,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $129.93 | $390K | −1.7% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 168,646 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $129.92 | $390K | −2.4% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,234 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 11,900 @ $126.09 | $1.5M | −1.9% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 610,233 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 3,100 @ $127.08 | $394K | −0.5% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 607,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $125.40 | $376K | −1.7% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 171,646 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 1,480 @ $123.42 | $183K | −1.2% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,754 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 1,070 @ $124.00 | $133K | −0.9% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,684 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 450 @ $125.40 | $56K | −0.4% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,234 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 10,900 @ $131.10 | $1.4M | −1.7% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 621,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 3,062 @ $132.22 | $405K | −0.5% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 618,605 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 1,038 @ $132.97 | $138K | −0.2% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 617,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 11,177 @ $131.19 | $1.5M | −7.7% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,853 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 8,374 @ $132.23 | $1.1M | −6.2% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 126,479 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 7,749 @ $130.29 | $1.0M | −5.0% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 146,030 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $132.27 | $397K | −1.7% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,191 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 700 @ $132.75 | $93K | −0.6% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,779 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 6,950 @ $128.79 | $895K | −1.1% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 635,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 3,050 @ $130.01 | $397K | −0.5% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 632,567 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $140.96 | $423K | −1.7% of holding | −12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 176,191 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $140.96 | $423K | −2.3% of holding | −12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,779 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $136.82 | $1.4M | −1.5% of holding | −15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 642,567 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $144.23 | $433K | −2.2% of holding | −8.6% | −12.1% | 131,779 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $144.23 | $433K | −1.6% of holding | −8.6% | −12.1% | 179,191 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 6,419 @ $145.18 | $932K | −1.0% of holding | −0.3% | −13.7% | 642,408 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 3,481 @ $144.04 | $501K | −0.5% of holding | −0.3% | −13.7% | 648,827 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 100 @ $145.71 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | −0.3% | −13.7% | 642,308 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 18,405 @ $154.18 | $2.8M | −12.4% of holding | −5.4% | −19.5% | 129,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 9,395 @ $154.91 | $1.5M | −7.2% of holding | −5.4% | −19.5% | 120,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $154.43 | $463K | −1.8% of holding | −5.4% | −19.5% | 167,779 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 200 @ $155.62 | $31K | −0.2% of holding | −5.4% | −19.5% | 120,288 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 115,640 @ $150.00 | $17.3M | −15.9% of holding | −1.9% | −24.4% | 613,912 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 5,032 @ $139.54 | $702K | −0.9% of holding | +8.0% | −12.1% | 561,666 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 4,968 @ $140.24 | $697K | −0.9% of holding | +8.0% | −12.1% | 556,698 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 115,640 @ $135.00 | $15.6M | −16.9% of holding | +8.9% | −10.6% | 566,698 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Bluestone Jeffrey | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $123.50 | $618K | −35.9% of holding | +20.7% | −4.6% | 8,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $124.31 | $373K | −2.0% of holding | +29.4% | +3.4% | 150,503 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Mercier Johanna | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $124.31 | $373K | −2.8% of holding | +29.4% | +3.4% | 103,221 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $124.83 | $1.2M | −1.7% of holding | +10.8% | −6.9% | 566,698 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
219 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Burkhart Erin | officer | Withheld for tax | 768 | 1,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | Burkhart Erin | officer | Option exercise | 2,223 | 2,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | Burkhart Erin | officer | Option exercise | 2,223 | 9,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Withheld for tax | 4,230 | 581,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,347 | 167,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Mercier Johanna | director | Withheld for tax | 1,347 | 119,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Cain Wettan Keeley M | officer | Withheld for tax | 285 | 8,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Berger Dietmar | officer | Withheld for tax | 263 | 19,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Option exercise | 2,797 | 25,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Berger Dietmar | officer | Option exercise | 533 | 46,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Berger Dietmar | officer | Option exercise | 533 | 46,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Mercier Johanna | director | Option exercise | 2,797 | 25,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Option exercise | 8,780 | 83,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Berger Dietmar | officer | Option exercise | 533 | 46,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Cain Wettan Keeley M | officer | Option exercise | 590 | 13,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Mercier Johanna | director | Option exercise | 2,797 | 121,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Option exercise | 2,797 | 168,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Mercier Johanna | director | Option exercise | 2,797 | 25,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Cain Wettan Keeley M | officer | Option exercise | 590 | 13,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Mercier Johanna | director | Option exercise | 2,797 | 121,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Option exercise | 2,797 | 168,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Mercier Johanna | director | Option exercise | 2,797 | 121,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Mercier Johanna | director | Option exercise | 2,797 | 25,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Cain Wettan Keeley M | officer | Option exercise | 590 | 13,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Mercier Johanna | director | Option exercise | 2,797 | 121,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Berger Dietmar | officer | Option exercise | 533 | 19,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Option exercise | 2,797 | 25,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Option exercise | 8,780 | 585,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Berger Dietmar | officer | Option exercise | 533 | 19,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Option exercise | 8,780 | 83,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Option exercise | 2,797 | 25,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Berger Dietmar | officer | Option exercise | 533 | 19,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Mercier Johanna | director | Option exercise | 2,797 | 25,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | O'Day Daniel Patrick | director | Option exercise | 8,780 | 83,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Cain Wettan Keeley M | officer | Option exercise | 590 | 9,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Dickinson Andrew D | officer | Option exercise | 2,797 | 168,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Cain Wettan Keeley M | officer | Option exercise | 590 | 9,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Cain Wettan Keeley M | officer | Option exercise | 590 | 9,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Berger Dietmar | officer | Option exercise | 533 | 46,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Cain Wettan Keeley M | officer | Option exercise | 590 | 9,044 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $15–50K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-06-19 | 2026-05-06 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-06-19 | 2026-05-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-02-26 | 2026-01-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $15–50K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | purchase | 2025-06-18 | 2025-06-06 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2025-06-11 | 2025-05-14 | $1–15K |
| John Boozman | Senate | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-16 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.