GIII · TickerCove

GIIIG-III Apparel Group, Ltd.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Manufacturersas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.17 · now $28.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GIII has typically landed between $22.89 and $34.14 — a range of −18.7% to +21.2% from the issuance price $28.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$28.17 · 28% of range

$24.81 low$36.81 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.2%

typical move · IQR 14.7%

−18.7%worst (p90)+21.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where GIII has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $28.17 (+0.0%)
typical $28.51 (+1.2%)
middle 50% $26.43–$30.58
90% range $22.89–$34.14

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−83.2%	−83.2%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−77.4%	−83.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−76.6%	−82.6%	+2.3%
3 best
2020-03-18	+102.0%	+0.0%	+132.5%
2009-03-06	+92.4%	−5.2%	+92.4%
2009-03-05	+90.0%	−4.1%	+90.0%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−0.6%

n=20

Feb

55%

+0.2%

n=20

Mar

55%

+0.9%

n=20

Apr

60%

+6.4%

n=20

May

60%

−1.6%

n=20

Jun

55%

+4.6%

n=20

Jul

70%

+1.9%

n=20

Aug

45%

+0.6%

n=20

Sep

60%

+4.0%

n=20

Oct

50%

−0.1%

n=20

Nov

75%

+2.7%

n=20

Dec

65%

+6.7%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	GOLDFARB MORRIS	director	Purchase	40,000 @ $27.94	$1.1M	+0.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	4,527,675	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-12	Aaron Sammy	director	Sale	20,000 @ $30.63	$613K	−7.0% of holding	−6.5%	+1.1%	267,561	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11	Aaron Sammy	director	Sale	73,609 @ $30.77	$2.3M	−20.4% of holding	−3.2%	+3.1%	287,561	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-24	Herrero Amigo Victor	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $21.95	$110K	+10.1% of holding	+4.5%	+26.5%	54,746	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-17	Goldfarb Jeffrey David	director	Purchase	23,076 @ $21.33	$492K	+4.1% of holding	+1.6%	+32.8%	587,132	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

60 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-18	GOLDFARB MORRIS	director	Withheld for tax	464,520	4,487,675	Form 4
2026-08-18	GOLDFARB MORRIS	director	Award / grant	840,000	4,952,195	Form 4
2026-06-15	GOLDFARB MORRIS	director	Withheld for tax	187,238	4,112,195	Form 4
2026-06-15	Aaron Sammy	director	Withheld for tax	120,024	335,471	Form 4
2026-06-15	Goldfarb Jeffrey David	director	Withheld for tax	55,400	778,471	Form 4
2026-06-15	NACKMAN NEAL	officer	Withheld for tax	18,251	49,525	Form 4
2026-06-15	GOLDFARB MORRIS	director	Award / grant	234,405	4,299,433	Form 4
2026-06-15	NACKMAN NEAL	officer	Award / grant	21,704	67,776	Form 4
2026-06-15	Aaron Sammy	director	Award / grant	130,224	455,495	Form 4
2026-06-15	Goldfarb Jeffrey David	director	Award / grant	65,112	833,871	Form 4
2026-06-11	VITALI CHERYL L	director	Award / grant	3,644	70,592	Form 4
2026-06-11	BROSIG THOMAS	director	Award / grant	4,065	61,997	Form 4
2026-06-11	BROWN JOYCE F	director	Award / grant	3,644	20,905	Form 4
2026-06-11	Herrero Amigo Victor	director	Award / grant	3,644	58,390	Form 4
2026-06-11	Ongman Patti H	director	Award / grant	3,644	25,991	Form 4
2026-06-11	WHITE RICHARD	director	Award / grant	5,046	97,798	Form 4
2026-06-11	Shaffer Michael A	director	Award / grant	4,345	23,694	Form 4
2026-06-11	Yaeger Andrew	director	Award / grant	3,644	20,905	Form 4
2026-04-30	Goldfarb Jeffrey David	director	Award / grant	22,392	768,708	Form 4
2026-04-30	Aaron Sammy	director	Award / grant	57,581	325,142	Form 4
2026-04-30	GOLDFARB MORRIS	director	Award / grant	76,775	4,064,856	Form 4
2026-04-30	PERLMAN DANA	director	Award / grant	15,994	100,380	Form 4
2026-04-30	NACKMAN NEAL	officer	Award / grant	7,997	46,054	Form 4
2025-12-18	NACKMAN NEAL	officer	Disposition	34,693	38,057	Form 4
2025-12-12	Goldfarb Jeffrey David	director	Award / grant	159,184	746,316	Form 4
2025-12-12	PERLMAN DANA	director	Award / grant	63,673	84,386	Form 4
2025-12-10	GOLDFARB MORRIS	director	Other acquisition	500,000	3,988,081	Form 4
2025-12-10	GOLDFARB MORRIS	director	Other acquisition	500,000	3,488,081	Form 4
2025-12-10	GOLDFARB MORRIS	director	Other acquisition	500,000	0	Form 4
2025-12-10	GOLDFARB MORRIS	director	Gift	64,083	140,258	Form 4
2025-12-10	GOLDFARB MORRIS	director	Gift	64,083	2,988,081	Form 4
2025-06-12	Yaeger Andrew	director	Award / grant	6,117	17,261	Form 4
2025-06-12	Shaffer Michael A	director	Award / grant	7,294	19,349	Form 4
2025-06-12	WHITE RICHARD	director	Award / grant	8,470	92,752	Form 4
2025-06-12	BROSIG THOMAS	director	Award / grant	6,823	57,932	Form 4
2025-06-12	JOHNSON ROBERT L	director	Award / grant	6,117	32,452	Form 4
2025-06-12	POMERANTZ LAURA H	director	Award / grant	6,117	31,020	Form 4
2025-06-12	Ongman Patti H	director	Award / grant	6,117	22,347	Form 4
2025-06-12	VITALI CHERYL L	director	Award / grant	6,117	66,948	Form 4
2025-06-12	BROWN JOYCE F	director	Award / grant	6,117	17,261	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i