GHMGraham CorporationIndustrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $85.28 · now $85.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GHM has typically landed between $72.20 and $109.04 — a range of −15.3% to +27.9% from the issuance price $85.28.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($85.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GHM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $85.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$72.2worst · -15.3%$109.04best · +27.9%
  • now $85.28 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $87.4 (+2.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $79.99–$94.8
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $72.2–$109.04
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-14−61.8%−61.8%+0.0%
2008-10-21−60.9%−60.9%+0.0%
2008-10-16−60.6%−60.6%+0.0%
3 best
2008-03-28+68.5%+0.0%+68.5%
2007-06-04+67.2%+0.0%+67.2%
2007-06-01+65.8%+0.0%+65.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−2.4%
n=20
Feb
60%
+2.1%
n=20
Mar
50%
−0.3%
n=20
Apr
50%
+5.2%
n=20
May
45%
+2.3%
n=20
Jun
55%
+6.5%
n=20
Jul
65%
+3.3%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.2%
n=20
Sep
50%
−0.2%
n=20
Oct
50%
+3.3%
n=20
Nov
70%
+5.1%
n=20
Dec
45%
+1.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$124$472025-09-12: 1 insider purchase, $59K — Gregorio Mauro2025-09: 1 open-market purchase, $59K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Gregorio Mauro — Purchase on 2025-09-12, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-09-12Gregorio MaurodirectorPurchase1,200 @ $49.01$59Kownership Δ n/a+17.2%+61.5%1,200Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

130 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02Gregorio MaurodirectorOption exercise9362,136Form 4
2026-09-02Gregorio MaurodirectorOption exercise9360Form 4
2026-08-10Scholes Richard AlanofficerAward / grant1,5631,563Form 4
2026-08-10Scholes Richard AlanofficerAward / grant3,6783,678Form 4
2026-06-08Thoren Daniel J.directorWithheld for tax8,095374,945Form 4
2026-06-08Thome Christopher J.officerWithheld for tax3,19335,988Form 4
2026-06-08Malone MatthewdirectorWithheld for tax2,47763,629Form 4
2026-06-08Thome Christopher J.officerAward / grant8,61939,181Form 4
2026-06-08Thoren Daniel J.directorAward / grant22,101383,040Form 4
2026-06-08Malone MatthewdirectorAward / grant8,61966,106Form 4
2026-06-04Thoren Daniel J.directorWithheld for tax1,593360,939Form 4
2026-06-04Thome Christopher J.officerWithheld for tax60830,562Form 4
2026-06-04Malone MatthewdirectorWithheld for tax37157,487Form 4
2026-06-04Thoren Daniel J.directorOption exercise5,543362,532Form 4
2026-06-04Malone MatthewdirectorOption exercise1,2911,291Form 4
2026-06-04Thoren Daniel J.directorOption exercise5,5435,543Form 4
2026-06-04Thome Christopher J.officerOption exercise1,64331,170Form 4
2026-06-04Thome Christopher J.officerOption exercise1,6431,644Form 4
2026-06-04Malone MatthewdirectorOption exercise1,29157,858Form 4
2026-06-02Malone MatthewdirectorWithheld for tax73056,567Form 4
2026-06-02Thome Christopher J.officerWithheld for tax40729,527Form 4
2026-06-02Dixon Michael E.officerWithheld for tax2351,263Form 4
2026-06-02Thoren Daniel J.directorWithheld for tax152356,989Form 4
2026-06-02Painter Jonathan WdirectorOption exercise1,95634,556Form 4
2026-06-02Barber James JdirectorOption exercise1,95655,791Form 4
2026-06-02Barber James JdirectorOption exercise1,9560Form 4
2026-06-02Dixon Michael E.officerOption exercise7621,498Form 4
2026-06-02Dixon Michael E.officerOption exercise7621,525Form 4
2026-06-02Thome Christopher J.officerOption exercise1,09929,934Form 4
2026-06-02Thome Christopher J.officerOption exercise1,0992,200Form 4
2026-06-02Thoren Daniel J.directorOption exercise529357,141Form 4
2026-06-02Thoren Daniel J.directorOption exercise5291,059Form 4
2026-06-02Malone MatthewdirectorOption exercise2,54057,297Form 4
2026-06-02Malone MatthewdirectorOption exercise2,5405,082Form 4
2026-06-02Jaroslawsky Cari LdirectorOption exercise1,95618,623Form 4
2026-06-02Jaroslawsky Cari LdirectorOption exercise1,9560Form 4
2026-06-02Schnorr Lisa M.directorOption exercise1,95637,867Form 4
2026-06-02Schnorr Lisa M.directorOption exercise1,9560Form 4
2026-06-02Stoner Troy A.directorOption exercise1,95618,623Form 4
2026-06-02Stoner Troy A.directorOption exercise1,9560Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.