GHC · TickerCove

GHCGraham Holdings Companyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1134.85 · now $1134.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GHC has typically landed between $1035.95 and $1265.21 — a range of −8.7% to +11.5% from the issuance price $1134.85.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1134.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$1,135 · 74% of range

$944.04 low$1,202 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.0%

typical move · IQR 8.2%

−8.7%worst (p90)+11.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

2 buys · 7 sells · 2 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where GHC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1,135 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $1,135 (+0.0%)
typical $1,146 (+1.0%)
middle 50% $1,100–$1,193
90% range $1,036–$1,265

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−48.3%	−48.3%	+0.2%
2020-02-21	−46.1%	−46.8%	+0.0%
2008-09-26	−42.4%	−42.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-07-14	+41.2%	+0.0%	+41.2%
2009-07-02	+39.5%	+0.0%	+39.5%
2009-07-10	+38.5%	+0.0%	+38.5%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

72%

+1.8%

n=18

Feb

58%

+0.5%

n=19

Mar

47%

−0.7%

n=19

Apr

53%

+2.7%

n=19

May

42%

−1.6%

n=19

Jun

53%

−1.0%

n=19

Jul

74%

+4.6%

n=19

Aug

37%

−1.1%

n=19

Sep

42%

−0.4%

n=19

Oct

39%

−1.6%

n=18

Nov

72%

+4.5%

n=18

Dec

50%

+2.3%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-07-30	Allen Tony	director	Sale	7 @ $942.89	$7K	−46.7% of holding	+12.5%	+11.6%	8	Form 4 · filed 223 days after the trade
2025-01-06	Snyman Marcel A.	officer	Sale	159 @ $881.30	$140K	−26.5% of holding	+5.2%	−0.5%	442	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

127 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-28	Maas, Jacob	officer	Withheld for tax	501	7,156	Form 4
2026-08-28	Maas, Jacob	officer	Award / grant	1,000	7,657	Form 4
2026-08-13	GRAHAM DONALD	director	Other acquisition	12,633	375,592	Form 4
2026-08-13	GRAHAM DONALD	director	Other acquisition	12,633	375,592	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Laura	director	Other acquisition	4,211	22,865	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Laura	director	Other acquisition	4,211	15,711	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Laura	director	Other acquisition	4,211	19,922	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	4,211	22,878	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	4,211	15,711	Form 4
2026-08-13	GRAHAM DONALD	director	Other acquisition	12,633	375,592	Form 4
2026-08-13	GRAHAM DONALD	director	Other acquisition	12,633	375,592	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Laura	director	Other acquisition	4,211	22,865	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Laura	director	Other acquisition	4,211	15,711	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Laura	director	Other acquisition	4,211	19,922	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	4,211	22,878	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	4,211	15,711	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	4,211	19,922	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Laura	director	Other acquisition	4,211	22,865	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Laura	director	Other acquisition	4,211	15,711	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Laura	director	Other acquisition	4,211	19,922	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	4,211	22,878	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	4,211	15,711	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	4,211	19,922	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Laura	director	Other acquisition	4,211	19,922	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Laura	director	Other acquisition	4,211	22,865	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	4,211	19,922	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	4,211	15,711	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	4,211	19,922	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	4,211	22,878	Form 4
2026-08-13	O'Shaughnessy Laura	director	Other acquisition	4,211	15,711	Form 4
2026-07-01	Davis Christopher C	director	Award / grant	23	5,614	Form 4
2026-07-01	MULCAHY ANNE M	director	Award / grant	21	758	Form 4
2026-07-01	WAGONER G RICHARD JR	director	Award / grant	21	1,554	Form 4
2026-07-01	CONLEY DANIELLE Y.	director	Award / grant	19	461	Form 4
2026-07-01	Markell Jack A.	director	Award / grant	7	48	Form 4
2026-05-26	Weymouth Katharine	director	Other acquisition	6,000	30,000	Form 4
2026-05-26	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	5,600	0	Form 4
2026-05-26	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	400	27,087	Form 4
2026-05-26	O'Shaughnessy Timothy J	director	Other acquisition	6,000	11,500	Form 4
2026-05-26	Weymouth Katharine	director	Other acquisition	6,000	7,615	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2021-10-20	2021-09-21	$100–250K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2021-10-20	2021-09-21	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2021-04-19	2021-03-04	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2021-04-19	2021-03-04	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-06-15	2020-05-15	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2020-06-15	2020-05-15	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	purchase	2020-05-18	2020-04-02	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	purchase	2020-05-18	2020-04-02	$50–100K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2020-05-13	2020-04-07	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i