Issued 2026-09-16 at $174.90 · now $174.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GH has typically landed between $134.12 and $239.36 — a range of −23.3% to +36.9% from the issuance price $174.90.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,963 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-10-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($174.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $174.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $174.9 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $175.01 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $153.3–$196.71
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $134.12–$239.36
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −59.1% | −59.1% | +4.2% |
| 2022-04-07 | −58.5% | −58.5% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-08 | −57.5% | −58.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-02-12 | +132.0% | +0.0% | +132.0% |
| 2019-02-11 | +128.0% | +0.0% | +128.0% |
| 2019-02-13 | +127.5% | +0.0% | +127.5% |
1,963 overlapping windows · 2018-10-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Kalia Kumud | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $158.05 | $632K | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 39,794 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 20,888 @ $169.16 | $3.5M | −31.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,089 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 9,023 @ $168.20 | $1.5M | −12.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 65,977 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 7,589 @ $170.29 | $1.3M | −16.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 37,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Tariq Musa | director | Sale | 116 @ $156.45 | $18K | −1.0% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,316 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Monroe Terilyn J. | officer | Sale | 19,014 @ $165.16 | $3.1M | −34.2% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,627 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Monroe Terilyn J. | officer | Sale | 13,248 @ $166.11 | $2.2M | −36.2% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,379 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Monroe Terilyn J. | officer | Sale | 9,934 @ $164.27 | $1.6M | −15.1% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,641 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Monroe Terilyn J. | officer | Sale | 3,704 @ $163.41 | $605K | −5.3% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,575 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Monroe Terilyn J. | officer | Sale | 400 @ $167.92 | $67K | −1.7% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,979 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Freeman Chris | officer | Sale | 35,364 @ $169.63 | $6.0M | −29.9% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,787 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Freeman Chris | officer | Sale | 17,413 @ $170.24 | $3.0M | −21.0% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,374 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Freeman Chris | officer | Sale | 7,365 @ $168.79 | $1.2M | −5.9% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 118,151 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Freeman Chris | officer | Sale | 3,463 @ $167.38 | $580K | −2.7% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,516 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Hidalgo Medina Manuel | director | Sale | 950 @ $163.94 | $156K | −15.2% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,306 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Hidalgo Medina Manuel | director | Sale | 750 @ $164.61 | $123K | −14.1% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,556 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | CLARK IAN T | director | Sale | 9,088 @ $158.98 | $1.4M | −53.0% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | CLARK IAN T | director | Sale | 5,092 @ $158.80 | $809K | −63.1% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Tariq Musa | director | Sale | 116 @ $163.29 | $19K | −1.0% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,182 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-29 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 70,513 @ $151.47 | $10.7M | −3.5% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,928,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 46,663 @ $152.20 | $7.1M | −2.4% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,881,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 25,812 @ $150.53 | $3.9M | −1.3% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,998,552 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 40 @ $153.00 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,881,336 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 64,037 @ $150.49 | $9.6M | −3.2% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,934,271 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 52,935 @ $151.16 | $8.0M | −2.7% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,881,336 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Tariq Musa | director | Sale | 1,951 @ $131.16 | $256K | −15.0% of holding | +16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | POTTER MYRTLE S | director | Sale | 1,556 @ $131.16 | $204K | −6.9% of holding | +16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,971 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Tariq Musa | director | Sale | 116 @ $130.19 | $15K | −1.3% of holding | +23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,796 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Kalia Kumud | officer | Sale | 600 @ $131.08 | $79K | −1.4% of holding | +19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,814 | Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Kalia Kumud | officer | Purchase | 600 @ $130.76 | $78K | +1.5% of holding | +19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,414 | Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Kalia Kumud | officer | Sale | 3,418 @ $130.24 | $445K | −7.7% of holding | +20.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,090 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Kalia Kumud | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $130.41 | $652K | −10.1% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,508 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Kalia Kumud | officer | Sale | 600 @ $130.86 | $79K | −1.4% of holding | +17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,814 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Eltoukhy Helmy | director | Sale | 49,716 @ $125.57 | $6.2M | −2.4% of holding | +23.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,063,203 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Eltoukhy Helmy | director | Sale | 33,843 @ $126.33 | $4.3M | −1.6% of holding | +23.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,029,360 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Eltoukhy Helmy | director | Sale | 13,787 @ $128.25 | $1.8M | −0.7% of holding | +23.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,014,473 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Bell Michael Brian | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $128.62 | $257K | −4.0% of holding | +23.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,509 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Eltoukhy Helmy | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $127.02 | $140K | −0.1% of holding | +23.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,028,260 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Eltoukhy Helmy | director | Sale | 900 @ $131.78 | $119K | −0.0% of holding | +23.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,013,019 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Eltoukhy Helmy | director | Sale | 554 @ $130.21 | $72K | −0.0% of holding | +23.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,013,919 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Eltoukhy Helmy | director | Sale | 100 @ $132.55 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | +23.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,012,919 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Krognes Steve E. | director | Sale | 9,294 @ $132.51 | $1.2M | −47.6% of holding | +23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,222 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Joyce Meghan V. | director | Sale | 5,728 @ $127.11 | $728K | −32.4% of holding | +33.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,939 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Joyce Meghan V. | director | Sale | 3,516 @ $126.52 | $445K | −16.6% of holding | +33.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Joyce Meghan V. | director | Sale | 650 @ $128.02 | $83K | −5.4% of holding | +33.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,289 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Joyce Meghan V. | director | Sale | 106 @ $129.31 | $14K | −0.9% of holding | +33.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,183 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Hidalgo Medina Manuel | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $130.06 | $130K | −61.0% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 639 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Saia John G. | officer | Sale | 9,994 @ $125.08 | $1.3M | −21.7% of holding | +19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,956 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Saia John G. | officer | Sale | 6 @ $126.08 | $756 | −0.0% of holding | +19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,950 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Freeman Chris | officer | Sale | 24,406 @ $118.67 | $2.9M | −28.9% of holding | +16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,034 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 37,900 @ $112.02 | $4.2M | −1.9% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,912,856 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 37,163 @ $111.14 | $4.1M | −1.9% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,950,756 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 33,069 @ $108.11 | $3.6M | −1.6% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,026,679 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 28,908 @ $110.10 | $3.2M | −1.4% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,987,919 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 26,352 @ $112.76 | $3.0M | −1.4% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,886,504 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 21,171 @ $106.99 | $2.3M | −1.0% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,059,748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 11,919 @ $105.01 | $1.3M | −0.6% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,082,119 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Sale | 9,852 @ $108.97 | $1.1M | −0.5% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,016,827 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Saia John G. | officer | Sale | 7,181 @ $107.23 | $770K | −13.5% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,950 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Saia John G. | officer | Sale | 7,187 @ $106.71 | $767K | −11.9% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,131 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
228 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Azar Alex M II | director | Option exercise | 1,651 | 4,953 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Azar Alex M II | director | Option exercise | 1,651 | 1,651 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Eltoukhy Helmy | director | Gift | 30,000 | 1,940,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Eltoukhy Helmy | director | Other acquisition | 25,000 | 1,970,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Eltoukhy Helmy | director | Other acquisition | 25,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | MIGNONE ROBERTO | director | Option exercise | 264 | 6,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | MIGNONE ROBERTO | director | Option exercise | 264 | 10,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Hidalgo Medina Manuel | director | Option exercise | 232 | 5,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Hidalgo Medina Manuel | director | Option exercise | 232 | 4,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Tariq Musa | director | Option exercise | 250 | 11,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Tariq Musa | director | Option exercise | 250 | 1,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Monroe Terilyn J. | officer | Option exercise | 32,288 | 55,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Monroe Terilyn J. | officer | Option exercise | 14,012 | 69,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Monroe Terilyn J. | officer | Option exercise | 32,288 | 10,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Monroe Terilyn J. | officer | Option exercise | 14,012 | 18,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Eltoukhy Helmy | director | Gift | 35,000 | 1,995,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Eltoukhy Helmy | director | Gift | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Freeman Chris | officer | Option exercise | 35,412 | 100,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Freeman Chris | officer | Option exercise | 28,193 | 128,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Freeman Chris | officer | Option exercise | 28,193 | 1,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Freeman Chris | officer | Option exercise | 35,412 | 3,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Gift | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Saia John G. | officer | Gift | 800 | 38,991 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Gift | 75,000 | 1,824,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Hidalgo Medina Manuel | director | Option exercise | 950 | 6,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Hidalgo Medina Manuel | director | Option exercise | 950 | 12,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | CLARK IAN T | director | Option exercise | 6,833 | 17,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | CLARK IAN T | director | Option exercise | 2,255 | 10,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | CLARK IAN T | director | Option exercise | 2,255 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | CLARK IAN T | director | Option exercise | 6,833 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | MIGNONE ROBERTO | director | Option exercise | 264 | 9,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | MIGNONE ROBERTO | director | Option exercise | 264 | 7,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hidalgo Medina Manuel | director | Option exercise | 232 | 5,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hidalgo Medina Manuel | director | Option exercise | 232 | 5,306 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Tariq Musa | director | Option exercise | 250 | 1,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Tariq Musa | director | Option exercise | 250 | 11,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Eltoukhy Helmy | director | Withheld for tax | 17,086 | 2,030,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Talasaz AmirAli | director | Withheld for tax | 17,086 | 1,899,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Chudova Darya | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,318 | 78,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bell Michael Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,914 | 51,816 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | purchase | 2025-12-01 | 2025-11-21 | $1–15K |
| Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr. | House | sale | 2022-03-03 | 2022-02-28 | $1–15K |
| Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr. | House | sale | 2022-02-01 | 2022-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr. | House | sale | 2022-01-01 | 2021-12-22 | $1–15K |
| Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr | House | purchase | 2020-12-01 | 2020-11-02 | $1–15K |
| Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr | House | purchase | 2020-11-05 | 2020-10-22 | $1–15K |
| Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr | House | purchase | 2020-11-05 | 2020-10-05 | $1–15K |
| Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr | House | sale | 2020-08-09 | 2020-07-14 | $1–15K |
| Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr | House | sale | 2020-05-31 | 2020-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr | House | sale | 2020-05-09 | 2020-04-27 | $1–15K |
| Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr | House | purchase | 2020-02-22 | 2020-02-14 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.