Issued 2026-09-16 at $42.27 · now $42.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GGAL has typically landed between $33.84 and $55.67 — a range of −19.9% to +31.7% from the issuance price $42.27.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($42.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GGAL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $42.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $42.27 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $43.12 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $38.25–$48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.84–$55.67
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2019-08-02 | −72.7% | −72.7% | +9.0% |
| 2019-08-01 | −69.4% | −69.4% | +7.8% |
| 2019-08-09 | −68.8% | −74.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-10-07 | +113.4% | +0.0% | +119.2% |
| 2025-10-03 | +112.4% | −3.1% | +112.4% |
| 2025-10-02 | +111.6% | −0.6% | +111.6% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Moret Silvestre Vila | director | Purchase | 224,000 @ $5.36 | $1.2M | +8.1% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Moret Silvestre Vila | director | Purchase | 175,824 @ $5.46 | $960K | +6.8% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,776,000 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Moret Silvestre Vila | director | Purchase | 176 @ $5.46 | $961 | +0.0% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,600,176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Moret Silvestre Vila | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $5.11 | $511K | +4.0% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,600,000 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Moret Silvestre Vila | director | Purchase | 167,791 @ $5.27 | $884K | +7.2% of holding | +3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,500,000 | Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Moret Silvestre Vila | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.25 | $53K | +0.4% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,332,209 | Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Moret Silvestre Vila | director | Purchase | 125,000 @ $5.15 | $644K | +5.7% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,322,209 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.