Issued 2026-09-16 at $43.03 · now $43.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GFS has typically landed between $34.54 and $53.67 — a range of −19.7% to +24.7% from the issuance price $43.03.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,204 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($43.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GFS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $43.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $43.03 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $42.82 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $39.27–$46.37
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $34.54–$53.67
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,204 windows spanning 2021-10-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-29 | −41.9% | −41.9% | +1.7% |
| 2026-06-30 | −39.5% | −42.9% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-26 | −38.6% | −38.6% | +3.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-06 | +69.8% | +0.0% | +69.8% |
| 2026-04-07 | +64.6% | +0.0% | +68.5% |
| 2022-02-23 | +59.0% | +0.0% | +60.1% |
1,204 overlapping windows · 2021-10-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−1.2%
n=5
Feb
60%
+7.8%
n=5
Mar
40%
−0.5%
n=5
Apr
20%
−0.1%
n=5
May
80%
+7.9%
n=5
Jun
80%
−1.7%
n=5
Jul
40%
−2.9%
n=5
Aug
20%
−5.4%
n=5
Sep
40%
−4.8%
n=5
Oct
25%
−1.9%
n=4
Nov
100%
+16.6%
n=5
Dec
20%
−2.6%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $44.83 | $15K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,799 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $43.24 | $14K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,134 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $46.75 | $16K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $48.38 | $16K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,804 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Raman Pradheepa | officer | Sale | 6,760 @ $51.12 | $346K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $52.62 | $18K | −2.9% of holding | −15.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,139 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $48.29 | $16K | −2.8% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,474 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $48.93 | $16K | −2.8% of holding | −14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,809 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $57.12 | $19K | −2.7% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,144 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Sale | 707 @ $57.81 | $41K | −87.6% of holding | −21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Dorchak Glenda | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $58.22 | $233K | −21.2% of holding | −15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $59.18 | $20K | −2.6% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,479 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Purchase | 12 @ $61.41 | $767 | +1.6% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 807 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Sale | 500 @ $70.90 | $35K | −38.6% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 795 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $70.90 | $24K | −2.5% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,814 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Sale | 2,200 @ $65.90 | $145K | −61.2% of holding | −29.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $77.36 | $26K | −2.5% of holding | −30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,149 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $87.02 | $29K | −2.4% of holding | −38.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,484 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Sale | 2,800 @ $83.53 | $234K | −42.8% of holding | −36.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,745 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $83.35 | $28K | −2.4% of holding | −30.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,819 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $77.00 | $26K | −2.3% of holding | −23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,154 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Sale | 2,800 @ $75.17 | $210K | −29.5% of holding | −18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $82.00 | $27K | −2.3% of holding | −21.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,489 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $80.90 | $27K | −2.2% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,824 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Sale | 2,800 @ $82.88 | $232K | −22.5% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,645 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 335 @ $77.99 | $26K | −2.2% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,159 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 500 @ $74.82 | $37K | −3.1% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,494 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Sale | 2,800 @ $74.64 | $209K | −18.2% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,595 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Vicari Samuel | officer | Sale | 8,692 @ $75.62 | $657K | −100.0% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 500 @ $72.19 | $36K | −3.0% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,994 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Sale | 500 @ $70.00 | $35K | −3.1% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 500 @ $63.00 | $32K | −2.9% of holding | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,494 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Sale | 2,300 @ $60.69 | $140K | −12.5% of holding | +21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 500 @ $59.66 | $30K | −2.9% of holding | +33.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,994 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Dorchak Glenda | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $58.46 | $234K | −17.5% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,867 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Sale | 500 @ $60.00 | $30K | −2.7% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,345 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 500 @ $48.71 | $24K | −2.8% of holding | +35.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,494 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $48.31 | $87K | −8.7% of holding | +46.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 500 @ $47.60 | $24K | −2.7% of holding | +43.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,994 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 500 @ $42.96 | $21K | −2.6% of holding | +45.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,494 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $45.04 | $81K | −7.9% of holding | +36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 500 @ $45.99 | $23K | −2.6% of holding | +24.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,994 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Azar Samak L | officer | Sale | 500 @ $41.59 | $21K | −2.5% of holding | +27.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,494 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $43.25 | $78K | −7.3% of holding | +21.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,895 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Languille Camilla | director | Withheld for tax | 1,571 | 11,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Pedersen Gregory Johnson | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,268 | 12,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Pedersen Gregory Johnson | officer | Withheld for tax | 761 | 15,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | OBEID CARLOS ANTOINE | director | Withheld for tax | 1,671 | 19,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Antaki Marc | director | Withheld for tax | 1,671 | 9,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Languille Camilla | director | Withheld for tax | 1,671 | 7,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Antaki Marc | director | Withheld for tax | 483 | 5,306 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | OBEID CARLOS ANTOINE | director | Withheld for tax | 430 | 15,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Halawa Samer | director | Award / grant | 3,291 | 13,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Antaki Marc | director | Award / grant | 3,291 | 14,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Antaki Marc | director | Award / grant | 1,610 | 5,789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Dorchak Glenda | director | Award / grant | 3,291 | 8,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | MOORTHY GANESH | director | Award / grant | 3,291 | 14,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Languille Camilla | director | Award / grant | 3,291 | 14,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Yerramilli - Rao Bobby Satyadev | director | Award / grant | 3,291 | 8,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Yerramilli - Rao Bobby Satyadev | director | Award / grant | 1,861 | 22,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | LAZAR JACK R | director | Award / grant | 3,291 | 8,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | KERKO DAVID M | director | Award / grant | 3,291 | 8,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | OBEID CARLOS ANTOINE | director | Award / grant | 3,291 | 8,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | OBEID CARLOS ANTOINE | director | Award / grant | 1,431 | 15,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Gift | 100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Gift | 100 | 1,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Gift | 150 | 3,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Gift | 150 | 6,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Gift | 150 | 9,495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Gift | 150 | 12,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Singh Pradip Singh Hardip | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,714 | 51,764 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Caulfield Thomas | director | Award / grant | 146,199 | 188,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Antaki Marc | director | Withheld for tax | 1,792 | 4,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Gift | 150 | 15,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Gift | 150 | 18,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Vicari Samuel | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,461 | 8,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Gift | 150 | 20,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Hogan Michael James | officer | Gift | 150 | 22,745 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.