Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.52 · now $1.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GEVO has typically landed between $1.09 and $2.10 — a range of −28.4% to +38.4% from the issuance price $1.52.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,898 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-02-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GEVO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.52 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.47 (-3.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.24–$1.69
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.09–$2.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,898 windows spanning 2011-02-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2018-06-19 | −79.0% | −80.5% | +0.0% |
| 2017-02-02 | −70.9% | −70.9% | +0.0% |
| 2018-06-20 | −67.2% | −69.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-12-21 | +362.9% | +0.0% | +362.9% |
| 2020-12-22 | +341.5% | +0.0% | +361.3% |
| 2020-12-18 | +339.7% | +0.0% | +339.7% |
3,898 overlapping windows · 2011-02-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
+6.2%
n=15
Feb
20%
−5.3%
n=15
Mar
38%
−4.0%
n=16
Apr
13%
−9.8%
n=16
May
50%
−0.8%
n=16
Jun
38%
−4.6%
n=16
Jul
38%
−5.3%
n=16
Aug
63%
+10.3%
n=16
Sep
38%
−4.9%
n=16
Oct
47%
+1.4%
n=15
Nov
27%
−0.8%
n=15
Dec
33%
−6.0%
n=15
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Gruber Patrick R. | director | Sale | 3,333 @ $1.70 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,320,455 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Bloom Paul D | director | Sale | 1,514 @ $1.71 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,500,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Bowron Kimberly T | officer | Sale | 1,221 @ $1.71 | $2K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 684,817 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Barber James J | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $1.54 | $77K | +71.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 120,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Kettner David Michael | officer | Purchase | 12,500 @ $1.55 | $19K | +4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 276,788 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Gruber Patrick R. | director | Sale | 247,642 @ $1.51 | $374K | −6.9% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,323,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Bloom Paul D | director | Sale | 31,096 @ $1.55 | $48K | −2.1% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,452,303 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | officer | Sale | 18,223 @ $1.54 | $28K | −3.7% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 472,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Bowron Kimberly T | officer | Sale | 10,257 @ $1.55 | $16K | −1.5% of holding | +13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 686,038 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Gruber Patrick R. | director | Sale | 157,563 @ $1.40 | $221K | −4.2% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,571,430 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | officer | Sale | 63,028 @ $1.40 | $88K | −11.4% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 491,116 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Ryan Christopher Michael | officer | Sale | 35,196 @ $1.43 | $50K | −2.7% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,279,245 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Bloom Paul D | director | Sale | 35,189 @ $1.43 | $50K | −2.3% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,483,399 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Bowron Kimberly T | officer | Sale | 15,470 @ $1.43 | $22K | −2.2% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 696,295 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Sale | 9,443 @ $1.43 | $13K | −2.9% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 311,608 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Gendenjamts Davaajargal | officer | Sale | 4,293 @ $1.43 | $6K | −3.8% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 108,865 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Gruber Patrick R. | director | Sale | 186,469 @ $1.76 | $328K | −4.8% of holding | −19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,728,993 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Ryan Christopher Michael | officer | Sale | 87,700 @ $1.76 | $154K | −6.3% of holding | −19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,314,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Bloom Paul D | director | Sale | 75,735 @ $1.76 | $133K | −4.8% of holding | −19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,518,588 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Sale | 32,667 @ $1.76 | $57K | −9.2% of holding | −19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 321,051 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | officer | Sale | 31,958 @ $1.77 | $57K | −5.5% of holding | −19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 554,144 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Bowron Kimberly T | officer | Sale | 25,101 @ $1.76 | $44K | −3.4% of holding | −19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 711,765 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,550 @ $2.00 | $11K | −2.0% of holding | −16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 270,823 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-01 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,550 @ $2.71 | $15K | −2.0% of holding | −25.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 270,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Ryan Christopher Michael | officer | Sale | 29,797 @ $2.96 | $88K | −2.1% of holding | −40.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,402,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Ryan Christopher Michael | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $2.76 | $276K | −6.5% of holding | −44.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,431,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Mize Gary W. | director | Sale | 107,100 @ $2.33 | $250K | −27.6% of holding | −19.7% | −50.7% | 281,226 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | Fitzgerald Lindsay Clinton | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $2.51 | $50K | −8.6% of holding | −19.7% | −50.7% | 212,199 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,550 @ $2.21 | $12K | −2.0% of holding | −17.6% | −44.9% | 270,823 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $1.99 | $10K | −1.8% of holding | −4.1% | −21.1% | 270,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $2.19 | $11K | −1.8% of holding | −0.2% | −43.6% | 275,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | officer | Sale | 73,284 @ $2.31 | $169K | −21.3% of holding | −14.4% | −42.6% | 271,224 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Gendenjamts Davaajargal | officer | Sale | 2,560 @ $2.32 | $6K | −4.1% of holding | −16.6% | −42.0% | 60,217 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $1.99 | $10K | −1.7% of holding | +11.3% | −21.0% | 280,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Battershell Carol Jane | director | Sale | 75,597 @ $2.02 | $153K | −21.4% of holding | +8.7% | −23.5% | 278,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Sale | 29,797 @ $2.28 | $68K | −9.4% of holding | +2.6% | −17.7% | 285,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $2.53 | $13K | −1.6% of holding | −23.6% | −35.7% | 315,620 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Ryan Christopher Michael | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $2.82 | $282K | −6.1% of holding | −23.8% | −41.7% | 1,531,938 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-14 | Amorelli Angelo | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $2.50 | $250K | −97.1% of holding | −20.4% | −39.4% | 2,942 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $2.01 | $10K | −1.5% of holding | +22.6% | +21.7% | 320,620 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-17 | Bloom Paul D | director | Sale | 75,000 @ $2.01 | $150K | −7.5% of holding | +28.3% | +13.5% | 923,591 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Bloom Paul D | director | Sale | 2,092 @ $1.63 | $3K | −0.2% of holding | +27.9% | +27.1% | 998,591 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | officer | Sale | 1,731 @ $1.63 | $3K | −0.6% of holding | +27.9% | +27.1% | 276,104 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Ryan Christopher Michael | officer | Sale | 1,683 @ $1.63 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | +27.9% | +27.1% | 1,631,938 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Gruber Patrick R. | director | Sale | 1,642 @ $1.63 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +27.9% | +27.1% | 3,845,462 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Bowron Kimberly T | officer | Sale | 1,530 @ $1.63 | $2K | −0.3% of holding | +27.9% | +27.1% | 481,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | officer | Sale | 57,651 @ $1.63 | $94K | −17.2% of holding | +20.4% | +6.2% | 277,835 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $1.58 | $8K | −1.5% of holding | +20.4% | +6.2% | 325,620 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Mize Gary W. | director | Sale | 91,459 @ $1.68 | $153K | −19.1% of holding | +19.6% | +5.2% | 388,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Amorelli Angelo | director | Sale | 16,485 @ $2.00 | $33K | −84.9% of holding | −17.6% | −17.4% | 2,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Amorelli Angelo | director | Sale | 183,515 @ $1.95 | $358K | −90.4% of holding | −18.9% | −14.3% | 19,427 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Gruber Patrick R. | director | Sale | 116,060 @ $1.23 | $143K | −2.9% of holding | +29.2% | +39.7% | 3,847,104 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Ryan Christopher Michael | officer | Sale | 42,499 @ $1.23 | $52K | −2.5% of holding | +29.2% | +39.7% | 1,633,621 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Bloom Paul D | director | Sale | 42,073 @ $1.23 | $52K | −4.0% of holding | +29.2% | +39.7% | 1,000,683 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Smull L Lynn | officer | Sale | 36,611 @ $1.23 | $45K | −3.2% of holding | +29.2% | +39.7% | 1,102,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Bowron Kimberly T | officer | Sale | 12,370 @ $1.23 | $15K | −2.5% of holding | +29.2% | +39.7% | 482,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Fitzgerald Lindsay Clinton | officer | Sale | 8,118 @ $1.23 | $10K | −3.4% of holding | +29.2% | +39.7% | 232,199 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | officer | Sale | 5,738 @ $1.23 | $7K | −1.7% of holding | +29.2% | +39.7% | 335,486 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Gruber Patrick R. | director | Sale | 120,304 @ $1.25 | $151K | −2.9% of holding | +38.0% | +44.1% | 3,963,164 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Ryan Christopher Michael | officer | Sale | 43,964 @ $1.25 | $55K | −2.6% of holding | +38.0% | +44.1% | 1,676,120 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
74 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Werpy Todd Allen | director | Award / grant | 62,583 | 62,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Bloom Paul D | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,502,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Bloom Paul D | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 576,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Gruber Patrick R. | director | Award / grant | 70,000 | 3,915,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Marsh Andrew | director | Award / grant | 70,000 | 343,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Guillen Jaime | director | Award / grant | 70,000 | 264,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mize Gary W. | director | Award / grant | 70,000 | 351,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | BAUM WILLIAM H | director | Award / grant | 80,893 | 80,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Barber James J | director | Award / grant | 70,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Ellet Mary Kathryn | director | Award / grant | 70,000 | 132,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gendenjamts Davaajargal | officer | Award / grant | 61,169 | 61,169 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Fitzgerald Lindsay Clinton | officer | Award / grant | 68,690 | 68,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | JAMES KYLE DEAN | officer | Award / grant | 133,232 | 266,448 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | JAMES KYLE DEAN | officer | Award / grant | 153,937 | 153,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bowron Kimberly T | officer | Award / grant | 255,640 | 736,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bowron Kimberly T | officer | Award / grant | 295,368 | 295,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gendenjamts Davaajargal | officer | Award / grant | 52,941 | 113,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 82,895 | 353,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 95,778 | 95,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bloom Paul D | director | Award / grant | 670,732 | 1,594,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bloom Paul D | director | Award / grant | 774,967 | 774,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Kettner David Michael | officer | Award / grant | 133,232 | 264,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Kettner David Michael | officer | Award / grant | 153,937 | 153,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | officer | Award / grant | 304,878 | 586,102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | officer | Award / grant | 352,258 | 352,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Fitzgerald Lindsay Clinton | officer | Award / grant | 59,451 | 271,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 5,550 | 276,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 5,550 | 185,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | JAMES KYLE DEAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 27,278 | 131,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kettner David Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,118 | 133,216 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 5,550 | 276,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kettner David Michael | officer | Award / grant | 158,334 | 158,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 5,550 | 191,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | JAMES KYLE DEAN | officer | Award / grant | 158,334 | 158,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 5,550 | 276,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Shafer Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 5,550 | 196,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | officer | Award / grant | 10,000 | 281,224 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | officer | Option exercise | 36,446 | 312,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | officer | Option exercise | 31,958 | 344,508 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Agiri Oluwagbemileke Yusuf | officer | Option exercise | 31,958 | 63,917 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.