GEVGE Vernova Inc.Utilities · Renewable Utilitiesas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $957.63 · now $957.63 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, GEV has typically landed between $814.81 and $1231.73 — a range of −14.9% to +28.6% from the issuance price $957.63.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

606 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-03-27 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($957.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GEV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $957.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$814.81worst · -14.9%$1,232best · +28.6%
  • now $957.63 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,026 (+7.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $930.74–$1,121
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $814.81–$1,232
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 606 windows spanning 2024-03-27 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-02-06−27.9%−27.9%+2.7%
2025-01-23−27.8%−27.8%+0.0%
2025-02-07−24.8%−28.5%+1.9%
3 best
2025-04-04+47.9%+0.0%+47.9%
2025-04-21+43.7%+0.0%+43.7%
2025-04-07+42.3%+0.0%+42.3%

606 overlapping windows · 2024-03-27 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$270.3B
market cap
$34.83
EPS (TTM)
29.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-28
next earnings
Revenue$38.1B
'21'25
Net income$4.9B
'21'25
Free cash flow$3.7B
'21'25
Net margin · by yr12.8%
'21'25
ROE · by yr43.7%
'21'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.00
'21'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $957.63$266.50$1,538
  • DCF (intrinsic)$354.17
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$786.27
  • Analyst target · range $817.00–$1,450$1,250
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$957.63

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
100%
+12.3%
n=2
Feb
50%
+5.1%
n=2
Mar
0%
−4.5%
n=2
Apr
100%
+19.4%
n=3
May
67%
+10.5%
n=3
Jun
67%
+10.3%
n=3
Jul
67%
+4.3%
n=3
Aug
33%
−1.2%
n=3
Sep
100%
+11.2%
n=3
Oct
50%
+6.8%
n=2
Nov
100%
+6.6%
n=2
Dec
50%
+3.7%
n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$1K$5472026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $4.6M — Abate Victor2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — Potvin Matthew Joseph2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $4.5M — Baert Steven2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — Parks Kenneth Scott2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $2.0M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $4.5M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $2.5M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $4.6M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Abate Victor — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Potvin Matthew Joseph — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Baert Steven — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed same dayofficer Parks Kenneth Scott — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-01Abate VictorofficerSale4,819 @ $948.08$4.6M−72.4% of holding+20.8%not yet — horizon still open1,835Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-14Potvin Matthew JosephofficerSale2,333 @ $1059.09$2.5M−39.7% of holding−11.1%not yet — horizon still open3,549Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-03Baert StevenofficerSale5,300 @ $850.00$4.5M−29.5% of holding+9.8%−5.7%12,646Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-26Parks Kenneth ScottofficerSale3,300 @ $620.00$2.0M−30.3% of holding−5.2%+32.7%7,590Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-28Zingoni Maria VictoriaofficerSale18,803 @ $368.16$6.9M−100.0% of holding+24.4%+32.9%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

295 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-20Rucker Kim K.W.directorAward / grant173173Form 4
2026-05-20MALAVE JESUS JRdirectorAward / grant173173Form 4
2026-05-20Reynolds Paula RosputdirectorAward / grant173173Form 4
2026-05-20ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorAward / grant299299Form 4
2026-05-20HUNDMEJEAN MARTINAdirectorAward / grant173173Form 4
2026-05-20DONALD ARNOLD WdirectorAward / grant173173Form 4
2026-05-20ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorAward / grant173173Form 4
2026-05-20Akins Nicholas KdirectorAward / grant173173Form 4
2026-05-20Matthew C. HarrisdirectorAward / grant173173Form 4
2026-05-14ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorOption exercise8553,963Form 4
2026-05-14ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorOption exercise4950Form 4
2026-05-14Rucker Kim K.W.directorOption exercise4950Form 4
2026-05-14MALAVE JESUS JRdirectorOption exercise4951,842Form 4
2026-05-14ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorOption exercise8550Form 4
2026-05-14MALAVE JESUS JRdirectorOption exercise4950Form 4
2026-05-14Akins Nicholas KdirectorOption exercise4950Form 4
2026-05-14Matthew C. HarrisdirectorOption exercise4951,824Form 4
2026-05-14Reynolds Paula RosputdirectorOption exercise4950Form 4
2026-05-14Matthew C. HarrisdirectorOption exercise4950Form 4
2026-05-14Reynolds Paula RosputdirectorOption exercise4953,214Form 4
2026-05-14HUNDMEJEAN MARTINAdirectorOption exercise4952,037Form 4
2026-05-14DONALD ARNOLD WdirectorOption exercise4950Form 4
2026-05-14DONALD ARNOLD WdirectorOption exercise4951,824Form 4
2026-05-14Akins Nicholas KdirectorOption exercise4951,831Form 4
2026-05-14ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorOption exercise4953,108Form 4
2026-05-14HUNDMEJEAN MARTINAdirectorOption exercise4950Form 4
2026-05-14Rucker Kim K.W.directorOption exercise4951,824Form 4
2026-04-27Strazik ScottdirectorWithheld for tax12,273141,527Form 4
2026-04-27Strazik ScottdirectorWithheld for tax11,987152,282Form 4
2026-04-27Strazik ScottdirectorOption exercise21,754153,800Form 4
2026-04-27Strazik ScottdirectorOption exercise21,7540Form 4
2026-04-27Strazik ScottdirectorOption exercise22,742164,269Form 4
2026-04-27Strazik ScottdirectorOption exercise22,7420Form 4
2026-04-03Baert StevenofficerWithheld for tax4,11317,038Form 4
2026-04-03Baert StevenofficerOption exercise8,50521,151Form 4
2026-04-03Baert StevenofficerOption exercise8,5050Form 4
2026-03-01Strazik ScottdirectorWithheld for tax32,809126,988Form 4
2026-03-01Baert StevenofficerWithheld for tax10,25916,601Form 4
2026-03-01Piron PhilippeofficerWithheld for tax7,4509,695Form 4
2026-03-01Gray EricofficerWithheld for tax5,6299,773Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-27$15–50K
Matthew Robert Van EppsHousesale2026-06-172026-06-16$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-05-042026-04-29$15–50K
Josh GottheimerHousepurchase2026-03-162026-02-05$1–15K
Austin ScottHousesale2026-03-122026-02-17$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-03-102026-02-05$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-03-102026-02-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-06$15–50K
Jonathan JacksonHousepurchase2026-02-232026-01-30$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2025-11-102025-10-16$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2025-11-102025-10-23$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.