Issued 2026-09-25 at $957.63 · now $957.63 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, GEV has typically landed between $814.81 and $1231.73 — a range of −14.9% to +28.6% from the issuance price $957.63.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
606 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-03-27 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($957.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GEV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $957.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $957.63 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,026 (+7.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $930.74–$1,121
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $814.81–$1,232
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-06 | −27.9% | −27.9% | +2.7% |
| 2025-01-23 | −27.8% | −27.8% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-07 | −24.8% | −28.5% | +1.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-04 | +47.9% | +0.0% | +47.9% |
| 2025-04-21 | +43.7% | +0.0% | +43.7% |
| 2025-04-07 | +42.3% | +0.0% | +42.3% |
606 overlapping windows · 2024-03-27 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$354.17
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$786.27
- Analyst target · range $817.00–$1,450$1,250
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$957.63
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | Abate Victor | officer | Sale | 4,819 @ $948.08 | $4.6M | −72.4% of holding | +20.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,835 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Potvin Matthew Joseph | officer | Sale | 2,333 @ $1059.09 | $2.5M | −39.7% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,549 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Baert Steven | officer | Sale | 5,300 @ $850.00 | $4.5M | −29.5% of holding | +9.8% | −5.7% | 12,646 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-26 | Parks Kenneth Scott | officer | Sale | 3,300 @ $620.00 | $2.0M | −30.3% of holding | −5.2% | +32.7% | 7,590 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-28 | Zingoni Maria Victoria | officer | Sale | 18,803 @ $368.16 | $6.9M | −100.0% of holding | +24.4% | +32.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
295 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Rucker Kim K.W. | director | Award / grant | 173 | 173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | MALAVE JESUS JR | director | Award / grant | 173 | 173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Reynolds Paula Rosput | director | Award / grant | 173 | 173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | ANGEL STEPHEN F | director | Award / grant | 299 | 299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | HUNDMEJEAN MARTINA | director | Award / grant | 173 | 173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | DONALD ARNOLD W | director | Award / grant | 173 | 173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | ANGEL STEPHEN F | director | Award / grant | 173 | 173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Akins Nicholas K | director | Award / grant | 173 | 173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Matthew C. Harris | director | Award / grant | 173 | 173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | ANGEL STEPHEN F | director | Option exercise | 855 | 3,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | ANGEL STEPHEN F | director | Option exercise | 495 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Rucker Kim K.W. | director | Option exercise | 495 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MALAVE JESUS JR | director | Option exercise | 495 | 1,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | ANGEL STEPHEN F | director | Option exercise | 855 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MALAVE JESUS JR | director | Option exercise | 495 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Akins Nicholas K | director | Option exercise | 495 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Matthew C. Harris | director | Option exercise | 495 | 1,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Reynolds Paula Rosput | director | Option exercise | 495 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Matthew C. Harris | director | Option exercise | 495 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Reynolds Paula Rosput | director | Option exercise | 495 | 3,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | HUNDMEJEAN MARTINA | director | Option exercise | 495 | 2,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | DONALD ARNOLD W | director | Option exercise | 495 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | DONALD ARNOLD W | director | Option exercise | 495 | 1,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Akins Nicholas K | director | Option exercise | 495 | 1,831 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | ANGEL STEPHEN F | director | Option exercise | 495 | 3,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | HUNDMEJEAN MARTINA | director | Option exercise | 495 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Rucker Kim K.W. | director | Option exercise | 495 | 1,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Strazik Scott | director | Withheld for tax | 12,273 | 141,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Strazik Scott | director | Withheld for tax | 11,987 | 152,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Strazik Scott | director | Option exercise | 21,754 | 153,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Strazik Scott | director | Option exercise | 21,754 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Strazik Scott | director | Option exercise | 22,742 | 164,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Strazik Scott | director | Option exercise | 22,742 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Baert Steven | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,113 | 17,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Baert Steven | officer | Option exercise | 8,505 | 21,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Baert Steven | officer | Option exercise | 8,505 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Strazik Scott | director | Withheld for tax | 32,809 | 126,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Baert Steven | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,259 | 16,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Piron Philippe | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,450 | 9,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gray Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,629 | 9,773 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-05-04 | 2026-04-29 | $15–50K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-03-16 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Austin Scott | House | sale | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-05 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-06 | $15–50K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | purchase | 2026-02-23 | 2026-01-30 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-01-12 | 2025-12-19 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-16 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-23 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.