Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.29 · now $1.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GERN has typically landed between $1.01 and $1.74 — a range of −21.4% to +35.2% from the issuance price $1.29.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,000 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GERN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.29 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.28 (-1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.13–$1.42
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.01–$1.74
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2018-09-24 | −75.6% | −75.6% | +2.9% |
| 2018-09-26 | −75.6% | −75.8% | +0.0% |
| 2018-09-25 | −75.5% | −76.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2018-02-23 | +168.2% | +0.0% | +168.2% |
| 2018-02-22 | +152.9% | +0.0% | +152.9% |
| 2013-08-28 | +151.8% | −2.9% | +151.8% |
5,000 overlapping windows · 2006-09-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2028-06-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study Comparing Imetelstat Versus Best Available Therapy for the Treatment of Intermediate-2 or High-risk Myelofibrosis (MF) Who Have Not Responded to Janus Kinase (JAK)-Inhibitor Treatment (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | ROBERTSON MICHELLE | director | Sale | 9,855 @ $1.94 | $19K | −35.8% of holding | −16.2% | −30.7% | 17,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | LAWLIS V BRYAN | director | Purchase | 13,300 @ $1.18 | $16K | ownership Δ n/a | +28.7% | −28.9% | 13,300 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Ziegler James | officer | Purchase | 100,000 @ $1.60 | $160K | ownership Δ n/a | −0.4% | −29.4% | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Samuels Scott Alan | officer | Purchase | 15,000 @ $1.61 | $24K | +128.4% of holding | −0.4% | −29.4% | 26,682 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | SCARLETT JOHN A | director | Purchase | 12,500 @ $1.76 | $22K | ownership Δ n/a | −0.4% | −29.4% | 12,500 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Spiegel Robert J. | director | Award / grant | 6,103 | 205,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Molineaux Susan | director | Award / grant | 220,000 | 220,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | O'Farrell Elizabeth G. | director | Award / grant | 220,000 | 220,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | McDonald John F | director | Award / grant | 220,000 | 220,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Spiegel Robert J. | director | Award / grant | 220,000 | 220,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bir Dawn Carter | director | Award / grant | 220,000 | 220,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Williams Timothy | officer | Award / grant | 2,500,000 | 2,500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Spiegel Robert J. | director | Award / grant | 5,243 | 199,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Andrews Patricia S | director | Award / grant | 270,000 | 270,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Chinoporos Constantine | director | Award / grant | 270,000 | 270,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | ROBERTSON MICHELLE | director | Option exercise | 27,500 | 27,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | ROBERTSON MICHELLE | director | Option exercise | 27,500 | 82,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Eid Joseph | officer | Award / grant | 2,220,000 | 2,220,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | ROBERTSON MICHELLE | director | Award / grant | 1,660,000 | 1,660,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Spiegel Robert J. | director | Award / grant | 5,918 | 194,464 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | ElNawawi Ahmed | officer | Award / grant | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Spiegel Robert J. | director | Award / grant | 5,702 | 188,546 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Semerjian Harout | director | Award / grant | 7,000,000 | 7,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Semerjian Harout | director | Award / grant | 4,000,000 | 4,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Spiegel Robert J. | director | Award / grant | 5,540 | 182,844 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | LAWLIS V BRYAN | director | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Molineaux Susan | director | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Aggarwal Gaurav | director | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | McDonald John F | director | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Spiegel Robert J. | director | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | O'Farrell Elizabeth G. | director | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Bir Dawn Carter | director | Award / grant | 180,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Spiegel Robert J. | director | Award / grant | 4,913 | 177,304 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Samuels Scott Alan | officer | Award / grant | 104,000 | 104,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | GRETHLEIN ANDREW J | officer | Award / grant | 839,000 | 839,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | GRETHLEIN ANDREW J | officer | Award / grant | 140,000 | 140,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | SCARLETT JOHN A | director | Award / grant | 2,457,000 | 2,457,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | SCARLETT JOHN A | director | Award / grant | 410,000 | 410,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Ziegler James | officer | Award / grant | 89,000 | 89,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | ROBERTSON MICHELLE | director | Award / grant | 656,000 | 656,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | ROBERTSON MICHELLE | director | Award / grant | 110,000 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Ziegler James | officer | Award / grant | 529,000 | 529,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-18 | Samuels Scott Alan | officer | Award / grant | 621,000 | 621,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-31 | Spiegel Robert J. | director | Award / grant | 2,206 | 172,391 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.